Nacional vs Estrela Prediction

Nacional
2-3
Finished
HT 1-1
Estrela
Estádio da Madeira, Funchal· Carlos Macedo, Portugal 30/08/2026
NacionalNacional
2-3
Finished
EstrelaEstrela

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.67
SignalGOODModel40%RiskMediumGap+8.8%
Nacional Rest
7 days
Estrela Rest
15 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
41%2.32
X
29%3.25
2
30%3.08
Double Chance
1X
70%1.36
X2
59%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.72
No
45%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.28 + 1.06 = 2.34
Over 1.5
68%1.29
Over 2.5
45%1.95
Over 3.5
22%3.38
Under 1.5
32%3.33
Under 2.5
55%1.83
Under 3.5
78%1.29
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 3.7 = 9.3
Over 8.5
59%1.44
Over 9.5
49%1.79
Over 10.5
38%2.22
Under 8.5
41%2.53
Under 9.5
51%1.95
Under 10.5
62%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.3 = 3.9
Over 3.5
51%1.44
Over 4.5
31%1.91
Under 3.5
49%2.54
Under 4.5
69%1.81

Match Events

3'Wesley GasolinaAssist: W. Kokolo
40'F. Soares INM. Djalo out
45'Ze Vitor
45+1'I. Stoica(Penalty)
48'W. Kokolo
62'A. MarcusAssist: G. Doue
66'Pablo RuanAssist: Liziero
67'Robinho INJoan Jordan out
69'Daniel Junior INS. Gavriel out
69'Pablo Ruan INA. Obando out
72'I. Stoica INB. Souza out
78'W. Kokolo INM. Jensen out
79'Wesley Gasolina IND. I. de la Cruz out
83'L. AntonettiAssist: G. Doue
86'L. Antonetti
89'G. Doue INBernardo Schappo out

Lineups

Nacional
3-4-2-1Coach: Giao Joao
Estrela
4-3-3Coach: Pepa
Renato Marin1R. MarinRenato Marin
Léo Santos34L. SantosLéo Santos
Matheus Dias6M. DiasMatheus Dias
Ze Vitor38Z. VitorZe Vitor
Wesley Gasolina52W. GasolinaWesley Gasolina
Liziero28LizieroLiziero
Filipe Soares22F. SoaresFilipe Soares
Williams Kokolo21W. KokoloWilliams Kokolo
Miguel Baeza8M. BaezaMiguel Baeza
Daniel Júnior10D. JúniorDaniel Júnior
Pablo Messias Cardozo99P. Messias CardozoPablo Messias Cardozo
Léo Linck24L. LinckLéo Linck
Max Scholze21M. ScholzeMax Scholze
Luan Patrick30L. PatrickLuan Patrick
Stefan Leković5S. LekovićStefan Leković
Rafa Soares55R. SoaresRafa Soares
Lovro Zvonarek14L. ZvonarekLovro Zvonarek
Eddy Doué39E. DouéEddy Doué
Robinho8RobinhoRobinho
Abraham Marcus99A. MarcusAbraham Marcus
Leandro Antonetti37L. AntonettiLeandro Antonetti
Ianis Stoica10I. StoicaIanis Stoica

Nacional Substitutes

20Matchoi DjalóM
50KevynG
13João GonçalvesG
33Francisco GonçalvesD
7Markus JensenM
88Deivison Souza BritoM
23Mateus Jose IseppeM
17Fernando NavaM
31Danel DongmoM
2Daniel De la CruzD
11Stavros GavrielM
9Allen ObandoF

Estrela Substitutes

51Diogo PintoG
22David GriloG
17Jefferson EncadaD
4Bernardo SchappoD
79Atanas ChernevD
3Lucas MincarelliD
78Santiago SerraM
93BénitoM
71Emerson Pedro VangaM
80Alisson Souza de JesusF
19Joan JordánM
9Sydney van HooijdonkF

Match Stats

NacionalEstrela
50%Ball Possession50%
4Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards1
10Total Shots13
5Shots on Goal4
2Shots off Goal7
4Shots Inside Box8
6Shots Outside Box5
3Blocked Shots2
12Fouls9
1Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves3
371Total Passes366
306Passes Accurate302
82%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

NacionalNacional
EstrelaEstrela
1535Elo Rating 1606
0.94Attack 2.44
0.98Defense 0.96
14%Hit Rate 39%
9.8Shots per Game 13.6
2.7Shots on Target 5.2
2.8Corners per Game 4.0
0.9Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

NacionalNacional
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
EstrelaEstrela
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Nacional 23%Draw 19%58% Estrela
1.83Avg Goals
19%BTTS Rate
0%Over 2.5

Recent Form

NacionalNacional
1W2D2L
23/08/2026
Vitória SCNacional
10
L
16/08/2026
NacionalEstoril
20
W
10/08/2026
Santa ClaraNacional
22
D
23/07/2026
EstrelaNacional
20
L
22/07/2026
NacionalLeganes
00
D
EstrelaEstrela
2W3D0L
15/08/2026
AlvercaEstrela
22
D
08/08/2026
EstrelaSporting CP
22
D
01/08/2026
EstrelaAl-Nassr
42
W
29/07/2026
MaritimoEstrela
11
D
29/07/2026
EstrelaLusitano Évora 1911
10
W

Referee Profile

Carlos Macedo, Portugal · 6 matches analysed

3.8Avg Yellows
4.0Avg Cards
24.7Avg Fouls
Stricter than 15% of referees analysed

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto660015:2+1318WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica651021:4+1716WWWWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP642015:6+914DWWWW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara642011:4+714WWDWW
5AroucaArouca63128:5+310LDWLW
6EstrelaEstrela624014:12+210DWDWD
7SC BragaSC Braga53117:5+210WLWWD
8Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu62227:9-28WWLDL
9GIL VicenteGIL Vicente52124:407LLDWW
10MaritimoMaritimo62137:11-47LLLDW
11MoreirenseMoreirense62137:13-67WLLWL
12AlvercaAlverca61238:11-35WLDLD
13FamalicaoFamalicao60425:7-24DDDLL
14Vitória SCVitória SC61144:7-34LDLWL
15NacionalNacional61147:11-44LLLLW
16Rio AveRio Ave61145:14-94DLLWL
17EstorilEstoril60242:8-62LDLLL
18Casa PiaCasa Pia60151:15-141LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto615:218
2BenficaBenfica621:416
3Sporting CPSporting CP615:614
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara611:414
5AroucaArouca68:510
6EstrelaEstrela614:1210
7SC BragaSC Braga57:510
8Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu67:98
9GIL VicenteGIL Vicente54:47
10MaritimoMaritimo67:117
11MoreirenseMoreirense67:137
12AlvercaAlverca68:115
13FamalicaoFamalicao65:74
14Vitória SCVitória SC64:74
15NacionalNacional67:114
16Rio AveRio Ave65:144
17EstorilEstoril62:82
18Casa PiaCasa Pia61:151
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Nacional vs Estrela Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Primeira Liga fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Primeira Liga

ScorePredicts covers Portugal football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

Nacional and Estrela have met 5 times recently, averaging 1.83 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.