Leon vs Atlas Prediction
Mexico · Apertura - 1
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
60%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.87
SignalSOLIDModel42%SurpriseMediumGap+7.5%
Leon Rest
14 days
Atlas Rest
7 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
143%2.03
X23%3.40
234%3.49
Double Chance
1X66%1.28
X256%1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes60%1.68
No40%2.08
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.37 + 1.19 = 2.56
Over 1.578%1.25
Over 2.559%1.87
Over 3.534%3.04
Under 1.522%3.67
Under 2.541%1.92
Under 3.566%1.34
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.4 + 4 = 10.4
Over 8.561%1.42
Over 9.550%1.81
Over 10.536%2.12
Under 8.539%2.50
Under 9.550%1.92
Under 10.564%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.8 = 5.2
Over 3.572%1.30
Over 4.555%1.62
Under 3.528%2.87
Under 4.545%2.20
Match Events
2'Duk
27'D. Cambindo
42'D. CambindoSerious foul
46'J. Rodriguez INM. Valenzuela out
50'A. GonzalezAssist: Gustavo Ferrareis
55'S. Santos INJ. Cortizo out
56'I. Diaz INA. Alvarado out
56'D. Arcila INE. Guerra out
58'A. Gonzalez INL. Esteves out
64'E. Zaldivar INV. H. Rios De Alba out
73'A. Rocha(Penalty)
73'R. EcheverriaUnsportsmanlike conduct
74'R. Echeverria INL. Valadez out
77'J. CortizoAssist: A. Alvarado
82'I. Moreno INF. Beltran Cruz out
84'M. CapassoFoul
85'A. RochaFoul
89'Duk INJ. Lozano out
90+9'A. AlvaradoFoul
Lineups
LeonAtlas
4-2-3-1Coach: Diego CoccaAvg ratingAvg rating
23O. García
7I. Moreno
3J. Guevara
5S. Vegas
26S. Reyes
C29J. Rodríguez
22S. Santos
20R. Echeverría
13D. Arcila
11I. Díaz
27D. Cambindo
22A. Sánchez
2G. Ferrareis
28M. Capasso
21R. Schlegel
5J. Rodríguez
C26A. Rocha
6E. Zaldívar
11Duk
58A. González
23S. Hernandez
8R. MmaeeLeon Substitutes
16Jordi Cortizo55'for S. Santos77'
19José Alvarado56'for I. Diaz90+9'
18Edgar Guerra56'for D. Arcila
35Luis Valadez74'for R. Echeverria
6Fernando Beltrán
1Jordan García
4Bryan Colula
25Paul Bellón
33Abraham Villegas Maciel
185Christopher Mora
Atlas Substitutes
16Milton Valenzuela46'for J. Rodriguez
10Luís Esteves58'for A. Gonzalez
27Victor Rios64'for E. Zaldivar
17Jose Lozano89'for Duk
4Adrián Mora
13Gaddi Aguirre
192Jesús Serrato
15Paulo Ramírez
203Jose Martin
181Luis Hernández
Match Stats
LeonAtlas 46%Ball Possession54%
6Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
16Total Shots9
8Shots on Goal7
6Shots off Goal1
7Shots Inside Box5
9Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots1
15Fouls10
0Offsides4
4Goalkeeper Saves6
351Total Passes427
283Passes Accurate352
81%Pass Accuracy82%
Team Comparison
LeonAtlas1655Elo Rating 1632
1.53Attack 2.05
1.26Defense 1.20
19%Hit Rate 66%
14.0Shots per Game 13.7
5.2Shots on Target 3.9
5.1Corners per Game 6.4
3.2Cards per Game 2.2
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Leon- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Atlas- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Leon5Wins · 50%Draws330%
Atlas2Wins · 20%
2Wins · 20%2.0Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10
Previous meetings
05/04/2026LeonAtlas20
23/10/2025AtlasLeon20
19/01/2025AtlasLeon12
24/10/2024LeonAtlas00
18/02/2024AtlasLeon01
25/10/2023LeonAtlas11
12/03/2023AtlasLeon01
29/08/2022LeonAtlas42
20/01/2022LeonAtlas11
13/12/2021AtlasLeon4130
Recent Form
Leon6W0D4L
03/07/2026Leon
Tapatío
LeonTapatío42
W27/06/2026Leon
Mineros de Zacatecas
LeonMineros de Zacatecas74
W26/04/2026
TolucaLeon
TolucaLeon41
L22/04/2026Leon
Club America
LeonClub America23
L19/04/2026Leon
FC Juarez
LeonFC Juarez31
W11/04/2026
PueblaLeon
PueblaLeon01
W05/04/2026LeonAtlas
LeonAtlas20
W22/03/2026
Atletico San LuisLeon
Atletico San LuisLeon12
W19/03/2026
Guadalajara ChivasLeon
Guadalajara ChivasLeon50
L15/03/2026Leon
Club Tijuana
LeonClub Tijuana03
LAtlas2W3D5L
10/07/2026AtlasPuebla
AtlasPuebla34
L04/07/2026Atlas
Necaxa
AtlasNecaxa00
D01/07/2026AtlasAtletico San Luis
AtlasAtletico San Luis01
L10/05/2026
Cruz AzulAtlas
Cruz AzulAtlas10
L03/05/2026AtlasCruz Azul
AtlasCruz Azul23
L26/04/2026Club AmericaAtlas
Club AmericaAtlas01
W23/04/2026Atlas
Tigres UANL
AtlasTigres UANL00
D20/04/2026
Santos LagunaAtlas
Santos LagunaAtlas01
W12/04/2026Atlas
Monterrey
AtlasMonterrey00
D05/04/2026LeonAtlas
LeonAtlas20
LReferee Profile
5.13Cards per match
4.83Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
23.0Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.13 cards a match, 0.48 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.65).
Cards come from 63 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37:26 | +11 | 32 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38:23 | +15 | 30 | DDDLW |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25:14 | +11 | 29 | WWWDD |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35:21 | +14 | 27 | WDDDD |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27:30 | -3 | 27 | LWWLW |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23:20 | +3 | 25 | WWLWW |
| 7 |  CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29:20 | +9 | 22 | WWWLL |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25:22 | +3 | 22 | LDDWD |
| 9 | Leon | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22:20 | +2 | 22 | LDWLD |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | +1 | 21 | LDLWW |
| 11 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:26 | -2 | 21 | DWDLW |
| 12 |  Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18:23 | -5 | 20 | LLLLL |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:23 | -4 | 19 | WLLLD |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:24 | -5 | 19 | LLWWD |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 15 | LLDLD |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16:26 | -10 | 14 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:28 | -11 | 13 | WLDLL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13:34 | -21 | 11 | WWDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 37:26 | 32 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 38:23 | 30 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 25:14 | 29 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 35:21 | 27 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 27:30 | 27 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 7 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 29:20 | 22 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 25:22 | 22 |
| 9 | Leon | 15 | 22:20 | 22 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 26:25 | 21 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 24:26 | 21 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 18:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 19:23 | 19 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 19:24 | 19 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 16:26 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 13:34 | 11 |
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About the Leon vs Atlas forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Leon and Atlas in the Liga MX table
In the Liga MX table, Atlas are 5th and Leon 9th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Leon 22-20, Atlas 27-30. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.