Penarol vs Cerro Largo Prediction
Uruguay · Torneo Intermedio - 7
Leodan Frankin Gonzalez Cabrera, Uruguay 01/08/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.72SignalGOODModel42%RiskHighGap+9.4%
Penarol Rest
14 days
Cerro Largo Rest
7 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
156%1.57
X25%3.70
219%5.50
Double Chance
1X81%1.11
X244%2.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes46%2.04
No54%1.68
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.45 + 0.82 = 2.27
Over 1.564%1.31
Over 2.537%2.00
Over 3.518%3.50
Under 1.536%3.17
Under 2.563%1.72
Under 3.582%1.26
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
24'S. Marcel
34'A. Hernandez
39'Lucas Hernandez
54'A. Hernandez
58'M. Arezo
61'N. Herrera INF. Romero out
61'J. Cabrera INL. Angulo out
61'A. Hernandez INJ. Rodriguez out
64'G. Viera INA. de Luca out
64'A. Pandiani INE. de Leon out
71'C. Jaime INB. Alvarez out
71'E. Darias INT. Olase out
74'B. Barboza
81'S. Marcel INN. Ramos out
84'S. Assis INE. Jourdan out
84'D. Daguerre INB. Barone out
Lineups
PenarolCerro Largo
Coach: Ignacio OrdonezPenarol Starting XI
29Washington AguerreG
34Nahuel HerreraD
36Brian BarbozaD
27Lucas HernándezD
6Lucas FerreiraD
11Cristian JaimeM
7Javier CabreraM
8Nicolás FernándezM
13Eduardo DariasM
99Abel HernándezF
19Matías ArezoF
Cerro Largo Starting XI
12Pedro GonzalezG
14Lucas CorreaD
3Alexis PiegasD
17Alexander HernandezD
20Santiago FrancaD
10Axel PandianiM
5Santiago MarcelM
7Gustavo VieraM
8Mario GarcíaM
15Sebastián AssisM
18Diego DaguerreF
Penarol Substitutes
4Franco RomeroD
33Jonathan RodríguezM
77Luis Miguel AnguloM
16Tomas OlaseM
40Brandon AlvarezF
1Sebastián BritosG
28Ignacio AlegreD
3Mauricio LemosD
93Diego LaxaltM
9Facundo BatistaF
Cerro Largo Substitutes
26Elías de LeónF
11Alfonso de LucaF
28Nicolás RamosD
25Emiliano JourdanM
9Borys BaroneF
24Lukas GonzálezG
6Julián PouD
19Axel PradoD
21Ezequiel CabralM
22Nicolas BertochiM
Team Comparison
PenarolCerro Largo1665Elo Rating 1497
2.26Attack 0.73
2.18Defense 1.93
64%Hit Rate 0%
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+167 Elo
📈BTTS Trend66% in H2H
Game State Tendencies
Penarol- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.8 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Cerro Largo- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
Head to Head
Based on 5 historical meetings
Penarol 44%Draw 37%19% Cerro Largo
2.69Avg Goals
66%BTTS Rate
44%Over 2.5
Recent Form
Penarol2W1D2L
18/07/2026Penarol
Boston River
Racing MontevideoPenarol
CerroPenarol
PenarolBoston River30
W12/07/2026Racing MontevideoPenarol11
D07/06/2026CerroPenarol01
W02/06/2026Penarol
Central Espanol
PenarolCentral Espanol01
L28/05/2026Penarol
Santa Fe
PenarolSanta Fe01
LCerro Largo3W2D0L
25/07/2026Central EspanolCerro LargoCerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool MontevideoCerro Largo
Central EspanolCerro Largo01
W14/07/2026Cerro LargoDefensor Sporting11
D09/06/2026Liverpool MontevideoCerro Largo00
D30/05/2026Cerro LargoCerro
Cerro LargoCerro20
W23/05/2026Cerro LargoBoston River
Cerro LargoBoston River30
WReferee Profile
Leodan Frankin Gonzalez Cabrera, Uruguay · 3 matches analysed
5.0Avg Yellows
5.2Avg Cards
23.1Avg Fouls
Stricter than 90% of referees analysed
League Table
Primera: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 46:23 | +23 | 55 | WDWWL |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 44:27 | +17 | 52 | LWDWL |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 35:22 | +13 | 52 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Atletico Torque | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 47:31 | +16 | 50 | WWWDL |
| 5 |  Club Nacional | 29 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 43:38 | +5 | 46 | LWLLW |
| 6 |  Wanderers | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 36:35 | +1 | 44 | WLDWL |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 37:27 | +10 | 42 | DWWDL |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30:33 | -3 | 38 | LDLWW |
| 9 |  Juventud | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35:39 | -4 | 35 | LLWLL |
| 10 |  Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 37:38 | -1 | 34 | WLDLD |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 28:32 | -4 | 33 | WWLLL |
| 12 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 25:33 | -8 | 32 | WLDLW |
| 13 | Cerro | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 23:43 | -20 | 32 | LLLDD |
| 14 | Boston River | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 28:40 | -12 | 30 | WLLDD |
| 15 |  Danubio | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 24:38 | -14 | 26 | LWDDL |
| 16 |  Progreso | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 23:42 | -19 | 25 | LWDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 28 | 46:23 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 44:27 | 52 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 28 | 35:22 | 52 |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 27 | 47:31 | 50 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 29 | 43:38 | 46 |
| 6 | Wanderers | 29 | 36:35 | 44 |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 28 | 37:27 | 42 |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 28 | 30:33 | 38 |
| 9 | Juventud | 29 | 35:39 | 35 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 29 | 37:38 | 34 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 29 | 28:32 | 33 |
| 12 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 25:33 | 32 |
| 13 | Cerro | 29 | 23:43 | 32 |
| 14 | Boston River | 29 | 28:40 | 30 |
| 15 | Danubio | 29 | 24:38 | 26 |
| 16 | Progreso | 29 | 23:42 | 25 |
Primera: Promedios
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 65 | 41 | 11 | 13 | 112:57 | +55 | 134 | WDWWL |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 66 | 38 | 14 | 14 | 119:71 | +48 | 125 | LWLLW |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 44:27 | +17 | 52 | LWDWL |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 65 | 29 | 20 | 16 | 88:64 | +24 | 107 | DWWDL |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 65 | 28 | 21 | 16 | 74:60 | +14 | 105 | WWWWD |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 64 | 28 | 15 | 21 | 101:82 | +19 | 99 | WWWDL |
