Penarol vs Cerro Largo Prediction

Primera División - AperturaUruguay Uruguay · Torneo Intermedio - 7
Penarol
3-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Cerro Largo
Leodan Frankin Gonzalez Cabrera, Uruguay 01/08/2026
PenarolPenarol
3-0
Finished
Cerro LargoCerro Largo

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.72
SignalSOLIDModel42%SurpriseHighGap+9.4%
Penarol Rest
14 days
Cerro Largo Rest
7 days

Penarol vs Cerro Largo: result, form and history

Penarol beat Cerro Largo 3-0 in the Primera División - Apertura on 1 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 9 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Referee Leodan Frankin Gonzalez Cabrera averages 6.74 cards a game, 1.20 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
56%1.57
X
25%3.70
2
19%5.50
Double Chance
1X
81%1.11
X2
44%2.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%2.04
No
54%1.68
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.45 + 0.82 = 2.27
Over 1.5
64%1.30
Over 2.5
37%2.00
Over 3.5
18%3.50
Under 1.5
36%3.15
Under 2.5
63%1.72
Under 3.5
82%1.26
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

24'S. Marcel
34'A. Hernandez
39'Lucas Hernandez
54'A. Hernandez
58'M. Arezo
61'N. Herrera INF. Romero out
61'J. Cabrera INL. Angulo out
61'A. Hernandez INJ. Rodriguez out
64'G. Viera INA. de Luca out
64'A. Pandiani INE. de Leon out
71'C. Jaime INB. Alvarez out
71'E. Darias INT. Olase out
74'B. Barboza
81'S. Marcel INN. Ramos out
84'S. Assis INE. Jourdan out
84'D. Daguerre INB. Barone out

Lineups

Penarol
Coach: Diego Aguirre
Cerro Largo
Coach: Ignacio Ordonez

Penarol Starting XI

29Washington Aguerre
34Nahuel Herrera61'replaced by F. Romero
36Brian Barboza74'
27Lucas Hernández39'
6Lucas Ferreira
11Cristian Jaime71'replaced by B. Alvarez
7Javier Cabrera61'replaced by L. Angulo
8Nicolás Fernández
13Eduardo Darias71'replaced by T. Olase
99Abel Hernández34'54'61'replaced by J. Rodriguez
19Matías Arezo58'

Cerro Largo Starting XI

12Pedro Gonzalez
14Lucas Correa
3Alexis Piegas
17Alexander Hernandez
20Santiago Franca
10Axel Pandiani64'replaced by E. de Leon
5Santiago Marcel24'81'replaced by N. Ramos
7Gustavo Viera64'replaced by A. de Luca
8Mario García
15Sebastián Assis84'replaced by E. Jourdan
18Diego Daguerre84'replaced by B. Barone

Penarol Substitutes

4Franco Romero61'for N. Herrera
33Jonathan Rodríguez61'for A. Hernandez
77Luis Miguel Angulo61'for J. Cabrera
16Tomas Olase71'for E. Darias
40Brandon Alvarez71'for C. Jaime
1Sebastián Britos
28Ignacio Alegre
3Mauricio Lemos
93Diego Laxalt
9Facundo Batista

Cerro Largo Substitutes

26Elías de León64'for A. Pandiani
11Alfonso de Luca64'for G. Viera
28Nicolás Ramos81'for S. Marcel
25Emiliano Jourdan84'for S. Assis
9Borys Barone84'for D. Daguerre
24Lukas González
6Julián Pou
19Axel Prado
21Ezequiel Cabral
22Nicolas Bertochi

Team Comparison

PenarolPenarol
Cerro LargoCerro Largo
1635Elo Rating 1464
0.41Attack 0.89
1.97Defense 1.69
0%Hit Rate 23%
10.8Shots per Game 5.7
3.0Shots on Target 1.9
4.6Corners per Game 3.7
4.5Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+171 Elo
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

PenarolPenarol
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Cerro LargoCerro Largo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

PenarolPenarol4Wins · 45%
Draws333%
Cerro LargoCerro Largo2Wins · 22%
2.6Avg Goals
56%Both teams scored5 of 9
44%3+ goals4 of 9

