Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock Prediction

JFE Harenokuni Stadium, Okayama·Koichiro Fukushima 21/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalHIGHModel51%SurpriseHighGap-7.0%
Fagiano Okayama Rest
3 days
Mito Hollyhock Rest
4 days

Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock: the result in context

Fagiano Okayama beat Mito Hollyhock 2-0 in the J1 League on 21 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 8 previous meetings produced 1.8 goals a game. Referee Koichiro Fukushima averages 1.36 cards a game, 1.22 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
52%1.76
X
26%3.57
2
22%4.60
Double Chance
1X
78%1.18
X2
47%2.04
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.91
No
50%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.49 + 0.99 = 2.48
Over 1.5
72%1.33
Over 2.5
47%2.06
Over 3.5
27%3.75
Under 1.5
28%3.05
Under 2.5
53%1.75
Under 3.5
73%1.25
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

52'Ataru EsakaAssist: Lucas Marcos Meireles
57'Ryo Nemoto INKeisuke Tada out
57'Jin Okumura INHayata Yamamoto out
59'Haruka MotoyamaFoul
65'Ataru Esaka
66'Masaya Matsumoto INKosuke Shirai out
66'Ataru Esaka INKamiya Yuta out
68'Kaito Taniguchi INMotoki Nishihara out
68'Chihiro Kato INPatryck Ferreira out
78'Na Sang-Ho INYota Fujii out
78'Towa Yamane INSoichiro Mori out
82'Yu Funabashi INRei Ieizumi out
90'Lucas Marcos Meireles INKota Kawano out

Lineups

Fagiano Okayama
3-4-2-1Coach: T. Kiyama
Mito Hollyhock
4-4-2Coach: D. Kimori
Avg rating7.00
Avg rating6.43
L. Moser7.11L. Moser
H. Motoyama6.526H. Motoyama
Y. Tatsuta7.648Y. Tatsuta
Y. Suzuki7.243Y. Suzuki
M. Matsumoto6.428M. Matsumoto
E. Miyamoto6.741E. Miyamoto
Oberdan6.680Oberdan
T. Yamane6.488T. Yamane
Na Sang-Ho6.510N. Sang-Ho
A. Esaka9.18A. Esaka
Lucão7.099Lucão
J. Słowik6.627J. Słowik
T. Mase6.925T. Mase
Y. Kimoto6.415Y. Kimoto
K. Itakura6.317K. Itakura
Y. Tamura6.616Y. Tamura
J. Okumura6.430J. Okumura
Leonardo Hugo6.838L. Hugo
Y. Funabashi6.720Y. Funabashi
K. Taniguchi6.122K. Taniguchi
R. Nemoto6.59R. Nemoto
C. Kato6.08C. Kato

Fagiano Okayama Substitutes

55Y. Fujii78'for Na Sang-Ho6.9
52T. Hamada
33Y. Kamiya66'for Ataru Esaka7.1
20K. Kawano90'for Lucas Marcos Meireles
9Léo Gaúcho
44S. Mori78'for Towa Yamane7.0
19R. Sato
51K. Shirai66'for Masaya Matsumoto6.9
7R. Takeuchi

Mito Hollyhock Substitutes

2M. Fofana
50R. Ieizumi82'for Yu Funabashi6.5
44M. Nishihara68'for Kaito Taniguchi6.1
34K. Nishikawa
3K. Osaki
33Patryck Ferreira68'for Chihiro Kato6.3
29K. Tada57'for Ryo Nemoto6.3
39H. Yamamoto57'for Jin Okumura6.4
24K. Yamazaki

Match Stats

Fagiano OkayamaMito Hollyhock
42%Ball Possession58%
4Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards0
13Total Shots7
5Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal2
8Shots Inside Box3
5Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots2
10Fouls12
5Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves4
362Total Passes521
268Passes Accurate410
12Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock
1563Elo Rating 1460
1.43Attack 1.35
1.40Defense 1.90
41%Hit Rate 34%
12.6Shots per Game 4.9
4.2Shots on Target 2.1
5.8Corners per Game 2.6
2.3Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+103 Elo
📈BTTS Trend63% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama3Wins · 38%
Draws450%
Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1Wins · 12%
1.8Avg Goals
63%Both teams scored5 of 8
25%3+ goals2 of 8

