Flamengo vs Botafogo Prediction

Serie ABrazil Brazil · Regular Season - 25
Derby
Flamengo
3-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Botafogo
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro· Alex Gomes Stefano, Brazil 30/08/2026
FlamengoFlamengo
3-0
Finished
BotafogoBotafogo

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
Value Analysis
56%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.81
SignalGOODModel62%RiskMediumGap+5.1%
Flamengo Rest
7 days
Botafogo Rest
5 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
65%1.40
X
21%4.60
2
14%7.00
Double Chance
1X
86%1.09
X2
35%2.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.81
No
44%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.74 + 0.94 = 2.68
Over 1.5
76%1.20
Over 2.5
56%1.63
Over 3.5
33%2.60
Under 1.5
24%4.40
Under 2.5
44%2.25
Under 3.5
67%1.45
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.5 + 4.1 = 10.7
Over 8.5
71%1.34
Over 9.5
65%1.57
Over 10.5
47%2.00
Under 8.5
29%3.00
Under 9.5
35%2.27
Under 10.5
53%1.75
Cards
Projected Cards: 1 + 2.6 = 3.5
Over 3.5
47%-
Over 4.5
24%-
Under 3.5
53%-
Under 4.5
76%-

Match Events

9'Goal Disallowed - handballArthur Cabral
13'Samuel LinoAssist: Jorginho
21'Alex Telles INL. Monzon out
46'A. Montoro INDanilo Pereira out
57'Luiz Araujo INLucas Paqueta out
66'Edenilson INC. Medina out
69'Goal Disallowed - offsideLucas Paqueta
75'G. de Arrascaeta INJ. Carrascal out
77'Arthur Cabral INL. M. Villalba Jaume out
77'Vitinho INJunior Santos out
83'MarcalUnsportsmanlike conduct
86'Samuel LinoAssist: J. Carrascal
88'Pedro INEverton out
89'G. JustinoRoughing
90'J. CarrascalAssist: Everton

Lineups

Flamengo
4-2-3-1Coach: Leonardo Jardim
Botafogo
3-4-2-1Coach: Franclim Carvalho
Agustín Rossi1A. RossiAgustín Rossi
Emerson Royal22E. RoyalEmerson Royal
Léo Ortiz3L. OrtizLéo Ortiz
Léo Pereira4L. PereiraLéo Pereira
Ayrton Lucas6A. LucasAyrton Lucas
Erick Pulgar5E. PulgarErick Pulgar
Jorginho21JorginhoJorginho
Luiz Araújo7L. AraújoLuiz Araújo
Giorgian de Arrascaeta10G. de ArrascaetaGiorgian de Arrascaeta
Samuel Lino16S. LinoSamuel Lino
Pedro Guilherme9P. GuilhermePedro Guilherme
Gabriel Batista12G. BatistaGabriel Batista
Nahuel Ferraresi5N. FerraresiNahuel Ferraresi
Gabriel Justino34G. JustinoGabriel Justino
Marçal21MarçalMarçal
Vitinho2VitinhoVitinho
Huguinho75HuguinhoHuguinho
Danilo Santos8D. SantosDanilo Santos
Alex Telles13A. TellesAlex Telles
Edenilson88EdenilsonEdenilson
Álvaro Montoro10Á. MontoroÁlvaro Montoro
Arthur Cabral19A. CabralArthur Cabral

Flamengo Substitutes

20Lucas PaquetáM
49Dyogo AlvesG
42AndrewG
61João VictorD
77Johnny GoesD
2Guillermo VarelaD
13DaniloD
15Jorge CarrascalM
99LorranM
52Evertton AraujoM
11EvertonF
39JosmarF

Botafogo Substitutes

33Lucas MonzónD
90DaniloF
6Cristian MedinaM
62Cléber LucasG
17WarlesonG
42Kadu SantosD
59Kauan ToledoM
77Lucas VillalbaF
91Domingos AndradeM
25AllanM
37Kadir BarríaF
7Júnior SantosF