Previous meetings

Primera División - Apertura12/05/2026
Cerro LargoPenarol
23
Primera División - Apertura01/06/2025
Cerro LargoPenarol
11
Primera División - Apertura31/03/2025
PenarolCerro Largo
02
Primera División - Apertura19/02/2024
Cerro LargoPenarol
12
Primera División - Apertura09/04/2023
Cerro LargoPenarol
00
Primera División - Apertura04/06/2022
PenarolCerro Largo
01
Primera División - Apertura06/08/2021
Cerro LargoPenarol
01
CONMEBOL Sudamericana14/04/2021
PenarolCerro Largo
41
CONMEBOL Sudamericana07/04/2021
Cerro LargoPenarol
22

Recent Form

PenarolPenarol
5W3D2L
18/07/2026
PenarolBoston River
30
W12/07/2026
Racing MontevideoPenarol
11
D07/06/2026
CerroPenarol
01
W
02/06/2026
PenarolCentral Espanol
01
L
28/05/2026
PenarolSanta Fe
01
L
24/05/2026
Defensor SportingPenarol
02
W
22/05/2026
PenarolCorinthians
11
D
16/05/2026
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
21
W
12/05/2026
Cerro LargoPenarol
23
W
08/05/2026
PlatensePenarol
11
D
Cerro LargoCerro Largo
4W2D4L
25/07/2026
Central EspanolCerro Largo
01
W14/07/2026
Cerro LargoDefensor Sporting
11
D09/06/2026
Liverpool MontevideoCerro Largo
00
D
30/05/2026
Cerro LargoCerro
20
W
23/05/2026
Cerro LargoBoston River
30
W
17/05/2026
Racing MontevideoCerro Largo
10
L
12/05/2026
Cerro LargoPenarol
23
L
03/05/2026
ProgresoCerro Largo
01
W
26/04/2026
Cerro LargoRacing Montevideo
01
L
20/04/2026
Boston RiverCerro Largo
10
L

Referee Profile

Leodan Frankin Gonzalez Cabrera46 matches

6.74Cards per match
6.23Yellow cards per match
0.51Red cards per match
27.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Leodan Frankin Gonzalez Cabrera6.74
Other referees5.54

6.74 cards a match, 1.20 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.54).

Cards come from 35 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División - Apertura 2026

Primera: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol35199752:28+2465LDLWL
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado35189854:32+2263LDWWL
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque351961059:41+1863WDLDL
4Club NacionalClub Nacional351941253:42+1161LWLLW
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo351612745:31+1460WDWWW
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo351611847:31+1659DLWLD
7WanderersWanderers351491242:44-251WLLLW
8Albion FCAlbion FC351381447:44+347WWWDD
9JuventudJuventud3510111437:43-641DDWLL
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol351181635:48-1341WLDWW
11Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting359121435:43-839WDWLD
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo359101633:41-837LLDDW
13Boston RiverBoston River351071834:47-1337LWLWW
14CerroCerro351071829:53-2437LDDWL
15ProgresoProgreso351052031:49-1835LWLLD
16DanubioDanubio356141529:45-1632WDDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol3552:2865
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3554:3263
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque3559:4163
4Club NacionalClub Nacional3553:4261
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3545:3160
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo3547:3159
7WanderersWanderers3542:4451
8Albion FCAlbion FC3547:4447
9JuventudJuventud3537:4341
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol3535:4841
11Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting3535:4339
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo3533:4137
13Boston RiverBoston River3534:4737
14CerroCerro3529:5337
15ProgresoProgreso3531:4935
16DanubioDanubio3529:4532

