U. Catolica vs D. La Serena Prediction

U. Catolica
3-3
Finished
HT 2-0
D. La Serena
Claro Arena, Santiago·Jose Cabero Rebolledo, Chile 26/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.40
SignalSTRONGModel71%SurpriseMediumGap+8.7%
Value Analysis
82%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.40
SignalSTRONGModel59%SurpriseMediumGap+14.9%
U. Catolica Rest
14 days
D. La Serena Rest
13 days

U. Catolica vs D. La Serena: result, form and history

U. Catolica and D. La Serena drew 3-3 in the Primera División on 26 Jul 2026. U. Catolica had gone in with the better form, having won 4 of their previous five against 2 for D. La Serena.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 7 previous meetings averaged 3.4 goals, and both sides scored in 3 of them. Referee Jose Cabero Rebolledo averages 4.06 cards a game, 1.34 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
80%1.40
X
6%4.65
2
14%7.00
Double Chance
1X
86%1.08
X2
20%2.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.75
No
42%1.95
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.35 + 0.84 = 3.19
Over 1.5
90%1.17
Over 2.5
60%1.57
Over 3.5
37%2.44
Under 1.5
10%4.60
Under 2.5
40%2.25
Under 3.5
63%1.52
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

7'I. RassoFoul
28'F. Zampedri(Penalty)
40'E. MenaAssist: J. Diaz
45+2'M. MarinUnsportsmanlike conduct
46'D. Rubio ING. Figueroa out
46'A. Oroz INS. Diaz out
53'J. Gutierrez INM. Pinto out
65'F. Zuqui INM. Palavecino out
65'D. Corral INJ. A. Martinez out
72'G. FigueroaAssist: J. Vargas
77'Y. Salazar INF. Dinamarca out
81'M. MarinAssist: G. Figueroa
82'J. Giani INA. Farias out
82'C. Cuevas INJ. Rossel out
86'G. FigueroaAssist: L. Alarcon
90+3'M. Marin INM. Velasquez out
90+9'F. Zampedri

Lineups

U. Catolica
4-2-3-1Coach: Daniel Garnero
D. La Serena
4-3-3Coach: Francisco Bozan
Avg rating6.82
Avg rating6.67
Darío Melo7.327D. Melo
Sebastián Arancibia7.36S. Arancibia
Daniel González5.92D. González
Juan Ignacio Díaz6.726J. Ignacio Díaz
Eugenio Mena6.33E. Mena
Fernando Zuqui7.08F. Zuqui
Jhojan Valencia6.920J. Valencia
Diego Corral6.925D. Corral
Cristián Cuevas7.615C. Cuevas
Justo Giani6.57J. Giani
Fernando ZampedriC8.39F. Zampedri
José Tapia5.931J. Tapia
Joaquín Gutiérrez6.316J. Gutiérrez
Lucas Alarcón6.65L. Alarcón
Ian Rasso5.934I. Rasso
Yahir Salazar6.017Y. Salazar
Gonzalo Escalante7.08G. Escalante
Francis Mac Allister7.34F. Mac Allister
Jeisson VargasC6.510J. Vargas
Alexander Oroz6.57A. Oroz
Matías Marín7.723M. Marín
Diego Rubio6.611D. Rubio

U. Catolica Substitutes

14Jimmy Martínez65'for D. Corral6.3
10Matías Palavecino65'for F. Zuqui6.7
5Agustín Farías82'for J. Giani6.3
18Juan Francisco Rossel82'for C. Cuevas6.3
12Francisco Valdés
28Bernardo Cerezo
39Nicolás L'Huiller
13Alfred Canales
22Martín Gómez

D. La Serena Substitutes

6Sebastián Díaz6.7
2Gonzalo Gabriel Figueroa
29Matías Pinto53'for J. Gutierrez6.3
26Fernando Dinamarca77'for Y. Salazar6.0
20Milovan Velásquez90+3'for M. Marin6.3
38Ignacio Sáez
28Joan Orellana
9Ángelo Henríquez
19Bastián Sandoval

Match Stats

U. CatolicaD. La Serena
49%Ball Possession51%
6Corner Kicks5
0Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots18
4Shots on Goal9
7Shots off Goal7
10Shots Inside Box9
5Shots Outside Box9
4Blocked Shots2
8Fouls6
7Offsides3
6Goalkeeper Saves1
401Total Passes425
317Passes Accurate335
79%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

U. CatolicaU. Catolica
D. La SerenaD. La Serena
1677Elo Rating 1539
0.83Attack 1.36
2.05Defense 1.55
27%Hit Rate 37%
11.2Shots per Game 11.9
2.9Shots on Target 4.6
3.6Corners per Game 4.8
2.6Cards per Game 3.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+138 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.2 goals
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

