AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction

AS Roma
4-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Fiorentina
Stadio Olimpico, Rome· Matteo Marcenaro, Italy 24/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.29
SignalSOLIDModel64%RiskMediumGap+4.4%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.70
SignalHIGHModel64%RiskMediumGap+14.5%
AS Roma Rest
9 days
Fiorentina Rest
9 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
66%1.70
X
22%3.83
2
12%5.00
Double Chance
1X
88%1.18
X2
34%2.13
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.83
No
49%1.89
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.28 + 0.85 = 3.13
Over 1.5
82%1.29
Over 2.5
58%1.91
Over 3.5
34%3.25
Under 1.5
18%3.50
Under 2.5
42%1.91
Under 3.5
66%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 3.8 = 9.3
Over 8.5
58%1.70
Over 9.5
46%2.19
Over 10.5
34%2.87
Under 8.5
42%2.05
Under 9.5
54%1.60
Under 10.5
66%1.36
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 3.2 = 5.1
Over 3.5
72%1.38
Over 4.5
55%1.92
Under 3.5
28%2.83
Under 4.5
45%1.82

Match Events

27'D. MalenAssist: P. Dybala
30'N. FagioliTripping
39'M. HermosoFoul
49'M. KoneHolding
52'D. MalenAssist: P. Dybala
53'R. Mora INM. Soule out
60'D. MalenAssist: P. Dybala
62'M. Brescianini INA. Jimenez out
62'N. Fagioli INC. Inao Oulai out
63'F. Mastantuono INM. Kean out
63'M. PellegrinoUnsportsmanlike conduct
68'D. Malen INS. Castro out
68'M. Hermoso INK. Koulierakis out
74'A. Atta INR. Mandragora out
79'P. Dybala INN. El Aynaoui out
79'M. Kone INN. Pisilli out
80'Joao Mario INV. Valdepenas out
86'N. Pisilli

Lineups

AS Roma
3-4-2-1Coach: Piero Gasperini Gian
Fiorentina
4-3-2-1Coach: Fabio Grosso
Mile Svilar99M. SvilarMile Svilar
Gianluca Mancini23G. ManciniGianluca Mancini
Evan Ndicka5E. NdickaEvan Ndicka
Mario Hermoso22M. HermosoMario Hermoso
Emanuele Lulli77E. LulliEmanuele Lulli
Bryan Cristante4B. CristanteBryan Cristante
Manu Koné17M. KonéManu Koné
Wesley43WesleyWesley
Paulo Dybala21P. DybalaPaulo Dybala
Rodrigo Mora86R. MoraRodrigo Mora
Donyell Malen14D. MalenDonyell Malen
David De Gea43D. De GeaDavid De Gea
Dodô2DodôDodô
Radu Drăguşin3R. DrăguşinRadu Drăguşin
Luca Ranieri6L. RanieriLuca Ranieri
João Mário17J. MárioJoão Mário
Cher Ndour27C. NdourCher Ndour
Nicolò Fagioli44N. FagioliNicolò Fagioli
Marco Brescianini4M. BrescianiniMarco Brescianini
Franco Mastantuono30F. MastantuonoFranco Mastantuono
Arthur Atta14A. AttaArthur Atta
Mateo Pellegrino32M. PellegrinoMateo Pellegrino

AS Roma Substitutes

18Matías SouléF
3Konstantinos KoulierakisD
9Santiago CastroF
8Neil El AynaouiM
61Niccolò PisilliM
70Giorgio De MarziG
95Pierluigi GolliniG
20Nahuel MolinaD
87Daniele GhilardiD
24Jan ZiółkowskiD
78Robinio VazF

Fiorentina Substitutes

20Álex JiménezD
42Christ Inao OulaïM
9Moise KeanF
8Rolando MandragoraM
53Oliver ChristensenG
19Luca LezzeriniG
33VieryD
71Eman KošpoD
5Marin PongračićD
21Víctor ValdepeñasD
72Brando MazzeoM
80Giovanni FabbianM
70Federico CrociF
11Albert GuðmundssonF

Match Stats

AS RomaFiorentina
61%Ball Possession39%
2Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards2
16Total Shots8
8Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal4
12Shots Inside Box2
4Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots0
15Fouls10
1Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves4
495Total Passes320
438Passes Accurate265
88%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

AS RomaAS Roma
FiorentinaFiorentina
1934Elo Rating 1734
2.38Attack 1.87
2.58Defense 0.61
77%Hit Rate 41%
17.9Shots per Game 15.7
6.4Shots on Target 6.1
6.0Corners per Game 4.1
1.4Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+200 Elo
High Goal Expectancy3.13 goals
📈BTTS Trend54% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

AS RomaAS Roma
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FiorentinaFiorentina
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.8 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

AS Roma 69%Draw 14%17% Fiorentina
3.52Avg Goals
54%BTTS Rate
81%Over 2.5

Recent Form

AS RomaAS Roma
1W2D2L
15/08/2026
Borussia DortmundAS Roma
22
D
08/08/2026
BrightonAS Roma
30
L
04/08/2026
Newport CountyAS Roma
14
W
01/08/2026
CardiffAS Roma
41
L
26/07/2026
CannesAS Roma
33
D
FiorentinaFiorentina
2W2D1L
14/08/2026
FiorentinaBenevento
41
W
06/08/2026
FiorentinaDeportivo La Coruna
11
D
01/08/2026
Real MadridFiorentina
22
D
29/07/2026
WatfordFiorentina
01
W
25/07/2026
QPRFiorentina
32
L

Referee Profile

Matteo Marcenaro, Italy · 9 matches analysed

4.2Avg Yellows
4.4Avg Cards
25.5Avg Fouls
Stricter than 57% of referees analysed

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1AS RomaAS Roma440012:1+1112WWWW
2InterInter440013:6+712WWWW
3ComoComo43109:4+510WWWD
4LazioLazio43106:3+310DWWW
5CagliariCagliari43014:2+29WWLW
6AC MilanAC Milan42207:4+38DDWW
7FrosinoneFrosinone42117:4+37DWWL
8JuventusJuventus42116:4+27LDWW
9SassuoloSassuolo42118:7+17WDWL
10NapoliNapoli42026:5+16WLLW
11AtalantaAtalanta42025:506LLWW
12LecceLecce42025:7-26WLLW
13UdineseUdinese41128:10-24LLWD
14TorinoTorino41034:7-33LWLL
15FiorentinaFiorentina41035:11-63WLLL
16BolognaBologna40132:5-31LDLL
17ParmaParma40132:6-41LDLL
18MonzaMonza40136:11-51LDLL
19GenoaGenoa40132:8-61DLLL
20VeneziaVenezia40044:11-70LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1AS RomaAS Roma412:112
2InterInter413:612
3ComoComo49:410
4LazioLazio46:310
5CagliariCagliari44:29
6AC MilanAC Milan47:48
7FrosinoneFrosinone47:47
8JuventusJuventus46:47
9SassuoloSassuolo48:77
10NapoliNapoli46:56
11AtalantaAtalanta45:56
12LecceLecce45:76
13UdineseUdinese48:104
14TorinoTorino44:73
15FiorentinaFiorentina45:113
16BolognaBologna42:51
17ParmaParma42:61
18MonzaMonza46:111
19GenoaGenoa42:81
20VeneziaVenezia44:110
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Serie A fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Serie A

ScorePredicts covers Italy football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

AS Roma have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. AS Roma and Fiorentina have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.52 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.