Primera: Promedios

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol72431514118:62+56144LDLWL
2Club NacionalClub Nacional72431415129:75+54140LWLLW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado35189854:32+2263LDWWL
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7234221698:68+30124DLWLD
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7230231984:69+15113WDWWW
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque72321624113:92+21112WDLDL
7JuventudJuventud7228182682:820102DDWLL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7227192677:81-4100WDWLD
9Albion FCAlbion FC351381447:44+347WWWDD
10Boston RiverBoston River7224202884:86-292LWLWW
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7221232874:82-886LLDDW
12Central EspanolCentral Espanol351181635:48-1341WLDWW
13CerroCerro7222183262:95-3383LDDWL
14WanderersWanderers7220223067:91-2482WLLLW
15DanubioDanubio7216272970:86-1675WDDDL
16ProgresoProgreso7220143869:109-4074LWLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol72118:62144
2Club NacionalClub Nacional72129:75140
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3554:3263
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7298:68124
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7284:69113
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque72113:92112
7JuventudJuventud7282:82102
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7277:81100
9Albion FCAlbion FC3547:4447
10Boston RiverBoston River7284:8692
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7274:8286
12Central EspanolCentral Espanol3535:4841
13CerroCerro7262:9583
14WanderersWanderers7267:9182
15DanubioDanubio7270:8675
16ProgresoProgreso7269:10974

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol751112:3+916LDLWL
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo73227:5+211LLDDW
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo72414:3+110WDWWW
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo72325:509DLWLD
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol72324:409WLDWW
6CerroCerro73046:10-49LDDWL
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting71336:9-36WDWLD
8Boston RiverBoston River71245:10-55LWLWW
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol712:316
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo77:511
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo74:310
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo75:59
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol74:49
6CerroCerro76:109
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting76:96
8Boston RiverBoston River75:105

Primera: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1594223:14+931WDWWW
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1592424:16+829LDWWL
3Albion FCAlbion FC1584326:16+1028WWWDD
4PenarolPenarol1583423:16+727LDLWL
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1573523:22+124WLDWW
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1565422:16+623WDLDL
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1571726:21+522LWLLW
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1556413:11+221WDWLD
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1555520:18+220DLWLD
10WanderersWanderers1562716:21-520WLLLW
11DanubioDanubio1546517:21-418WDDDL
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1552816:19-317LLDDW
13Boston RiverBoston River1552814:20-617LWLWW
14JuventudJuventud1543817:22-515DDWLL
15ProgresoProgreso1524912:23-1110LWLLD
16CerroCerro152498:24-1610LDDWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1523:1431
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1524:1629
3Albion FCAlbion FC1526:1628
4PenarolPenarol1523:1627
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1523:2224
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1522:1623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1526:2122
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1513:1121
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1520:1820
10WanderersWanderers1516:2120
11DanubioDanubio1517:2118
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1516:1917
13Boston RiverBoston River1514:2017
14JuventudJuventud1517:2215
15ProgresoProgreso1512:2310
16CerroCerro158:2410

Primera: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1393122:8+1430DLWLD
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1391326:14+1228WDLDL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1382319:13+626LWLLW
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1364318:10+822LDWWL
5PenarolPenarol1365217:9+822LDLWL
6Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1354418:14+419WDWWW
7ProgresoProgreso1361613:15-219LWLLD
8JuventudJuventud1346312:10+218DDWLL
9CerroCerro1353515:19-418LDDWL
10WanderersWanderers1344514:19-516WLLLW
11Boston RiverBoston River1343615:17-215LWLWW
12Albion FCAlbion FC1341815:20-513WWWDD
13Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1333716:23-712WDWLD
14DanubioDanubio132477:15-810WDDDL
15Cerro LargoCerro Largo1316610:17-79LLDDW
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol132298:22-148WLDWW
#TeamMPGPts
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1322:830
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1326:1428
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1319:1326
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1318:1022
5PenarolPenarol1317:922
6Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1318:1419
7ProgresoProgreso1313:1519
8JuventudJuventud1312:1018
9CerroCerro1315:1918
10WanderersWanderers1314:1916
11Boston RiverBoston River1315:1715
12Albion FCAlbion FC1315:2013
13Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1316:2312
14DanubioDanubio137:1510
15Cerro LargoCerro Largo1310:179
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol138:228
PromotionRelegation

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About the Penarol vs Cerro Largo forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Penarol and Cerro Largo in the Primera División - Apertura table

In the Primera División - Apertura table, Penarol are 1st and Cerro Largo 12th, 28 points apart. League goal record so far: Penarol 52-28, Cerro Largo 33-41. The full standings are on the Primera División - Apertura Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.