Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Prediction

Primera División - AperturaUruguay Uruguay · Torneo Intermedio - 7
Defensor Sporting
2-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Cerro
Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo·Esteban Ostojich, Uruguay 04/08/2026
Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
2-1
Finished
CerroCerro

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.44
SignalGOODModel37%SurpriseHighGap+6.8%
Defensor Sporting Rest
9 days
Cerro Rest
8 days

Defensor Sporting vs Cerro: result, form and history

Defensor Sporting beat Cerro 2-1 in the Primera División - Apertura on 3 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Cerro had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for Defensor Sporting.

Their 9 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Referee Esteban Ostojich averages 6.62 cards a game, 1.42 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
47%1.67
X
31%3.35
2
22%5.03
Double Chance
1X
78%1.13
X2
53%2.05
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%2.23
No
50%1.60
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.68 + 0.92 = 2.60
Over 1.5
71%1.44
Over 2.5
47%2.36
Over 3.5
29%4.50
Under 1.5
29%2.62
Under 2.5
53%1.53
Under 3.5
71%1.17
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

17'Damián Suárez
29'Damián Suárez INLeonardo Pais out
30'Jairo Amaro
33'Martín Rabuñal
37'Nicolás Medina
46'Alejandro Severo INMateo Argüello out
46'Brahian Alemán INBruno Morales out
52'Nicolás Wunsch
64'Agustín Miranda INRodrigo Mederos out
65'Francisco Bregante
65'Nicolás Medina INTomás Pozzo out
71'Brian Montenegro INFacundo Castro out
73'Juan Cruz Guasone
74'Tomás Pozzo
81'José Neris INAlan Torterolo out
81'Nicolás Wunsch INLautaro Navarro out
85'Lautaro Navarro
90'Francisco Bregante INTiago Rijo out

Lineups

Defensor Sporting
4-3-2-1Coach: Mauricio Larriera
Cerro
4-3-3Coach: Alejandro Cappuccio
Kevin Dawson12K. Dawson
Lucas Agazzi11L. Agazzi
Lucas De los Santos24L. De los Santos
Guillermo De los Santos3G. De los Santos
Axel Frugone15A. Frugone
Nicolás Wunsch8N. Wunsch
Martín Rabuñal55M. Rabuñal
Germán Barrios5G. Barrios
Brian Montenegro26B. Montenegro
Nicolás Medina7N. Medina
José Neris9J. Neris
Yonatan Irrazábal12Y. Irrazábal
Damián Suárez22D. Suárez
Juan Cruz Guasone16J. Cruz Guasone
Nahuel Arena21N. Arena
Francisco Bregante6F. Bregante
Jairo Amaro31J. Amaro
Alejo Macelli5A. Macelli
Agustín Miranda8A. Miranda
Cristian Barros27C. Barros
Brahian Alemán10B. Alemán
Alejandro Severo7A. Severo

Defensor Sporting Substitutes

29Tomás Pozzo65'for Nicolás Medina74'
77Facundo Castro71'for Brian Montenegro
22Alan Torterolo81'for José Neris
99Lautaro Navarro81'for Nicolás Wunsch85'
1Lucas Machado
2Edgar Elizalde
20Mateo Caballero
25Diego Abella
27Juan Manuel Jorge
16Alex Perdomo

Cerro Substitutes

70Leonardo Pais29'for Damián Suárez
4Mateo Argüello46'for Alejandro Severo
9Bruno Morales46'for Brahian Alemán
32Rodrigo Mederos64'for Agustín Miranda
33Tiago Rijo90'for Francisco Bregante
40Diego Capdevila
17Gianni Rodríguez
19Emiliano Sosa
35Pablo Nongoy
14Nahuel Soria

Team Comparison

Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
CerroCerro
1454Elo Rating 1462
1.53Attack 1.08
0.74Defense 1.24
0%Hit Rate 19%
6.9Shots per Game 8.7
3.9Shots on Target 4.7
4.3Corners per Game 2.6
3.5Cards per Game 4.3

AI Insights

📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
CerroCerro
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting5Wins · 56%
Draws222%
CerroCerro2Wins · 22%
2.4Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
44%3+ goals4 of 9

