AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction

AS Roma
2-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Atalanta
Stadio Olimpico, Rome·A. Colombo 05/09/2026
AS RomaAS Roma
2-1
Finished
AtalantaAtalanta

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
60%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.91
SignalSOLIDModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+9.6%
AS Roma Rest
5 days
Atalanta Rest
5 days

AS Roma vs Atalanta: result, form and history

AS Roma beat Atalanta 2-1 in the Serie A on 5 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Atalanta have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.4 goals a game. Referee A. Colombo averages 5.01 cards a game, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
57%1.73
X
25%3.75
2
18%4.88
Double Chance
1X
82%1.18
X2
43%2.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.80
No
46%1.92
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.78 + 1.03 = 2.81
Over 1.5
77%1.29
Over 2.5
58%1.91
Over 3.5
33%3.23
Under 1.5
23%3.50
Under 2.5
42%1.91
Under 3.5
67%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 3.4 = 8.9
Over 8.5
51%1.69
Over 9.5
36%2.07
Over 10.5
25%2.75
Under 8.5
49%2.10
Under 9.5
64%1.70
Under 10.5
75%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.7 = 4.2
Over 3.5
61%1.70
Over 4.5
42%2.32
Under 3.5
39%2.06
Under 4.5
58%1.56

Match Events

40'Gian Piero GasperiniDissent
45'Gianluca Scamacca INNikola Krstović out
47'Éderson José dos Santos
54'Emanuele Lulli INNahuel Molina out
54'Rodrigo Mora INMatias Soule out
55'Maurizio SarriDissent
62'Gianluca Mancini INDaniele Ghilardi out
63'Donyell Malen INSantiago Thomas Castro out
66'Elif Elmas INNicola Zalewski out
66'Lazar Samardzic INMario Pašalić out
67'Evan Ndicka INLeonardo Balerdi out
73'Sead Kolašinac INDavide Zappacosta out
79'Éderson José dos Santos INFranck Kessié out
84'Raoul BellanovaDissent
89'Mario HermosoAssist: Matias Soule
90+3'Matias SouleAssist: Paulo Dybala

Lineups

AS Roma
3-4-1-2Coach: G. Gasperini
Atalanta
4-3-3Coach: M. Sarri
Avg rating7.04
Avg rating6.44
M. Svilar6.699M. Svilar
G. Mancini6.623G. Mancini
E. Ndicka6.75E. Ndicka
Hermoso8.222Hermoso
E. Lulli7.077E. Lulli
B. Cristante7.14B. Cristante
M. Koné6.917M. Koné
Wesley7.243Wesley
Rodrigo Mora6.586R. Mora
P. Dybala7.721P. Dybala
D. Malen6.714D. Malen
M. Carnesecchi8.129M. Carnesecchi
R. Bellanova6.116R. Bellanova
O. Kossounou6.63O. Kossounou
G. Scalvini6.742G. Scalvini
S. Kolašinac6.523S. Kolašinac
L. Samardžić6.310L. Samardžić
G. Gaetano6.270G. Gaetano
Éderson7.213Éderson
C. De Ketelaere6.917C. De Ketelaere
G. Scamacca6.59G. Scamacca
E. Elmas6.399E. Elmas

AS Roma Substitutes

18M. Soulé54'for Rodrigo Mora90+3'8.4
2D. Rensch
20N. Molina54'for Emanuele Lulli7.4
3K. Koulierakis
95P. Gollini
87D. Ghilardi62'for Gianluca Mancini6.8
15M. de Roon
70G. De Marzi
9S. Castro63'for Donyell Malen6.2
26L. Balerdi67'for Evan Ndicka6.8
68A. Arena
61N. Pisilli

Atalanta Substitutes

19F. Kessié79'for Éderson José dos Santos6.0
77D. Zappacosta73'for Sead Kolašinac6.0
31T. Kristensen
90N. Krstović45'for Gianluca Scamacca5.9
40R. Obrić
8Mario Pasalic66'for Lazar Samardzic6.4
18G. Raspadori
11J. Rowe
57M. Sportiello
59N. Zalewski66'for Elif Elmas5.6
47L. Bernasconi
22Thomas Pompei

Match Stats

AS RomaAtalanta
67%Ball Possession33%
14Corner Kicks1
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
39Total Shots6
10Shots on Goal2
20Shots off Goal3
28Shots Inside Box6
11Shots Outside Box0
9Blocked Shots1
9Fouls10
4Offsides4
1Goalkeeper Saves9
615Total Passes324
549Passes Accurate254
89%Pass Accuracy78%