| 7 | Juventud | 66 | 27 | 15 | 24 | 80:78 | +2 | 96 | LLWLL |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 66 | 25 | 18 | 23 | 67:71 | -4 | 93 | WLDLW |
| 9 | Central Espanol | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30:33 | -3 | 38 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Boston River | 66 | 22 | 19 | 25 | 78:79 | -1 | 85 | WLLDD |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 66 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 69:73 | -4 | 82 | WWLLL |
| 12 | Cerro | 66 | 21 | 16 | 29 | 56:85 | -29 | 78 | LLLDD |
| 13 | Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 37:38 | -1 | 34 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Wanderers | 66 | 18 | 21 | 27 | 61:82 | -21 | 75 | WLDWL |
| 15 | Danubio | 66 | 14 | 27 | 25 | 65:79 | -14 | 69 | LWDDL |
| 16 | Progreso | 66 | 17 | 13 | 36 | 61:102 | -41 | 64 | LWDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 65 | 112:57 | 134 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 66 | 119:71 | 125 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 44:27 | 52 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 65 | 88:64 | 107 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 65 | 74:60 | 105 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 64 | 101:82 | 99 |
| 7 | Juventud | 66 | 80:78 | 96 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 66 | 67:71 | 93 |
| 9 | Central Espanol | 28 | 30:33 | 38 |
| 10 | Boston River | 66 | 78:79 | 85 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 66 | 69:73 | 82 |
| 12 | Cerro | 66 | 56:85 | 78 |
| 13 | Albion FC | 29 | 37:38 | 34 |
| 14 | Wanderers | 66 | 61:82 | 75 |
| 15 | Danubio | 66 | 65:79 | 69 |
| 16 | Progreso | 66 | 61:102 | 64 |
Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | +9 | 16 | WDWWL |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | +2 | 11 | WWLLL |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 10 | WWWWD |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 9 | DWWDL |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 9 | LDLWW |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 9 | LLLDD |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 6 | WLDLW |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 5 | WLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 5:10 | 5 |
Primera: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | +9 | 31 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | +8 | 29 | LWDWL |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | +10 | 28 | WLDLD |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | +7 | 27 | WDWWL |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | +1 | 24 | LDLWW |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 23 | WWWDL |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | +5 | 22 | LWLLW |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | +2 | 21 | WLDLW |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 20 | DWWDL |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 | WLDWL |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 | LWDDL |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 | WWLLL |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 | WLLDD |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 | LLWLL |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 | LWDDL |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 | LLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 8:24 | 10 |
Primera: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14:4 | +10 | 15 | WWWDL |
| 2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:4 | +8 | 13 | DWWDL |
| 3 | Cerro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 13 | LLLDD |
| 4 | Penarol | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11:4 | +7 | 12 | WDWWL |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:6 | +4 | 12 | LLWLL |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 11 | WWWWD |
| 7 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:5 | +3 | 11 | LWDWL |
| 8 | Club Nacional | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 11 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Wanderers | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 | WLDWL |
| 10 | Progreso | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5:8 | -3 | 9 | LWDDL |
| 11 | Boston River | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 8 | WLLDD |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5:8 | -3 | 5 | WWLLL |
| 13 | Central Espanol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3:7 | -4 | 5 | LDLWW |
| 14 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6:13 | -7 | 5 | WLDLW |
| 15 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2:8 | -6 | 4 | LWDDL |
| 16 | Albion FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5:14 | -9 | 0 | WLDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 5 | 14:4 | 15 |
| 2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 6 | 12:4 | 13 |
| 3 | Cerro | 7 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 4 | Penarol | 6 | 11:4 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 10:6 | 12 |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 6 | 8:5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 8:5 | 11 |
| 8 | Club Nacional | 7 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 9 | Wanderers | 7 | 8:10 | 9 |
| 10 | Progreso | 7 | 5:8 | 9 |
| 11 | Boston River | 7 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 13 | Central Espanol | 6 | 3:7 | 5 |
| 14 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 6:13 | 5 |
| 15 | Danubio | 7 | 2:8 | 4 |
| 16 | Albion FC | 7 | 5:14 | 0 |
PromotionRelegation
Penarol vs Cerro Largo Prediction
Our AI model has analysed this Primera División - Apertura fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About Primera División - Apertura
ScorePredicts covers Uruguay football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.
Key Factors for This Match
Penarol and Cerro Largo have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.69 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.