Coritiba vs Palmeiras Prediction

Coritiba
1-3
Finished
HT 0-2
Palmeiras
Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba·Anderson Daronco, Brazil 23/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
81%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Over 3.5
1.34
SignalSTRONGModel45%SurpriseMediumGap+12.7%
Coritiba Rest
53 days
Palmeiras Rest
52 days

Coritiba vs Palmeiras: the result in context

Palmeiras beat Coritiba 3-1 in the Serie A on 22 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Palmeiras have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game. Referee Anderson Daronco averages 4.49 cards a game, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
23%4.25
X
29%3.31
2
48%1.94
Double Chance
1X
52%1.85
X2
77%1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.95
No
46%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.17 + 1.36 = 2.53
Over 1.5
74%1.37
Over 2.5
50%2.20
Over 3.5
31%3.92
Under 1.5
26%2.95
Under 2.5
50%1.67
Under 3.5
69%1.23
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.8 + 4.9 = 8.7
Over 8.5
51%1.36
Over 9.5
37%1.57
Over 10.5
28%1.98
Under 8.5
49%2.95
Under 9.5
63%2.23
Under 10.5
72%1.75
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.9 + 2.8 = 5.7
Over 3.5
81%1.34
Over 4.5
64%1.69
Under 3.5
19%2.87
Under 4.5
36%2.00

Match Events

9'MauricioAssist: Ramón Sosa
15'Ramón SosaArgument
19'Mauricio
38'Alexander BarbozaFoul
45'Thiago SantosFoul
46'Sebastian Gomez INVini Paulista out
59'Joaquín Lavega INLucas Ronier out
65'Renato Marques INPaulo Roberto out
65'Bruno Melo INFelipe Jonatan out
67'Ramón SosaAssist: Joaquín Piquerez
68'Paulo RobertoAssist: Josué
77'Thiago Santos INJoão Pedro Chermont out
77'Tinga INBrian Ocampo out
79'KhellvenFoul
79'Mauricio INEmiliano Martínez out
80'Jhon Arias INRiquelme Fillipi out
90'Andreas Pereira INLucas Evangelista out
90'Ramón Sosa INHeittor out

Lineups

Coritiba
4-2-3-1Coach: Seabra Fernando
Palmeiras
3-4-1-2Coach: Ferreira Abel
Avg rating6.69
Avg rating7.08
Pedro Rangel6.022P. Rangel
Tinga6.32Tinga
Tiago Cóser5.923T. Cóser
Jacy Maranhão6.955J. Maranhão
Bruno Melo6.326B. Melo
Thiago Santos6.321T. Santos
Sebastian GomezC6.319S. Gomez
Joaquín Lavega6.37J. Lavega
Josué8.610Josué
Breno Lopes6.677B. Lopes
Renato Marques6.378R. Marques
Carlos Miguel7.51C. Miguel
Murilo7.026Murilo
Gustavo GómezC7.315G. Gómez
Alexander Barboza6.22A. Barboza
Khellven6.312Khellven
Andreas Pereira7.58A. Pereira
Marlon Freitas7.317M. Freitas
Joaquín Piquerez6.622J. Piquerez
Jhon Arias6.711J. Arias
Mauricio8.518Mauricio
Ramón Sosa8.219R. Sosa

Coritiba Substitutes

36Vini Paulista46'for Sebastian Gomez6.9
11Lucas Ronier59'for Joaquín Lavega7.5
6Felipe Jonatan65'for Bruno Melo6.3
18Paulo Roberto65'for Renato Marques68'7.7
44João Pedro Chermont77'for Thiago Santos6.7
17Brian Ocampo77'for Tinga6.9
1Pedro Morisco
3Maicon
4Rodrigo Moledo
50Vitor Gonçalves Tissi
39Gustavo
20Keno

Palmeiras Substitutes

32Emiliano Martínez79'for Mauricio6.5
37Riquelme Fillipi80'for Jhon Arias6.5
30Lucas Evangelista90'for Andreas Pereira
39Heittor90'for Ramón Sosa
21Kaique
14Marcelo Lomba
56Arthur Gabriel
43Luis Benedetti
3Bruno Fuchs
45Erick Belé
48Larson
29Miguel Cinoncelli Bilong

Match Stats

CoritibaPalmeiras
51%Ball Possession49%
8Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards3
17Total Shots13
6Shots on Goal6
8Shots off Goal4
6Shots Inside Box5
11Shots Outside Box8
3Blocked Shots3
10Fouls16
0Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves5
436Total Passes435
384Passes Accurate379
88%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

CoritibaCoritiba
PalmeirasPalmeiras
1599Elo Rating 1874
0.60Attack 2.18
2.23Defense 2.59
23%Hit Rate 66%
12.5Shots per Game 17.3
3.6Shots on Target 5.6
5.1Corners per Game 5.9
2.4Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CoritibaCoritiba
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.5 vs 0.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
PalmeirasPalmeiras
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.5 vs 0.7 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

CoritibaCoritiba0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
PalmeirasPalmeiras4Wins · 100%
3.0Avg Goals
25%Both teams scored1 of 4
50%3+ goals2 of 4

Previous meetings

Serie A22/10/2023
CoritibaPalmeiras
02
Serie A04/06/2023
PalmeirasCoritiba
31
Serie A07/10/2022
PalmeirasCoritiba
40
Serie A12/06/2022
CoritibaPalmeiras
02

Recent Form

CoritibaCoritiba
3W3D4L
30/05/2026
FlamengoCoritiba
30
L
26/05/2026
CoritibaBahia
32
W
17/05/2026
SantosCoritiba
03
W
14/05/2026
CoritibaSantos
02
L
09/05/2026
CoritibaInternacional
22
D
02/05/2026
VitoriaCoritiba
41
L
26/04/2026
GremioCoritiba
10
L
23/04/2026
SantosCoritiba
00
D
19/04/2026
CoritibaAtletico-MG
20
W
12/04/2026
BotafogoCoritiba
22
D
PalmeirasPalmeiras
5W4D1L
31/05/2026
PalmeirasChapecoense-sc
10
W
29/05/2026
PalmeirasJunior
41
W
24/05/2026
FlamengoPalmeiras
03
W
21/05/2026
PalmeirasCerro Porteno
01
L
17/05/2026
PalmeirasCruzeiro
11
D
14/05/2026
JacuipensePalmeiras
14
W
10/05/2026
RemoPalmeiras
11
D
06/05/2026
Sporting CristalPalmeiras
02
W
02/05/2026
PalmeirasSantos
11
D
30/04/2026
Cerro PortenoPalmeiras
11
D

Referee Profile

Anderson Daronco308 matches

4.49Cards per match
4.25Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
27.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Anderson Daronco4.49
Other referees5.20

4.49 cards a match, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.20).

Cards come from 240 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Coritiba vs Palmeiras forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Coritiba and Palmeiras in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Palmeiras are 2nd and Coritiba 12th, 31 points apart. League goal record so far: Coritiba 40-51, Palmeiras 62-23. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Palmeiras have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.