FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow Prediction

FC Krasnodar
4-2
Finished
HT 2-1
CSKA Moscow
Ozon Arena, Krasnodar·Sergey Karasev 07/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-0.9%
FC Krasnodar Rest
6 days
CSKA Moscow Rest
6 days

FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow: the result in context

FC Krasnodar beat CSKA Moscow 4-2 in the Premier League on 7 Nov 2026. That went against recent form: CSKA Moscow had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for FC Krasnodar.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Referee Sergey Karasev averages 5.32 cards a game, 0.83 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%2.19
X
28%3.65
2
28%3.24
Double Chance
1X
72%1.36
X2
56%1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.56
No
45%2.29
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.34 + 1.17 = 2.51
Over 1.5
77%1.20
Over 2.5
55%1.69
Over 3.5
34%2.61
Under 1.5
23%4.30
Under 2.5
45%2.22
Under 3.5
66%1.47
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.3 = 9.4
Over 8.5
58%1.64
Over 9.5
46%2.06
Over 10.5
34%2.70
Under 8.5
42%2.12
Under 9.5
54%1.68
Under 10.5
66%1.38
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.7 = 5.4
Over 3.5
78%-
Over 4.5
62%-
Under 3.5
22%-
Under 4.5
38%-

Match Events

16'Jhon CordobaAssist: Christian
35'Matvey Kislyak
40'Joao Batxi
40'Goal confirmedJhon Cordoba
58'Dmitriy Vorobyov INDaniil Utkin out
60'Ivan Oleynikov INKirill Glebov out
62'Sergey Petrov INValentin Paltsev out
67'Kevin PinaFoul
73'Douglas Augusto INMagomed Ozdoev out
74'Daniil Utkin
78'Matvey Lukin INHenrique Carmo out
78'Matheus Alves INTamerlan Musaev out
82'Jhon CordobaAssist: Christian
85'Luciano Gondou INMaksim Voronov out
85'Matvey Kislyak INDanila Kozlov out
85'Álex Maizon Rodríguez GonzálezFoul
90+1'Kirill GlebovAssist: Tamerlan Musaev

Lineups

FC Krasnodar
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Musaev
CSKA Moscow
5-3-2Coach: Dmitriy Igdisamov
Avg rating6.77
Avg rating6.41
S. Agkatsev6.41S. Agkatsev
S. Petrov6.298S. Petrov
M. Rodríguez6.22M. Rodríguez
Jubal6.35Jubal
I. Vakhania6.140I. Vakhania
Kevin Pina6.56K. Pina
Douglas Augusto6.88D. Augusto
Christian8.418Christian
D. Vorobjev6.610D. Vorobjev
Batxi8.011Batxi
J. Córdoba8.69J. Córdoba
M. Borisko6.239M. Borisko
M. Azzi6.821M. Azzi
M. Lukin5.990M. Lukin
João Victor6.04J. Victor
M. Zea6.279M. Zea
D. Krugovoy6.63D. Krugovoy
I. Oblyakov6.610I. Oblyakov
M. Kislyak7.531M. Kislyak
I. Oleynikov6.119I. Oleynikov
Matheus Alves6.57M. Alves
L. Gondou6.332L. Gondou

FC Krasnodar Substitutes

23J. Boselli
27E. Burkin
16A. Koryakin
21M. Ozdoev73'for Douglas Augusto5.8
17V. Paltsev62'for Sergey Petrov6.3
3Vítor Tormena
47D. Utkin58'for Dmitriy Vorobyov74'6.7

CSKA Moscow Substitutes

99Nikolay Barovskiy
84A. Vakulich
49V. Torop
20Matija Popovic
11T. Musaev78'for Matheus Alves6.6
18D. Kozlov85'for Matvey Kislyak5.8
37Henrique78'for Matvey Lukin5.8
17K. Glebov60'for Ivan Oleynikov90+1'7.3
62I. Firov
52A. Bandikyan
23Dzhamalutdin Abdulkadyrov
97Maksim Voronov85'replaced by Luciano Gondou

Match Stats

FC KrasnodarCSKA Moscow
44%Ball Possession56%
2Corner Kicks7
2Yellow Cards0
19Total Shots26
9Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal12
14Shots Inside Box15
5Shots Outside Box11
5Blocked Shots9
23Fouls7
2Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves5
314Total Passes397
237Passes Accurate310
7Free Kicks22

Team Comparison

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar
CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow
1658Elo Rating 1668
1.42Attack 1.81
1.26Defense 2.27
23%Hit Rate 56%
12.7Shots per Game 12.2
6.2Shots on Target 4.9
3.8Corners per Game 4.8
1.8Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.4 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar5Wins · 50%
Draws110%
CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow4Wins · 40%
2.4Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Cup17/03/2026
FC KrasnodarCSKA Moscow
40
Cup04/03/2026
CSKA MoscowFC Krasnodar
31
Premier League07/12/2025
FC KrasnodarCSKA Moscow
32
Premier League31/08/2025
CSKA MoscowFC Krasnodar
11
Super Cup12/07/2025
FC KrasnodarCSKA Moscow
01
Premier League10/05/2025
CSKA MoscowFC Krasnodar
10
Cup18/09/2024
CSKA MoscowFC Krasnodar
20
Premier League10/08/2024
FC KrasnodarCSKA Moscow
21
Cup31/07/2024
FC KrasnodarCSKA Moscow
10
Premier League10/12/2023
KrasnodarCSKA Moscow
10

Recent Form

FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar
2W5D3L

Referee Profile

Sergey Karasev22 matches

5.32Cards per match
4.86Yellow cards per match
0.45Red cards per match
22.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Sergey Karasev5.32
Other referees4.49

5.32 cards a match, 0.83 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.49).

Cards come from 22 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ZenitZenit14101332:15+1731DWWWW
2DynamoDynamo14101323:13+1031WWLWW
3Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1492327:11+1629WWLWD
4FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1475225:18+726WLDDL
5CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1475223:16+726LDWLW
6FC RostovFC Rostov1454518:19-119DWWDW
7Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1446419:20-118WLWLD
8RubinRubin1446414:18-418WWLLL
9BaltikaBaltika1445517:15+217LWDDD
10FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1438314:14017LDWDW
11Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1451817:26-916WLLDL
12AkhmatAkhmat1435616:19-314WLLLD
13Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1433815:29-1412LWWDL
14AkronAkron1426617:25-812LLWDL
15LokomotivLokomotiv1425716:21-511LLLDW
16FakelFakel1413109:23-146LLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1ZenitZenit1432:1531
2DynamoDynamo1423:1331
3Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1427:1129
4FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1425:1826
5CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1423:1626
6FC RostovFC Rostov1418:1919
7Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1419:2018
8RubinRubin1414:1818
9BaltikaBaltika1417:1517
10FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1414:1417
11Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1417:2616
12AkhmatAkhmat1416:1914
13Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1415:2912
14AkronAkron1417:2512
15LokomotivLokomotiv1416:2111
16FakelFakel149:236
Relegation

About the FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow forecast

The forecasts for this Premier League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow in the Premier League table

In the Premier League table, FC Krasnodar (4th) and CSKA Moscow (5th) are level on 26 points. League goal record so far: FC Krasnodar 25-18, CSKA Moscow 23-16. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

CSKA Moscow have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.