USA vs Paraguay Prediction

World CupWorld World · Group Stage - 1
Cup
USA
4-1
Finished
HT 3-0
Paraguay
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood· Danny Makkelie, Netherlands 13/06/2026
USAUSA
4-1
Finished
ParaguayParaguay

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalGOODModel72%RiskMediumGap0.0%
USA Rest
6 days
Paraguay Rest
7 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%2.10
X
22%3.23
2
20%3.88
Double Chance
1X
80%1.25
X2
42%1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%2.05
No
47%1.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.79 + 1.23 = 3.02
Over 1.5
73%1.46
Over 2.5
48%2.48
Over 3.5
26%4.70
Under 1.5
27%2.62
Under 2.5
52%1.54
Under 3.5
74%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 3.9 = 9.5
Over 8.5
53%1.91
Over 9.5
47%2.43
Over 10.5
34%3.30
Under 8.5
47%1.81
Under 9.5
53%1.50
Under 10.5
66%1.29
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.1 = 3.8
Over 3.5
59%1.79
Over 4.5
35%2.48
Under 3.5
41%1.94
Under 4.5
65%1.49

Match Events

7'D. BobadillaOG
10'J. CaceresTripping
28'Goal Disallowed - offsideF. Balogun
31'F. BalogunAssist: C. Pulisic
45+5'F. BalogunAssist: M. Tillman
46'D. Bobadilla INMauricio out
46'C. Pulisic INS. Berhalter out
53'M. AlmironDiving
59'T. AdamsRoughing
62'A. Sanabria INA. Arce out
72'S. Dest INT. Weah out
72'F. Balogun INR. Pepi out
73'MauricioAssist: J. Enciso
79'D. GomezHolding
79'M. Almiron INR. Sosa out
79'J. Caceres ING. Velazquez out
80'D. Gomez INKaku out
82'M. Tillman ING. Reyna out
88'A. ArceRoughing
90+3'J. AlonsoHolding
90+8'G. ReynaAssist: A. Freeman

Lineups

USA
4-2-3-1Coach: Mauricio Pochettino
Paraguay
4-4-2Coach: Gustavo Alfaro
Matthew Freese24M. FreeseMatthew Freese
Alexander Freeman16A. FreemanAlexander Freeman
Chris Richards3C. RichardsChris Richards
Tim Ream13T. ReamTim Ream
Antonee Robinson5A. RobinsonAntonee Robinson
Tyler Adams4T. AdamsTyler Adams
Malik Tillman17M. TillmanMalik Tillman
Sergiño Dest2S. DestSergiño Dest
Weston McKennie8W. McKennieWeston McKennie
Christian Pulišić10C. PulišićChristian Pulišić
Folarin Balogun20F. BalogunFolarin Balogun
Orlando Gill12O. GillOrlando Gill
Juan Cáceres4J. CáceresJuan Cáceres
Gustavo Gómez15G. GómezGustavo Gómez
Omar Alderete3O. AldereteOmar Alderete
Junior Alonso6J. AlonsoJunior Alonso
Diego Gómez8D. GómezDiego Gómez
Andrés Cubas14A. CubasAndrés Cubas
Damián Bobadilla16D. BobadillaDamián Bobadilla
Miguel Almirón10M. AlmirónMiguel Almirón
Antonio Sanabria9A. SanabriaAntonio Sanabria
Julio Enciso19J. EncisoJulio Enciso

USA Substitutes

14Sebastian BerhalterM
21Tim WeahF
9Ricardo PepiF
7Giovanni ReynaM
1Matt TurnerG
25Chris BradyG
6Auston TrustyD
12Miles RobinsonD
22Mark McKenzieD
23Joe ScallyD
18Maximilian ArfstenM
15Cristian RoldánM
11Brenden AaronsonM
26Alex ZendejasF
19Haji WrightF