Previous meetings

Primera División - Apertura05/04/2026
CerroDefensor Sporting
10
Primera División - Apertura23/06/2025
Defensor SportingCerro
21
Primera División - Apertura14/04/2025
Defensor SportingCerro
32
Primera División - Apertura25/02/2024
Defensor SportingCerro
50
Primera División - Apertura08/04/2023
Defensor SportingCerro
11
Segunda División04/12/2021
Defensor SportingCerro
01
Segunda División30/11/2021
CerroDefensor Sporting
12
Segunda División23/09/2021
Defensor SportingCerro
20
Segunda División11/06/2021
CerroDefensor Sporting
00

Recent Form

Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
1W4D5L
25/07/2026
Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo
12
L14/07/2026
Cerro LargoDefensor Sporting
11
D
04/07/2026
CruzeiroDefensor Sporting
20
L
07/06/2026
Defensor SportingBoston River
11
D
30/05/2026
Racing MontevideoDefensor Sporting
00
D
24/05/2026
Defensor SportingPenarol
02
L
17/05/2026
Central EspanolDefensor Sporting
21
L
10/05/2026
Defensor SportingJuventud
12
L
05/05/2026
PenarolDefensor Sporting
11
D
28/04/2026
Defensor SportingProgreso
10
W
CerroCerro
3W1D6L
26/07/2026
CerroRacing Montevideo
10
W
12/07/2026
Liverpool MontevideoCerro
12
W07/06/2026
CerroPenarol
01
L
30/05/2026
Cerro LargoCerro
20
L
24/05/2026
CerroCentral Espanol
10
W
16/05/2026
Boston RiverCerro
41
L
11/05/2026
Club NacionalCerro
40
L
02/05/2026
CerroDeportivo Maldonado
01
L
26/04/2026
Central EspanolCerro
31
L
19/04/2026
CerroAtletico Torque
11
D

Referee Profile

Esteban Ostojich180 matches

6.62Cards per match
6.24Yellow cards per match
0.38Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Esteban Ostojich6.62
Other referees5.20

6.62 cards a match, 1.42 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.20).

Cards come from 111 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División - Apertura 2026

Primera: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol35199752:28+2465LDLWL
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado35189854:32+2263LDWWL
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque351961059:41+1863WDLDL
4Club NacionalClub Nacional351941253:42+1161LWLLW
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo351612745:31+1460WDWWW
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo351611847:31+1659DLWLD
7WanderersWanderers351491242:44-251WLLLW
8Albion FCAlbion FC351381447:44+347WWWDD
9JuventudJuventud3510111437:43-641DDWLL
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol351181635:48-1341WLDWW
11Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting359121435:43-839WDWLD
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo359101633:41-837LLDDW
13Boston RiverBoston River351071834:47-1337LWLWW
14CerroCerro351071829:53-2437LDDWL
15ProgresoProgreso351052031:49-1835LWLLD
16DanubioDanubio356141529:45-1632WDDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol3552:2865
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3554:3263
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque3559:4163
4Club NacionalClub Nacional3553:4261
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3545:3160
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo3547:3159
7WanderersWanderers3542:4451
8Albion FCAlbion FC3547:4447
9JuventudJuventud3537:4341
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol3535:4841
11Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting3535:4339
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo3533:4137
13Boston RiverBoston River3534:4737
14CerroCerro3529:5337
15ProgresoProgreso3531:4935
16DanubioDanubio3529:4532