Team Comparison

AS RomaAS Roma
AtalantaAtalanta
1933Elo Rating 1734
3.52Attack 1.32
0.85Defense 0.71
56%Hit Rate 0%
16.6Shots per Game 16.5
6.8Shots on Target 5.9
5.5Corners per Game 7.2
1.7Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+199 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.81 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

AS RomaAS Roma
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (2.1 vs 1.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AtalantaAtalanta
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

AS RomaAS Roma2Wins · 20%
Draws220%
AtalantaAtalanta6Wins · 60%
2.4Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A18/04/2026
AS RomaAtalanta
11
Serie A03/01/2026
AtalantaAS Roma
10
Serie A12/05/2025
AtalantaAS Roma
21
Serie A02/12/2024
AS RomaAtalanta
02
Serie A12/05/2024
AtalantaAS Roma
21
Serie A07/01/2024
AS RomaAtalanta
11
Serie A24/04/2023
AtalantaAS Roma
31
Serie A18/09/2022
AS RomaAtalanta
01
Serie A05/03/2022
AS RomaAtalanta
10
Serie A18/12/2021
AtalantaAS Roma
14

Recent Form

AS RomaAS Roma
6W2D2L
31/08/2026
LecceAS Roma
04
W
24/08/2026
AS RomaFiorentina
40
W
15/08/2026
Borussia DortmundAS Roma
22
D
08/08/2026
BrightonAS Roma
30
L
04/08/2026
Newport CountyAS Roma
14
W
01/08/2026
CardiffAS Roma
41
L
26/07/2026
CannesAS Roma
33
D
17/05/2026
AS RomaLazio
20
W
10/05/2026
ParmaAS Roma
23
W
04/05/2026
AS RomaFiorentina
40
W
AtalantaAtalanta
6W2D2L
31/08/2026
AtalantaBologna
10
W
27/08/2026
Hapoel Tel AvivAtalanta
01
W
23/08/2026
AtalantaSassuolo
21
W
20/08/2026
AtalantaHapoel Tel Aviv
00
D
14/08/2026
AtalantaAthletic Club
10
W
08/08/2026
FC Schalke 04Atalanta
03
W
02/08/2026
FeyenoordAtalanta
21
L
22/05/2026
FiorentinaAtalanta
11
D
17/05/2026
AtalantaBologna
01
L
10/05/2026
AC MilanAtalanta
23
W

Referee Profile

A. Colombo142 matches

5.01Cards per match
4.75Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
27.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

A. Colombo5.01
Other referees4.51

5.01 cards a match, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.51).

Cards come from 119 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LazioLazio1192025:9+1629DWWWW
2InterInter1191128:13+1528WLWWW
3AS RomaAS Roma1183031:10+2127WWWDW
4AC MilanAC Milan1173123:13+1024WWLWW
5ComoComo1172218:10+823LWWWW
6FrosinoneFrosinone1162324:15+920LWWDW
7JuventusJuventus1153315:12+318DWLWL
8BolognaBologna1152416:14+217WWWWL
9CagliariCagliari1151510:15-516WLLLL
10NapoliNapoli1143418:14+415DLWDL
11TorinoTorino1142515:17-214DLLWW
12AtalantaAtalanta1142517:20-314WLDDL
13GenoaGenoa1141611:16-513LWWWL
14LecceLecce1131712:22-1010DLLLW
15FiorentinaFiorentina1123617:25-89DWDLL
16ParmaParma112279:17-88LWDLL
17SassuoloSassuolo1122716:29-138LLLLL
18MonzaMonza1121817:25-87LLLLW
19VeneziaVenezia112098:21-136WLLLW
20UdineseUdinese1112812:25-135LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1LazioLazio1125:929
2InterInter1128:1328
3AS RomaAS Roma1131:1027
4AC MilanAC Milan1123:1324
5ComoComo1118:1023
6FrosinoneFrosinone1124:1520
7JuventusJuventus1115:1218
8BolognaBologna1116:1417
9CagliariCagliari1110:1516
10NapoliNapoli1118:1415
11TorinoTorino1115:1714
12AtalantaAtalanta1117:2014
13GenoaGenoa1111:1613
14LecceLecce1112:2210
15FiorentinaFiorentina1117:259
16ParmaParma119:178
17SassuoloSassuolo1116:298
18MonzaMonza1117:257
19VeneziaVenezia118:216
20UdineseUdinese1112:255
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the AS Roma vs Atalanta forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

AS Roma and Atalanta in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, AS Roma are 3rd and Atalanta 12th, 13 points apart. League goal record so far: AS Roma 31-10, Atalanta 17-20. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

AS Roma have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.