Paraguay Substitutes

11MauricioM
18Alex ArceF
2Gustavo VelázquezD
7Ramón SosaF
17Alejandro RomeroM
22Gastón OlveiraG
1Roberto FernándezG
5Fabián BalbuenaD
26Alexandro MaidanaD
13José CanaleD
20Braian OjedaM
24Gustavo CaballeroF
23Matías GalarzaM
21Gabriel ÁvalosF
25Isidro PittaF

Match Stats

USAParaguay
65%Ball Possession35%
3Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards5
16Total Shots9
6Shots on Goal1
6Shots off Goal3
13Shots Inside Box4
3Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots5
13Fouls17
2Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves3
596Total Passes320
508Passes Accurate230
85%Pass Accuracy72%

Team Comparison

USAUSA
ParaguayParaguay
1691Elo Rating 1591
2.01Attack 0.54
1.20Defense 1.94
54%Hit Rate 17%
11.1Shots per Game 6.7
3.5Shots on Target 1.8
5.1Corners per Game 2.3
1.6Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+100 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.02 goals
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

USAUSA
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.6 in second half)
ParaguayParaguay
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.4 vs 0.1 in second half)

Head to Head

Based on 1 historical meeting

USA 100%Draw 0%0% Paraguay
1Avg Goals
0%BTTS Rate
0%Over 2.5

Recent Form

USAUSA
3W0D2L
06/06/2026
USAGermany
12
L
31/05/2026
USASenegal
32
W
07/07/2025
USAMexico
12
L
03/07/2025
USAGuatemala
21
W
30/06/2025
USACosta Rica
4232
W
ParaguayParaguay
3W1D1L
06/06/2026
ParaguayNicaragua
40
W
10/09/2025
PeruParaguay
01
W
05/09/2025
ParaguayEcuador
00
D
11/06/2025
BrazilParaguay
10
L
06/06/2025
ParaguayUruguay
20
W

Referee Profile

Danny Makkelie, Netherlands · 6 matches analysed

4.2Avg Yellows
4.3Avg Cards
25.3Avg Fouls
Stricter than 82% of referees analysed

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group D

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1USAUSA32018:4+46LWW
2AustraliaAustralia31112:204DLW
3ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
4TürkiyeTürkiye31023:5-23WLL
#TeamMPGPts
1USAUSA38:46
2AustraliaAustralia32:24
3ParaguayParaguay32:44
4TürkiyeTürkiye33:53

Group Stage

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
2SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
6AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
7ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
8SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
9IranIran30303:303DDD
10South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
11ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
12UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Congo DRCongo DR34:34
2SwedenSweden37:74
3GhanaGhana32:24
4EcuadorEcuador32:24
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
6AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
7ParaguayParaguay32:44
8SenegalSenegal38:63
9IranIran33:33
10South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
11ScotlandScotland31:43
12UruguayUruguay33:42

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany13
Paraguay14
On penalties
Netherlands12
Morocco13
On penalties
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium21
Senegal20
After extra time
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia12
Egypt14
On penalties
Argentina12
Cape Verde Islands11
After extra time
Colombia1
Ghana0
Canada0
Morocco3
Paraguay0
France1
Brazil1
Norway2
Mexico2
England3
Portugal0
Spain1
USA1
Belgium4
Argentina3
Egypt2
Switzerland04
Colombia03
On penalties
France2
Morocco0
Spain2
Belgium1
Norway10
England11
After extra time
Argentina12
Switzerland10
After extra time
France0
Spain2
England1
Argentina2
Spain01
Argentina00
After extra time
South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany13
Paraguay14
On penalties
Netherlands12
Morocco13
On penalties
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium21
Senegal20
After extra time
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia12
Egypt14
On penalties
Argentina12
Cape Verde Islands11
After extra time
Colombia1
Ghana0

USA vs Paraguay Prediction

As a knockout-stage World Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

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Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. USA have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. USA and Paraguay have met 1 times recently, averaging 1 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.