Arouca vs Maritimo Prediction

Arouca
2-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Maritimo
Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca· Gustavo Correia, Portugal 29/08/2026
AroucaArouca
2-1
Finished
MaritimoMaritimo

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.25
SignalSOLIDModel50%RiskMediumGap+1.3%
Value Analysis
59%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Over 4.5
1.94
SignalGOODModel47%RiskMediumGap+11.8%
Arouca Rest
5 days
Maritimo Rest
7 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%2.18
X
24%3.25
2
26%3.40
Double Chance
1X
74%1.30
X2
50%1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.81
No
46%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.12 + 0.96 = 2.08
Over 1.5
15%1.34
Over 2.5
8%2.10
Over 3.5
5%3.67
Under 1.5
85%3.08
Under 2.5
92%1.73
Under 3.5
95%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4.1 = 9.5
Over 8.5
59%1.91
Over 9.5
49%2.40
Over 10.5
38%3.28
Under 8.5
41%1.82
Under 9.5
51%1.47
Under 10.5
62%1.25
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 3 = 5.3
Over 3.5
78%1.27
Over 4.5
59%1.48
Under 3.5
22%3.55
Under 4.5
41%2.44

Match Events

27'Martín Tejón
44'Espen van EeAssist: Alfonso Trezza
44'Raphael GuzzoDissent
55'Iván BarberoAssist: Pablo Gozálbez
62'Bryan Limbombe INSamuel Bamba out
70'Alfonso Trezza INDylan Nandín out
70'Iván Barbero INBrian Mansilla out
75'Dylan Nandín
78'Adrián Butzke INIsrael Isaac Ayuma out
78'Vladan Danilović INMaurice Boakye out
79'Pablo Gozálbez INMateo Flores out
79'Espen van Ee INPedro Santos out
87'Näis Djouahra INMario Climent out
87'Rafael Fernandes INNilton Varela out
90+2'Javi SánchezTime wasting

Lineups

Arouca
4-2-3-1Coach: Vasco Seabra
Maritimo
4-2-3-1Coach: Mitchell van der Gaag
I. de Arruabarrena12I. de ArruabarrenaI. de Arruabarrena
Tiago Esgaio28T. EsgaioTiago Esgaio
Javi Sánchez15J. SánchezJavi Sánchez
José Fontán3J. FontánJosé Fontán
O. Lebedenko18O. LebedenkoO. Lebedenko
E. van Ee6E. van EeE. van Ee
T. Fukui8T. FukuiT. Fukui
A. Trezza19A. TrezzaA. Trezza
Pablo Gozálbez10P. GozálbezPablo Gozálbez
N. Djouahra7N. DjouahraN. Djouahra
Barbero17BarberoBarbero
Alfonso Pastor13A. PastorAlfonso Pastor
Igor Julião2I. JuliãoIgor Julião
Rafael Fernandes4R. FernandesRafael Fernandes
Romain Correia44R. CorreiaRomain Correia
Paulo Henrique23P. HenriquePaulo Henrique
V. Danilović18V. DanilovićV. Danilović
Rodrigo Andrade6R. AndradeRodrigo Andrade
B. Limbombe35B. LimbombeB. Limbombe
Raphael Guzzo14R. GuzzoRaphael Guzzo
Martín Tejón10M. TejónMartín Tejón
Adrián Butzke17A. ButzkeAdrián Butzke

Arouca Substitutes

37Mario ClimentD
1J. VinarčíkG
5B. PopovićD
89Pedro SantosM
77S. ParkF
23D. NandínF
4Diogo MonteiroD
21Mateo FloresM
14Lee Hyun-JuM
24B. MansillaF
9F. MayuluF
71M. DuarteG

Maritimo Substitutes

21I. AlaniM
66I. AyumaM
27S. BambaF
30Fran VieitesG
5Nilton VarelaD
22G. SzalaiD
1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
90Maurice Osei BoakyeF
16F. SilvaM
68N. BatistaM

Match Stats

AroucaMaritimo
52%Ball Possession48%
2Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards1
17Total Shots12
7Shots on Goal4
8Shots off Goal5
10Shots Inside Box8
7Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots3
8Fouls9
3Goalkeeper Saves5
491Total Passes455
419Passes Accurate372
9Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

AroucaArouca
MaritimoMaritimo
1661Elo Rating 1578
1.22Attack 1.08
1.93Defense 0.64
34%Hit Rate 14%
11.3Shots per Game 9.2
3.8Shots on Target 2.8
3.2Corners per Game 3.4
1.9Cards per Game 2.1

Game State Tendencies

AroucaArouca
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
MaritimoMaritimo
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Based on 4 historical meetings

Arouca 31%Draw 46%23% Maritimo
2.3Avg Goals
46%BTTS Rate
42%Over 2.5

Recent Form

AroucaArouca
3W0D2L
23/08/2026
FC PortoArouca
20
L
16/08/2026
AroucaMoreirense
40
W
08/08/2026
GuimaraesArouca
01
W
01/08/2026
Lusitânia LourosaArouca
02
W
25/07/2026
Santa ClaraArouca
30
L
MaritimoMaritimo
3W2D0L
22/08/2026
MaritimoAcademico Viseu
22
D
16/08/2026
FamalicaoMaritimo
12
W
08/08/2026
MaritimoCasa Pia
10
W
29/07/2026
MaritimoEstrela
11
D
22/07/2026
MaritimoCamacha
20
W

Referee Profile

Gustavo Correia, Portugal · 6 matches analysed

4.3Avg Yellows
4.6Avg Cards
23.8Avg Fouls
Stricter than 48% of referees analysed

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto660015:2+1318WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica651021:4+1716WWWWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP642015:6+914DWWWW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara642011:4+714WWDWW
5AroucaArouca63128:5+310LDWLW
6EstrelaEstrela624014:12+210DWDWD
7SC BragaSC Braga53117:5+210WLWWD
8Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu62227:9-28WWLDL
9GIL VicenteGIL Vicente52124:407LLDWW
10MaritimoMaritimo62137:11-47LLLDW
11MoreirenseMoreirense62137:13-67WLLWL
12AlvercaAlverca61238:11-35WLDLD
13FamalicaoFamalicao60425:7-24DDDLL
14Vitória SCVitória SC61144:7-34LDLWL
15NacionalNacional61147:11-44LLLLW
16Rio AveRio Ave61145:14-94DLLWL
17EstorilEstoril60242:8-62LDLLL
18Casa PiaCasa Pia60151:15-141LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto615:218
2BenficaBenfica621:416
3Sporting CPSporting CP615:614
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara611:414
5AroucaArouca68:510
6EstrelaEstrela614:1210
7SC BragaSC Braga57:510
8Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu67:98
9GIL VicenteGIL Vicente54:47
10MaritimoMaritimo67:117
11MoreirenseMoreirense67:137
12AlvercaAlverca68:115
13FamalicaoFamalicao65:74
14Vitória SCVitória SC64:74
15NacionalNacional67:114
16Rio AveRio Ave65:144
17EstorilEstoril62:82
18Casa PiaCasa Pia61:151
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Arouca vs Maritimo Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Primeira Liga fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Primeira Liga

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Key Factors for This Match

Arouca and Maritimo have met 4 times recently, averaging 2.3 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.