Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Prediction

BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen·Florian Badstubner 18/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.19
SignalSTRONGModel61%SurpriseMediumGap-3.2%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Over 1.5
1.52
SignalGOODModel70%SurpriseMediumGap+8.7%
Bayer Leverkusen Rest
2 days
SC Freiburg Rest
2 days

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: the result in context

Bayer Leverkusen beat SC Freiburg 2-1 in the Bundesliga on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.9 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 9. Referee Florian Badstubner averages 3.63 cards a game, 0.58 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%1.64
X
23%4.35
2
19%4.63
Double Chance
1X
81%1.19
X2
42%2.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%1.50
No
37%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.26 + 1.1 = 3.36
Over 1.5
85%1.11
Over 2.5
65%1.44
Over 3.5
47%2.17
Under 1.5
15%5.75
Under 2.5
35%2.69
Under 3.5
53%1.73
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4.2 = 9.5
Over 8.5
58%1.49
Over 9.5
46%1.90
Over 10.5
36%2.35
Under 8.5
42%2.46
Under 9.5
54%1.90
Under 10.5
64%1.53
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.5 = 4.5
Over 3.5
65%2.02
Over 4.5
46%2.21
Under 3.5
35%1.77
Under 4.5
54%1.61

Match Events

14'Derry Lionel ScherhantAssist: Philipp Treu
19'Ibrahim MazaAssist: Patrik Schick
39'Philipp TreuFoul
59'Afonso Moreira INNathan Tella out
64'Philipp Treu INLukas Kübler out
65'Keisuke Goto INLucas Höler out
73'Moussa Diaby INMalik Tillman out
76'Patrik SchickAssist: Ibrahim Maza
77'Yannick Engelhardt INPatrick Osterhage out
77'Jan-Niklas Beste INCyriaque Irié out
84'Ibrahim Maza INJonas Hofmann out
89'Derry Lionel Scherhant INVincenzo Grifo out

Lineups

Bayer Leverkusen
4-2-3-1Coach: Carles Martínez
SC Freiburg
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Schuster
Avg rating6.82
Avg rating6.48
M. Flekken6.91M. Flekken
J. Quansah6.54J. Quansah
E. Tapsoba6.812E. Tapsoba
F. Medina6.52F. Medina
Miguel Gutiérrez6.63M. Gutiérrez
Aleix García6.724A. García
E. Fernández6.76E. Fernández
M. Diaby6.319M. Diaby
I. Maza8.530I. Maza
Afonso Moreira6.39A. Moreira
P. Schick8.714P. Schick
M. Backhaus6.81M. Backhaus
P. Treu6.729P. Treu
M. Ginter6.728M. Ginter
P. Lienhart6.93P. Lienhart
J. Makengo6.833J. Makengo
M. Eggestein6.48M. Eggestein
Y. Engelhardt6.016Y. Engelhardt
J. Beste6.319J. Beste
K. Goto5.942K. Goto
D. Scherhant8.17D. Scherhant
I. Matanović6.131I. Matanović

Bayer Leverkusen Substitutes

8R. Andrich
28J. Blaswich
22V. Boniface
7J. Hofmann84'for Ibrahim Maza6.2
5L. Badé
17Lucas Vázquez
15T. Oermann
23N. Tella59'for Afonso Moreira6.6
10M. Tillman73'for Moussa Diaby6.2

SC Freiburg Substitutes

30C. Günter
9L. Höler65'for Keisuke Goto6.3
22Cyriaque Kalou Irié77'for Jan-Niklas Beste6.6
17L. Kübler64'for Philipp Treu6.2
21F. Müller
6P. Osterhage77'for Yannick Engelhardt6.1
37M. Rosenfelder
20R. Yamamoto
32V. Grifo89'for Derry Lionel Scherhant6.0

Match Stats

Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
49%Ball Possession51%
4Corner Kicks3
0Yellow Cards1
12Total Shots11
5Shots on Goal2
4Shots off Goal8
7Shots Inside Box8
5Shots Outside Box3
3Blocked Shots1
12Fouls5
1Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves3
491Total Passes507
416Passes Accurate429
85%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
1928Elo Rating 1874
2.85Attack 2.38
2.15Defense 1.48
100%Hit Rate 56%
16.8Shots per Game 16.5
7.1Shots on Target 5.8
5.1Corners per Game 5.0
1.1Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.37 goals
📈BTTS Trend90% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.7 vs 1.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen5Wins · 50%
Draws330%
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg2Wins · 20%
3.9Avg Goals
90%Both teams scored9 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

Bundesliga07/03/2026
SC FreiburgBayer Leverkusen
33
Bundesliga26/10/2025
Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
20
Bundesliga04/05/2025
SC FreiburgBayer Leverkusen
22
Bundesliga21/12/2024
Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
51
Bundesliga17/03/2024
SC FreiburgBayer Leverkusen
23
Bundesliga29/10/2023
Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
21
Bundesliga26/02/2023
SC FreiburgBayer Leverkusen
11
Bundesliga03/09/2022
Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
23
Bundesliga14/05/2022
Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
21
Bundesliga19/12/2021
SC FreiburgBayer Leverkusen
21

Referee Profile

Florian Badstubner174 matches

3.63Cards per match
3.46Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
22.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Florian Badstubner3.63
Other referees4.21

3.63 cards a match, 0.58 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.21).

Cards come from 152 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München642022:5+1714WDWWD
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund642011:4+714DDWWW
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg641115:6+913LWDWW
4Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen641116:9+713WWWDW
5FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05631214:10+410WLWLW
6SV ElversbergSV Elversberg631212:11+110WLDLW
7RB LeipzigRB Leipzig630316:11+59LWLWL
8Werder BremenWerder Bremen623112:1209DDWDW
9Hamburger SVHamburger SV63036:15-99WWWLL
10FC AugsburgFC Augsburg622216:12+48LDLDW
11Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt622210:16-68WLDWL
121. FC Köln1. FC Köln62138:11-37LWLDL
13VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart62048:10-26LWLLW
141899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim620411:14-36WLLWL
15FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0461234:7-35LLDWD
16SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0761235:9-45DLWLL
17Union BerlinUnion Berlin61235:17-125DWLLL
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach60068:20-120LLLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg forecast

The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga table

In the Bundesliga table, Bayer Leverkusen (4th) and SC Freiburg (3rd) are level on 13 points. League goal record so far: Bayer Leverkusen 16-9, SC Freiburg 15-6. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Bayer Leverkusen have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.