Previous meetings

J2 League22/09/2024
Mito HollyhockFagiano Okayama
00
J2 League20/03/2024
Fagiano OkayamaMito Hollyhock
10
J2 League01/07/2023
Fagiano OkayamaMito Hollyhock
10
J2 League05/03/2023
Mito HollyhockFagiano Okayama
11
J2 League25/06/2022
Mito HollyhockFagiano Okayama
11
J2 League04/05/2022
Fagiano OkayamaMito Hollyhock
21
J2 League24/10/2021
Mito HollyhockFagiano Okayama
11
J2 League17/04/2021
Fagiano OkayamaMito Hollyhock
12

Recent Form

Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
5W0D5L
18/10/2026
Fagiano OkayamaVissel Kobe
03
L
14/10/2026
Nagoya GrampusFagiano Okayama
4333
L
10/10/2026
Avispa FukuokaFagiano Okayama
21
L
07/10/2026
Fagiano OkayamaJEF United Chiba
10
W
29/09/2026
Consadole SapporoFagiano Okayama
12
W
19/09/2026
Fagiano OkayamaKyoto Sanga
12
L
13/09/2026
UrawaFagiano Okayama
12
W
06/09/2026
Fagiano OkayamaSanfrecce Hiroshima
32
W
02/09/2026
JEF United ChibaFagiano Okayama
12
W
29/08/2026
Nagoya GrampusFagiano Okayama
21
L
Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock
4W2D4L
17/10/2026
Mito HollyhockUrawa
01
L
14/10/2026
Mito HollyhockFC Tokyo
10
W
11/10/2026
Mito HollyhockShimizu S-pulse
12
L
29/09/2026
Fukushima UnitedMito Hollyhock
07
W
19/09/2026
Yokohama F. MarinosMito Hollyhock
20
L
12/09/2026
Mito HollyhockKawasaki Frontale
01
L
09/09/2026
Parceiro NaganoMito Hollyhock
1040
W
05/09/2026
Avispa FukuokaMito Hollyhock
11
D
02/09/2026
Mito HollyhockKashima
42
W
29/08/2026
Mito HollyhockMachida Zelvia
11
D

Referee Profile

Koichiro Fukushima182 matches

1.36Cards per match
1.29Yellow cards per match
0.07Red cards per match
22.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Koichiro Fukushima1.36
Other referees2.58

1.36 cards a match, 1.22 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.58).

Cards come from 123 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1283130:10+2027DWWWL
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1283127:8+1927WDWWW
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1282229:10+1926WLWWW
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1281325:19+625WDLWW
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1272318:11+723DLWLW
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1264225:18+722WWWLD
7UrawaUrawa1270521:23-221WWWLW
8KashimaKashima1262425:21+420LDWWD
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1246216:12+418DDDDW
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1251615:17-216LWLLL
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1242614:18-414DDWWL
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1235412:19-714DDLDD
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1242610:20-1014LLDWW
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1233615:19-412LWLDD
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1225514:21-711DWDLL
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1224615:23-810DDLLW
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1223712:22-109LLLLL
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy121569:21-128WDLLL
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1221913:21-87LLLWL
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1214712:24-127DLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1230:1027
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1227:827
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1229:1026
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1225:1925
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1218:1123
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1225:1822
7UrawaUrawa1221:2321
8KashimaKashima1225:2120
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1216:1218
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1215:1716
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1214:1814
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1212:1914
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1210:2014
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1215:1912
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1214:2111
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1215:2310
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1212:229
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy129:218
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1213:217
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1212:247
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock forecast

The forecasts for this J1 League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Fagiano Okayama and Mito Hollyhock in the J1 League table

In the J1 League table, Fagiano Okayama are 10th and Mito Hollyhock 17th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Fagiano Okayama 15-17, Mito Hollyhock 12-22. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.