Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction

Toyota Stadium, Toyota·Ryo Tanimoto 21/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-3.1%
Nagoya Grampus Rest
4 days
Cerezo Osaka Rest
4 days

Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka: result, form and history

Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka drew 1-1 in the J1 League on 21 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 10 previous meetings averaged 3.3 goals, and both sides scored in 8 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
40%2.30
X
27%3.56
2
33%2.88
Double Chance
1X
67%1.40
X2
60%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.53
No
39%2.35
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.54 + 1.38 = 2.92
Over 1.5
79%1.20
Over 2.5
57%1.67
Over 3.5
36%2.57
Under 1.5
21%4.33
Under 2.5
43%2.17
Under 3.5
64%1.45
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

3'Katsuhiro NakayamaAssist: Takuya Uchida
26'Dion CoolsFoul
46'Yota SatoFoul
49'Shinji KagawaFoul
59'Tsukasa Morishima INHidemasa Koda out
60'Katsuhiro Nakayama INTomoya Koyamatsu out
60'Kensuke Nagai INYuya Yamagishi out
62'Pablo SabbagAssist: Lucas Fernandes
66'Lucas FernandesFoul
69'Yota Komi INSatoki Uejo out
70'Takuya Uchida INMasahito Ono out
81'Pablo Sabbag INSolomon Sakuragawa out
90'Lucas Fernandes INReiya Sakata out
90+4'Hayato OkudaFoul

Lineups

Nagoya Grampus
3-4-2-1Coach: Michael Petrovic
Cerezo Osaka
3-4-2-1Coach: Pablo Machín
Avg rating6.65
Avg rating6.47
D. Schmidt7.01D. Schmidt
T. Hara6.670T. Hara
Y. Sato6.43Y. Sato
T. Takamine6.931T. Takamine
R. Izumi6.37R. Izumi
S. Inagaki6.415S. Inagaki
T. Morishima6.714T. Morishima
K. Nakayama7.627K. Nakayama
T. Uchida7.417T. Uchida
Y. Kimura6.422Y. Kimura
K. Nagai6.618K. Nagai
Kosuke Nakamura6.123K. Nakamura
Dion-Johan Cools6.127D. Cools
T. Takahashi6.697T. Takahashi
R. Inoue6.74R. Inoue
H. Okuda6.016H. Okuda
S. Tanaka6.510S. Tanaka
S. Kagawa6.68S. Kagawa
Javi Hernández6.315J. Hernández
Lucas Fernandes6.977L. Fernandes
Y. Komi6.341Y. Komi
P. Sabbag7.519P. Sabbag

Nagoya Grampus Substitutes

33T. Kikuchi
19H. Koda59'for Tsukasa Morishima6.1
58T. Koyamatsu60'for Katsuhiro Nakayama6.2
2Y. Nogami
41M. Ono70'for Takuya Uchida6.8
35A. Pisano
30S. Sugiura
55S. Tokumoto
11Y. Yamagishi60'for Kensuke Nagai6.6

Cerezo Osaka Substitutes

9S. Sakuragawa81'for Pablo Sabbag6.4
7S. Uejo69'for Yota Komi6.2
14Y. Yokoyama
17R. Sakata90'for Lucas Fernandes
28K. Okazawa
6K. Noborizato
2T. Nakamura
45K. Nagasoe
31K. Abe

Match Stats

Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
58%Ball Possession42%
2Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards4
14Total Shots9
3Shots on Goal4
7Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box6
5Shots Outside Box3
4Blocked Shots2
13Fouls10
4Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves2
598Total Passes425
517Passes Accurate329
10Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus
Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
1561Elo Rating 1591
2.30Attack 1.59
1.61Defense 1.42
54%Hit Rate 34%
12.5Shots per Game 10.5
3.8Shots on Target 3.2
3.0Corners per Game 2.7
0.9Cards per Game 3.7

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.92 goals
📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.9 in second half)
Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus5Wins · 50%
Draws110%
Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka4Wins · 40%
3.3Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored8 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

J1 League17/05/2026
Cerezo OsakaNagoya Grampus
61
J1 League04/04/2026
Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
30
J1 League04/10/2025
Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
21
J1 League08/03/2025
Cerezo OsakaNagoya Grampus
11
J1 League30/06/2024
Cerezo OsakaNagoya Grampus
21
J1 League21/04/2024
Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
21
J1 League26/08/2023
Cerezo OsakaNagoya Grampus
31
J1 League03/06/2023
Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
31
J1 League05/11/2022
Cerezo OsakaNagoya Grampus
01
Emperor Cup13/07/2022
Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
12

Referee Profile

Ryo Tanimoto139 matches

2.48Cards per match
2.39Yellow cards per match
0.09Red cards per match
22.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ryo Tanimoto2.48
Other referees2.66

2.48 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.66).

Cards come from 97 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1283130:10+2027DWWWL
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1283127:8+1927WDWWW
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1282229:10+1926WLWWW
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1281325:19+625WDLWW
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1272318:11+723DLWLW
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1264225:18+722WWWLD
7UrawaUrawa1270521:23-221WWWLW
8KashimaKashima1262425:21+420LDWWD
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1246216:12+418DDDDW
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1251615:17-216LWLLL
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1242614:18-414DDWWL
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1235412:19-714DDLDD
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1242610:20-1014LLDWW
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1233615:19-412LWLDD
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1225514:21-711DWDLL
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1224615:23-810DDLLW
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1223712:22-109LLLLL
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy121569:21-128WDLLL
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1221913:21-87LLLWL
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1214712:24-127DLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1230:1027
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1227:827
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1229:1026
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1225:1925
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1218:1123
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1225:1822
7UrawaUrawa1221:2321
8KashimaKashima1225:2120
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1216:1218
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1215:1716
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1214:1814
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1212:1914
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1210:2014
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1215:1912
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1214:2111
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1215:2310
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1212:229
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy129:218
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1213:217
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1212:247
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League table

In the J1 League table, Nagoya Grampus (11th) and Cerezo Osaka (12th) are level on 14 points. League goal record so far: Nagoya Grampus 14-18, Cerezo Osaka 12-19. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Nagoya Grampus have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.