Nacional vs Estrela Prediction
Portugal · Regular Season - 4
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Nacional vs Estrela: the result in context
Estrela beat Nacional 3-2 in the Primeira Liga on 30 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their history points to a close game: 9 previous meetings produced 1.8 goals a game. Referee Carlos Macedo averages 4.50 cards a game, 0.99 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Nacional
Avg ratingAvg rating
1R. Marin
C34L. Santos
6M. Dias
38Z. Vitor
52W. Gasolina
28Liziero
22F. Soares
21W. Kokolo
8M. Baeza
10D. Júnior
99P. Messias Cardozo
24L. Linck
21M. Scholze
30L. Patrick
C5S. Leković
55R. Soares
14L. Zvonarek
39E. Doué
8Robinho
99A. Marcus
37L. Antonetti
10I. StoicaNacional Substitutes
Estrela Substitutes
Match Stats
NacionalEstrela Team Comparison
NacionalEstrelaAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Nacional- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Estrela- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings, all competitions
Nacional3Wins · 33%4Wins · 45%Previous meetings
23/07/2026EstrelaNacional
04/04/2026NacionalEstrela09/11/2025EstrelaNacional06/04/2025NacionalEstrela10/11/2024EstrelaNacional
21/05/2023EstrelaNacional15/01/2023NacionalEstrela16/04/2022EstrelaNacional04/12/2021NacionalEstrelaRecent Form
Nacional
Vitória SCNacionalNacional
Estoril
Santa ClaraNacionalEstrelaNacionalNacional
Leganes
TondelaNacionalNacional
LeixoesNacionalGuimaraesSanta ClaraNacionalNacional
AVSEstrela
AlvercaEstrelaEstrela
Sporting CPEstrela
Al-Nassr
MaritimoEstrelaEstrela
Lusitano Évora 1911Estrela
PortimonenseEstrelaNacionalEstrela
Casa PiaEstrela
Naval 1893
SC BragaEstrelaReferee Profile
Compared with other referees
4.50 cards a match, 0.99 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.49).
Cards come from 80 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27:5 | +22 | 33 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30:10 | +20 | 28 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24:11 | +13 | 24 | WWLWD |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16:8 | +8 | 21 | LWLWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13:8 | +5 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15:13 | +2 | 20 | LWWWW |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10:8 | +2 | 18 | WDLWW |
| 8 | SC Braga | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 | WWLLL |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13:18 | -5 | 14 | LWWLD |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15:14 | +1 | 13 | WLWLW |
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14:15 | -1 | 12 | DLLWW |
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17:22 | -5 | 10 | LLLLL |
| 13 | Nacional | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11:19 | -8 | 10 | WLWLL |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11:12 | -1 | 9 | LDWLD |
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9:21 | -12 | 8 | LLLDL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6:20 | -14 | 8 | DLWLW |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9:24 | -15 | 7 | LLLWL |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5:19 | -14 | 2 | LLLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 11 | 27:5 | 33 |
| 2 | Benfica | 11 | 30:10 | 28 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | 24:11 | 24 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | 16:8 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 13:8 | 20 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 11 | 15:13 | 20 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 11 | 10:8 | 18 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 11 | 13:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | 13:18 | 14 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 14:15 | 12 |
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | 17:22 | 10 |
| 13 | Nacional | 11 | 11:19 | 10 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 11 | 11:12 | 9 |
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | 6:20 | 8 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 11 | 9:24 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 5:19 | 2 |
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About the Nacional vs Estrela forecast
The forecasts for this Primeira Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Nacional and Estrela in the Primeira Liga table
In the Primeira Liga table, Nacional (13th) and Estrela (12th) are level on 10 points. League goal record so far: Nacional 11-19, Estrela 17-22. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.