Match Stats

FlamengoBotafogo
64%Ball Possession36%
5Corner Kicks3
0Yellow Cards2
18Total Shots15
6Shots on Goal5
6Shots off Goal5
11Shots Inside Box10
7Shots Outside Box5
6Blocked Shots5
8Fouls9
3Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves3
646Total Passes360
583Passes Accurate299
90%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

FlamengoFlamengo
BotafogoBotafogo
1898Elo Rating 1673
1.56Attack 1.32
2.50Defense 1.31
73%Hit Rate 27%
16.3Shots per Game 19.9
4.9Shots on Target 5.6
9.3Corners per Game 6.1
2.5Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+226 Elo
📈BTTS Trend23% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

FlamengoFlamengo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.3 in first half)
BotafogoBotafogo
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Flamengo 83%Draw 17%0% Botafogo
2.22Avg Goals
23%BTTS Rate
69%Over 2.5

Recent Form

FlamengoFlamengo
3W1D1L
23/08/2026
CruzeiroFlamengo
21
L20/08/2026
FlamengoCruzeiro
21
W
16/08/2026
MirassolFlamengo
15
W
13/08/2026
CruzeiroFlamengo
11
D10/08/2026
FlamengoVitoria
20
W
BotafogoBotafogo
1W1D3L
25/08/2026
BotafogoAtletico Paranaense
23
L
21/08/2026
BotafogoCienciano
10
W
16/08/2026
VitoriaBotafogo
10
L
14/08/2026
CiencianoBotafogo
61
L09/08/2026
BotafogoFluminense
11
D

Referee Profile

Alex Gomes Stefano, Brazil · 27 matches analysed

5.1Avg Yellows
5.5Avg Cards
29.0Avg Fouls
Stricter than 90% of referees analysed

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo27176453:22+3157WWWWL
2PalmeirasPalmeiras28169347:21+2657DWDDW
3FluminenseFluminense28139644:36+848WLWDW
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense27137741:31+1046DLDWD
5BahiaBahia271210542:33+946WWWWD
6CruzeiroCruzeiro28136942:40+245WLWLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG27117936:32+440DWLWD
8SantosSantos27108941:40+138WWWWD
9CoritibaCoritiba281081037:43-638LDLWW
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino261061032:29+336DLLWD
11Sao PauloSao Paulo271061132:30+236WLWWL
12BotafogoBotafogo28981141:45-435LWDDL
13VitoriaVitoria28961328:42-1433LDWLL
14CorinthiansCorinthians28881229:32-332LLLLL
15MirassolMirassol28881233:42-932WDWLD
16Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama27871234:41-731WWLWL
17GremioGremio28781330:38-829DLLLW
18InternacionalInternacional286101230:36-628LWLLD
19RemoRemo28581532:47-1523LLLLL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc27391529:53-2418DLWLW
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo2753:2257
2PalmeirasPalmeiras2847:2157
3FluminenseFluminense2844:3648
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense2741:3146
5BahiaBahia2742:3346
6CruzeiroCruzeiro2842:4045
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG2736:3240
8SantosSantos2741:4038
9CoritibaCoritiba2837:4338
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino2632:2936
11Sao PauloSao Paulo2732:3036
12BotafogoBotafogo2841:4535
13VitoriaVitoria2828:4233
14CorinthiansCorinthians2829:3232
15MirassolMirassol2833:4232
16Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama2734:4131
17GremioGremio2830:3829
18InternacionalInternacional2830:3628
19RemoRemo2832:4723
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc2729:5318
PromotionRelegation

Flamengo vs Botafogo Prediction

This Serie A meeting between Flamengo and Botafogo carries extra rivalry weight, and our AI model factors that context in alongside team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Serie A

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Key Factors for This Match

Flamengo and Botafogo have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.22 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.