Zenit vs CSKA Moscow Prediction

Zenit
1-2
Finished
HT 0-1
CSKA Moscow
Gazprom Arena, Saint Petersburg·Andrey Prokopov, Russia 05/09/2026
ZenitZenit
1-2
Finished
CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.1 / 10
Value Analysis
57%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.79
SignalNEUTRALModel60%SurpriseMediumGap+4.0%
Zenit Rest
2 days
CSKA Moscow Rest
3 days

Zenit vs CSKA Moscow: the result in context

CSKA Moscow beat Zenit 2-1 in the Premier League on 5 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: Zenit had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for CSKA Moscow.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.6 goals a game. Referee Andrey Prokopov averages 5.20 cards a game, 0.68 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
62%1.60
X
21%4.09
2
17%5.55
Double Chance
1X
83%1.15
X2
39%2.32
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.80
No
48%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.87 + 0.89 = 2.76
Over 1.5
79%1.24
Over 2.5
57%1.79
Over 3.5
32%2.87
Under 1.5
21%3.71
Under 2.5
43%2.03
Under 3.5
68%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 3.6 = 9.6
Over 8.5
58%1.53
Over 9.5
51%1.89
Over 10.5
38%2.42
Under 8.5
42%2.33
Under 9.5
49%1.83
Under 10.5
62%1.49
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.4 = 4.1
Over 3.5
59%-
Over 4.5
39%1.80
Under 3.5
41%-
Under 4.5
61%1.90

Match Events

7'João VictorArgument
19'Kirill GlebovFoul
30'Dzhamalutdin AbdulkadyrovFoul
43'Kevin AndradeFoul
45'I. Oblyakov(Penalty)
45+5'Penalty confirmedDzhamalutdin Abdulkadyrov
45+6'Aleksandr SobolevFoul
46'Maksim GlushenkovFoul
46'Gustavo Mantuan INS. Volkov out
64'R. Vega INDouglas Santos out
64'W. Barrios INPedrinho out
68'L. Gondou INT. Musaev out
73'Jhon Jhon INFelipe Augusto out
81'M. Azzi INI. Firov out
84'A. SobolevAssist: Luiz Henrique
89'Nuraly AlipFoul
89'Luiz Henrique INA. Erokhin out
90'I. Oblyakov

Lineups

Zenit
4-2-3-1Coach: Sergey Semak
CSKA Moscow
3-4-2-1Coach: Dmitriy Igdisamov
Avg rating6.87
Avg rating7.02
D. Adamov6.716D. Adamov
Gustavo Mantuan6.731G. Mantuan
K. Andrade7.725K. Andrade
N. Alip6.928N. Alip
R. Vega6.766R. Vega
W. BarriosC6.75W. Barrios
A. Karpukas7.993A. Karpukas
Luiz Henrique7.211L. Henrique
M. Glushenkov7.710M. Glushenkov
Jhon Jhon6.714J. Jhon
A. Sobolev7.57A. Sobolev
V. Torop7.649V. Torop
Joao Victor6.94J. Victor
K. Danilov6.679K. Danilov
D. Abdulkadyrov7.223D. Abdulkadyrov
M. Azzi7.021M. Azzi
I. OblyakovC9.210I. Oblyakov
M. Kislyak7.331M. Kislyak
Matheus Reis6.92M. Reis
D. Krugovoy6.53D. Krugovoy
K. Glebov6.917K. Glebov
L. Gondou6.232L. Gondou

Zenit Substitutes

71D. Odoevskiy
57B. Moskvichev
3Douglas Santos64'for R. Vega6.2
33Nino
15V. Karavaev
82S. Volkov46'for Gustavo Mantuan5.6
21A. Erokhin89'for Luiz Henrique6.5
38A. Musaev
61D. Kondakov
20Pedrinho64'for W. Barrios6.9
9Felipe Augusto73'for Jhon Jhon6.3
51V. Shilov

CSKA Moscow Substitutes

85E. Besaev
39M. Borisko
90M. Lukin
20M. Popovic
87A. Ponomarchuk
84A. Vakulich
7Matheus Alves
18D. Kozlov
52A. Bandikyan
11T. Musaev68'for L. Gondou6.7
37Henrique Carmo
62I. Firov81'for M. Azzi6.2

Match Stats

ZenitCSKA Moscow
69%Ball Possession31%
10Corner Kicks2
4Yellow Cards3
20Total Shots12
8Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal4
17Shots Inside Box10
3Shots Outside Box2
5Blocked Shots3
14Fouls16
1Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves6
641Total Passes291
572Passes Accurate236
89%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

ZenitZenit
CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow
1768Elo Rating 1634
2.63Attack 2.41
1.37Defense 1.88
100%Hit Rate 59%
14.3Shots per Game 13.8
6.0Shots on Target 5.4
7.0Corners per Game 4.9
2.5Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+134 Elo
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

ZenitZenit
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.9 in first half)
CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.7 vs 0.8 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

ZenitZenit3Wins · 30%
Draws550%
CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow2Wins · 20%
1.6Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
10%3+ goals1 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier League02/05/2026
CSKA MoscowZenit
13
Premier League03/08/2025
ZenitCSKA Moscow
11
Cup14/05/2025
CSKA MoscowZenit
4230
Cup30/04/2025
ZenitCSKA Moscow
20
Premier League01/03/2025
ZenitCSKA Moscow
00
Premier League14/09/2024
CSKA MoscowZenit
01
Cup15/05/2024
ZenitCSKA Moscow
5040
Premier League11/05/2024
Zenit Saint PetersburgCSKA Moscow
01
Cup02/05/2024
CSKA MoscowZenit
11
Premier League03/09/2023
CSKA MoscowZenit Saint Petersburg
11

Recent Form

ZenitZenit
8W0D2L
CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow
4W3D3L

Referee Profile

Andrey Prokopov32 matches

5.20Cards per match
5.07Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
26.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Andrey Prokopov5.20
Other referees4.52

5.20 cards a match, 0.68 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.52).

Cards come from 15 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1DynamoDynamo1281319:12+725LWWWW
2ZenitZenit1180325:13+1224WWWWL
3FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1265120:14+623DDLDD
4Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1172221:8+1323WDWWL
5CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1164119:12+722LWWDW
6FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1237214:12+216WDWDL
7FC RostovFC Rostov1243513:17-415WDWLL
8Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1236317:17015WLDDW
9BaltikaBaltika1235415:13+214DDDLD
10Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1141616:21-513DLLLW
11RubinRubin1226412:18-612LLLDD
12AkronAkron1226415:21-612WDLWD
13LokomotivLokomotiv1225516:16011LDWDL
14AkhmatAkhmat1225515:17-211LLDLW
15Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1223713:27-149WDLDL
16FakelFakel121388:20-126LWLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1DynamoDynamo1219:1225
2ZenitZenit1125:1324
3FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar1220:1423
4Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow1121:823
5CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow1119:1222
6FC OrenburgFC Orenburg1214:1216
7FC RostovFC Rostov1213:1715
8Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov1217:1715
9BaltikaBaltika1215:1314
10Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala1116:2113
11RubinRubin1212:1812
12AkronAkron1215:2112
13LokomotivLokomotiv1216:1611
14AkhmatAkhmat1215:1711
15Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva1213:279
16FakelFakel128:206
Relegation

About the Zenit vs CSKA Moscow forecast

As a derby, this Premier League meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Zenit and CSKA Moscow in the Premier League table

In the Premier League table, Zenit are 2nd and CSKA Moscow 5th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Zenit 25-13, CSKA Moscow 19-12. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

CSKA Moscow have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.