FC Porto vs Arouca Prediction

FC Porto
2-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Arouca
Estádio do Dragão, Porto· Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal 23/08/2026
FC PortoFC Porto
2-0
Finished
AroucaArouca

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
83%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.19
SignalGOODModel66%RiskMediumGap-1.3%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.47
SignalSOLIDModel55%RiskMediumGap+4.3%
FC Porto Rest
8 days
Arouca Rest
7 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
69%1.25
X
20%5.85
2
11%11.00
Double Chance
1X
89%1.04
X2
31%3.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%2.15
No
46%1.65
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.19 + 0.69 = 2.88
Over 1.5
83%1.19
Over 2.5
59%1.64
Over 3.5
33%2.60
Under 1.5
17%4.50
Under 2.5
41%2.25
Under 3.5
67%1.47
Corners
Projected Corners: 7 + 3.1 = 10.1
Over 8.5
64%1.47
Over 9.5
53%1.81
Over 10.5
41%2.26
Under 8.5
36%2.48
Under 9.5
47%1.93
Under 10.5
59%1.57
Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

59'Goal cancelledJakub Kiwior
62'H. Lee INP. Gozalbez out
62'I. Barbero IND. Nandin out
67'G. VeigaAssist: William Gomes
72'Andre Silva IND. Gul out
72'E. van Ee INPedro Santos out
72'A. Trezza INB. Mansilla out
76'G. Veiga INHwang In-Beom out
76'William Gomes INB. Sainz out
83'Hwang In-beomFoul
86'B. SainzAssist: Pepe
88'J. Bednarek INN. Perez out
88'Tiago Esgaio INM. Flores out

Lineups

FC Porto
4-3-3Coach: Francesco Farioli
Arouca
4-2-3-1Coach: Vasco Seabra
D. Costa99D. CostaD. Costa
A. Costa20A. CostaA. Costa
J. Bednarek5J. BednarekJ. Bednarek
J. Kiwior4J. KiwiorJ. Kiwior
Zaidu12ZaiduZaidu
V. Froholdt8V. FroholdtV. Froholdt
P. Rosario13P. RosarioP. Rosario
G. Veiga10G. VeigaG. Veiga
William Gomes7W. GomesWilliam Gomes
Andre Silva19A. SilvaAndre Silva
Pepê11PepêPepê
I. De Arruabarrena12I. De ArruabarrenaI. De Arruabarrena
Tiago Esgaio28T. EsgaioTiago Esgaio
J. Sanchez15J. SanchezJ. Sanchez
J. Fontan3J. FontanJ. Fontan
O. Lebedenko18O. LebedenkoO. Lebedenko
E. van Ee6E. van EeE. van Ee
T. Fukui8T. FukuiT. Fukui
A. Trezza19A. TrezzaA. Trezza
H. Lee14H. LeeH. Lee
N. Djouahra7N. DjouahraN. Djouahra
I. Barbero17I. BarberoI. Barbero

FC Porto Substitutes

24J. CostaG
50J. AfonsoG
18N. PerezD
21D. PrpicD
74F. MouraD
6S. EustaquioM
16Hwang In-BeomM
22A. VarelaM
59T. AndradeF
27D. GulF
17B. SainzF
57D. CunhaF

Arouca Substitutes

1J. VinarcikG
71M. DuarteG
5B. PopovicD
37M. ClimentD
4D. MonteiroD
89Pedro SantosM
10P. GozalbezM
21M. FloresM
9F. MayuluF
24B. MansillaF
23D. NandinF
77S. ParkF

Match Stats

FC PortoArouca
53%Ball Possession47%
12Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards0
23Total Shots4
10Shots on Goal1
8Shots off Goal3
17Shots Inside Box2
6Shots Outside Box2
5Blocked Shots1
16Fouls8
5Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves8
461Total Passes414
394Passes Accurate360
85%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

FC PortoFC Porto
AroucaArouca
1871Elo Rating 1661
2.25Attack 1.22
2.08Defense 1.93
77%Hit Rate 34%
14.3Shots per Game 11.3
4.9Shots on Target 3.8
6.8Corners per Game 3.2
0.8Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+210 Elo
High Goal Expectancy2.87 goals
📈BTTS Trend41% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

FC PortoFC Porto
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 1 in first half)
AroucaArouca
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

FC Porto 86%Draw 0%14% Arouca
3.75Avg Goals
41%BTTS Rate
81%Over 2.5

Recent Form

FC PortoFC Porto
5W0D0L
15/08/2026
Rio AveFC Porto
02
W
09/08/2026
FC PortoAlverca
20
W
01/08/2026
FC PortoTorreense
10
W
25/07/2026
FC PortoAston Villa
21
W
16/05/2026
FC PortoSanta Clara
10
W
AroucaArouca
3W1D1L
16/08/2026
AroucaMoreirense
40
W
08/08/2026
GuimaraesArouca
01
W
01/08/2026
Lusitânia LourosaArouca
02
W
25/07/2026
Santa ClaraArouca
30
L
22/07/2026
FamalicaoArouca
00
D

Referee Profile

Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal · 6 matches analysed

4.2Avg Yellows
4.5Avg Cards
24.4Avg Fouls
Stricter than 38% of referees analysed

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto660015:2+1318WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica651021:4+1716WWWWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP642015:6+914DWWWW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara642011:4+714WWDWW
5AroucaArouca63128:5+310LDWLW
6EstrelaEstrela624014:12+210DWDWD
7SC BragaSC Braga53117:5+210WLWWD
8Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu62227:9-28WWLDL
9GIL VicenteGIL Vicente52124:407LLDWW
10MaritimoMaritimo62137:11-47LLLDW
11MoreirenseMoreirense62137:13-67WLLWL
12AlvercaAlverca61238:11-35WLDLD
13FamalicaoFamalicao60425:7-24DDDLL
14Vitória SCVitória SC61144:7-34LDLWL
15NacionalNacional61147:11-44LLLLW
16Rio AveRio Ave61145:14-94DLLWL
17EstorilEstoril60242:8-62LDLLL
18Casa PiaCasa Pia60151:15-141LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto615:218
2BenficaBenfica621:416
3Sporting CPSporting CP615:614
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara611:414
5AroucaArouca68:510
6EstrelaEstrela614:1210
7SC BragaSC Braga57:510
8Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu67:98
9GIL VicenteGIL Vicente54:47
10MaritimoMaritimo67:117
11MoreirenseMoreirense67:137
12AlvercaAlverca68:115
13FamalicaoFamalicao65:74
14Vitória SCVitória SC64:74
15NacionalNacional67:114
16Rio AveRio Ave65:144
17EstorilEstoril62:82
18Casa PiaCasa Pia61:151
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

FC Porto vs Arouca Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Primeira Liga fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Primeira Liga

ScorePredicts covers Portugal football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

FC Porto and Arouca have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.75 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.