U. CatolicaU. Catolica
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
D. La SerenaD. La Serena
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

U. CatolicaU. Catolica4Wins · 57%
Draws114%
D. La SerenaD. La Serena2Wins · 29%
3.4Avg Goals
43%Both teams scored3 of 7
57%3+ goals4 of 7

Previous meetings

Primera División01/02/2026
D. La SerenaU. Catolica
22
Primera División08/11/2025
D. La SerenaU. Catolica
01
Primera División25/05/2025
U. CatolicaD. La Serena
13
Primera División10/09/2022
D. La SerenaU. Catolica
04
Primera División10/04/2022
U. CatolicaD. La Serena
02
Primera División13/11/2021
D. La SerenaU. Catolica
02
Primera División08/08/2021
U. CatolicaD. La Serena
43

Recent Form

U. CatolicaU. Catolica
9W0D1L
11/07/2026
San LuisU. Catolica
40
L
05/07/2026
U. CatolicaDeportes Copiapo
21
W
01/07/2026
U. CatolicaEverton de Vina
21
W
28/06/2026
U. CatolicaSan Luis
42
W
24/06/2026
Everton de VinaU. Catolica
13
W
20/06/2026
Deportes CopiapoU. Catolica
03
W
14/06/2026
U. CatolicaUniversidad de Concepcion
51
W
07/06/2026
U. CatolicaCobresal
51
W
31/05/2026
HuachipatoU. Catolica
03
W
29/05/2026
Boca JuniorsU. Catolica
01
W
D. La SerenaD. La Serena
3W2D5L
12/07/2026
CobreloaD. La Serena
10
L
05/07/2026
D. La SerenaAntofagasta
24
L
02/07/2026
CobresalD. La Serena
01
W
28/06/2026
D. La SerenaCobreloa
21
W
24/06/2026
D. La SerenaCobresal
00
D
21/06/2026
AntofagastaD. La Serena
42
L
13/06/2026
A. ItalianoD. La Serena
11
D
07/06/2026
D. La SerenaUnion La Calera
02
L
30/05/2026
D. La SerenaColo Colo
24
L
24/05/2026
D. La SerenaDeportes Limache
41
W

Referee Profile

Jose Cabero Rebolledo20 matches

4.06Cards per match
3.59Yellow cards per match
0.47Red cards per match
20.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jose Cabero Rebolledo4.06
Other referees5.40

4.06 cards a match, 1.34 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.40).

Cards come from 17 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Colo ColoColo Colo27194459:30+2961WWDLD
2Universidad de ChileUniversidad de Chile27156647:22+2551WLWWW
3U. CatolicaU. Catolica27154856:37+1949WWDLW
4Deportes LimacheDeportes Limache271241148:40+840LWWDL
5Everton de VinaEverton de Vina27117943:35+840LDLWW
6Coquimbo UnidoCoquimbo Unido261151039:35+438WWLWL
7PalestinoPalestino271151139:38+138LLDDL
8ConcepciónConcepción271151130:30038WWLDD
9D. La SerenaD. La Serena27910840:42-237WDWLL
10NublenseNublense27981031:41-1035LLWLL
11HuachipatoHuachipato26961134:41-733LDDWW
12O'HigginsO'Higgins27941432:42-1031LWDLL
13A. ItalianoA. Italiano27791128:36-830LLDDW
14CobresalCobresal27761439:50-1127LDDDW
15Universidad de ConcepcionUniversidad de Concepcion27751522:49-2726WLLDL
16Union La CaleraUnion La Calera27661524:43-1924WLWDW
#TeamMPGPts
1Colo ColoColo Colo2759:3061
2Universidad de ChileUniversidad de Chile2747:2251
3U. CatolicaU. Catolica2756:3749
4Deportes LimacheDeportes Limache2748:4040
5Everton de VinaEverton de Vina2743:3540
6Coquimbo UnidoCoquimbo Unido2639:3538
7PalestinoPalestino2739:3838
8ConcepciónConcepción2730:3038
9D. La SerenaD. La Serena2740:4237
10NublenseNublense2731:4135
11HuachipatoHuachipato2634:4133
12O'HigginsO'Higgins2732:4231
13A. ItalianoA. Italiano2728:3630
14CobresalCobresal2739:5027
15Universidad de ConcepcionUniversidad de Concepcion2722:4926
16Union La CaleraUnion La Calera2724:4324

About the U. Catolica vs D. La Serena forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

U. Catolica and D. La Serena in the Primera División table

In the Primera División table, U. Catolica are 3rd and D. La Serena 9th, 12 points apart. League goal record so far: U. Catolica 56-37, D. La Serena 40-42. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some of the data for this fixture is limited, so the model gives it a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.