Primera: Promedios

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol72431514118:62+56144LDLWL
2Club NacionalClub Nacional72431415129:75+54140LWLLW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado35189854:32+2263LDWWL
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7234221698:68+30124DLWLD
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7230231984:69+15113WDWWW
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque72321624113:92+21112WDLDL
7JuventudJuventud7228182682:820102DDWLL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7227192677:81-4100WDWLD
9Albion FCAlbion FC351381447:44+347WWWDD
10Boston RiverBoston River7224202884:86-292LWLWW
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7221232874:82-886LLDDW
12Central EspanolCentral Espanol351181635:48-1341WLDWW
13CerroCerro7222183262:95-3383LDDWL
14WanderersWanderers7220223067:91-2482WLLLW
15DanubioDanubio7216272970:86-1675WDDDL
16ProgresoProgreso7220143869:109-4074LWLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol72118:62144
2Club NacionalClub Nacional72129:75140
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3554:3263
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7298:68124
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7284:69113
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque72113:92112
7JuventudJuventud7282:82102
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7277:81100
9Albion FCAlbion FC3547:4447
10Boston RiverBoston River7284:8692
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7274:8286
12Central EspanolCentral Espanol3535:4841
13CerroCerro7262:9583
14WanderersWanderers7267:9182
15DanubioDanubio7270:8675
16ProgresoProgreso7269:10974

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol751112:3+916LDLWL
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo73227:5+211LLDDW
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo72414:3+110WDWWW
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo72325:509DLWLD
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol72324:409WLDWW
6CerroCerro73046:10-49LDDWL
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting71336:9-36WDWLD
8Boston RiverBoston River71245:10-55LWLWW
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol712:316
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo77:511
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo74:310
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo75:59
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol74:49
6CerroCerro76:109
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting76:96
8Boston RiverBoston River75:105

Primera: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1594223:14+931WDWWW
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1592424:16+829LDWWL
3Albion FCAlbion FC1584326:16+1028WWWDD
4PenarolPenarol1583423:16+727LDLWL
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1573523:22+124WLDWW
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1565422:16+623WDLDL
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1571726:21+522LWLLW
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1556413:11+221WDWLD
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1555520:18+220DLWLD
10WanderersWanderers1562716:21-520WLLLW
11DanubioDanubio1546517:21-418WDDDL
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1552816:19-317LLDDW
13Boston RiverBoston River1552814:20-617LWLWW
14JuventudJuventud1543817:22-515DDWLL
15ProgresoProgreso1524912:23-1110LWLLD
16CerroCerro152498:24-1610LDDWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1523:1431
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1524:1629
3Albion FCAlbion FC1526:1628
4PenarolPenarol1523:1627
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1523:2224
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1522:1623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1526:2122
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1513:1121
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1520:1820
10WanderersWanderers1516:2120
11DanubioDanubio1517:2118
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1516:1917
13Boston RiverBoston River1514:2017
14JuventudJuventud1517:2215
15ProgresoProgreso1512:2310
16CerroCerro158:2410

Primera: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1393122:8+1430DLWLD
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1391326:14+1228WDLDL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1382319:13+626LWLLW
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1364318:10+822LDWWL
5PenarolPenarol1365217:9+822LDLWL
6Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1354418:14+419WDWWW
7ProgresoProgreso1361613:15-219LWLLD
8JuventudJuventud1346312:10+218DDWLL
9CerroCerro1353515:19-418LDDWL
10WanderersWanderers1344514:19-516WLLLW
11Boston RiverBoston River1343615:17-215LWLWW
12Albion FCAlbion FC1341815:20-513WWWDD
13Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1333716:23-712WDWLD
14DanubioDanubio132477:15-810WDDDL
15Cerro LargoCerro Largo1316610:17-79LLDDW
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol132298:22-148WLDWW
#TeamMPGPts
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1322:830
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1326:1428
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1319:1326
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1318:1022
5PenarolPenarol1317:922
6Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1318:1419
7ProgresoProgreso1313:1519
8JuventudJuventud1312:1018
9CerroCerro1315:1918
10WanderersWanderers1314:1916
11Boston RiverBoston River1315:1715
12Albion FCAlbion FC1315:2013
13Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1316:2312
14DanubioDanubio137:1510
15Cerro LargoCerro Largo1310:179
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol138:228
PromotionRelegation

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About the Defensor Sporting vs Cerro forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Defensor Sporting and Cerro in the Primera División - Apertura table

In the Primera División - Apertura table, Defensor Sporting are 11th and Cerro 14th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Defensor Sporting 35-43, Cerro 29-53. The full standings are on the Primera División - Apertura Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.