Flamengo vs Botafogo Prediction

Flamengo
3-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Botafogo
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro·Alex Gomes Stefano, Brazil 30/08/2026
FlamengoFlamengo
3-0
Finished
BotafogoBotafogo

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
Value Analysis
56%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.81
SignalNEUTRALModel62%SurpriseMediumGap+5.1%
Flamengo Rest
7 days
Botafogo Rest
5 days

Flamengo vs Botafogo: the result in context

Flamengo beat Botafogo 3-0 in the Serie A on 30 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Flamengo had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Botafogo.

Flamengo have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.5 goals a game. Flamengo tend to win more corners, 8.5 a game to 5.9 for Botafogo.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
65%1.40
X
21%4.60
2
14%7.00
Double Chance
1X
86%1.09
X2
35%2.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.81
No
44%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.74 + 0.94 = 2.68
Over 1.5
76%1.20
Over 2.5
56%1.63
Over 3.5
33%2.60
Under 1.5
24%4.40
Under 2.5
44%2.25
Under 3.5
67%1.45
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.5 + 4.1 = 10.7
Over 8.5
71%1.34
Over 9.5
65%1.57
Over 10.5
47%2.00
Under 8.5
29%3.00
Under 9.5
35%2.27
Under 10.5
53%1.75
Cards
Projected Cards: 1 + 2.6 = 3.5
Over 3.5
47%-
Over 4.5
24%-
Under 3.5
53%-
Under 4.5
76%-

Match Events

9'Goal Disallowed - handballArthur Cabral
13'Samuel LinoAssist: Jorginho
21'Alex Telles INL. Monzon out
46'A. Montoro INDanilo Pereira out
57'Luiz Araujo INLucas Paqueta out
66'Edenilson INC. Medina out
69'Goal Disallowed - offsideLucas Paqueta
75'G. de Arrascaeta INJ. Carrascal out
77'Arthur Cabral INL. M. Villalba Jaume out
77'Vitinho INJunior Santos out
83'MarcalUnsportsmanlike conduct
86'Samuel LinoAssist: J. Carrascal
88'Pedro INEverton out
89'G. JustinoRoughing
90'J. CarrascalAssist: Everton

Lineups

Flamengo
4-2-3-1Coach: Leonardo Jardim
Botafogo
3-4-2-1Coach: Franclim Carvalho
Avg rating7.38
Avg rating6.70
Agustín Rossi8.01A. Rossi
Emerson Royal7.322E. Royal
Léo Ortiz7.03L. Ortiz
Léo Pereira7.04L. Pereira
Ayrton Lucas7.26A. Lucas
Erick Pulgar7.95E. Pulgar
Jorginho7.521Jorginho
Luiz Araújo6.37L. Araújo
Giorgian de ArrascaetaC7.010G. de Arrascaeta
Samuel Lino9.616S. Lino
Pedro Guilherme6.59P. Guilherme
Gabriel Batista6.012G. Batista
Nahuel Ferraresi7.25N. Ferraresi
Gabriel Justino6.534G. Justino
Marçal5.921Marçal
Vitinho7.32Vitinho
Huguinho7.375Huguinho
Danilo Santos7.28D. Santos
Alex TellesC6.513A. Telles
Edenilson6.788Edenilson
Álvaro Montoro6.210Á. Montoro
Arthur Cabral7.219A. Cabral

Flamengo Substitutes

20Lucas Paquetá57'for Luiz Araujo6.3
49Dyogo Alves
42Andrew
61João Victor
77Johnny Goes
2Guillermo Varela
13Danilo
15Jorge Carrascal75'for G. de Arrascaeta90'8.3
99Lorran
52Evertton Araujo
11Everton88'for Pedro
39Josmar

Botafogo Substitutes

33Lucas Monzón21'for Alex Telles7.0
90Danilo46'for A. Montoro6.6
6Cristian Medina66'for Edenilson6.5
62Cléber Lucas
17Warleson
42Kadu Santos
59Kauan Toledo
77Lucas Villalba77'for Arthur Cabral6.5
91Domingos Andrade
25Allan
37Kadir Barría
7Júnior Santos77'for Vitinho6.6

Match Stats

FlamengoBotafogo
63%Ball Possession37%
5Corner Kicks3
0Yellow Cards2
18Total Shots14
6Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal5
11Shots Inside Box9
7Shots Outside Box5
6Blocked Shots5
8Fouls9
3Offsides3
4Goalkeeper Saves3
653Total Passes366
588Passes Accurate303
90%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

FlamengoFlamengo
BotafogoBotafogo
1940Elo Rating 1624
2.73Attack 0.81
2.11Defense 1.82
83%Hit Rate 44%
18.6Shots per Game 14.5
7.9Shots on Target 4.6
8.5Corners per Game 5.9
1.1Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+316 Elo
🔥Derby Match
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

FlamengoFlamengo
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.7 vs 1.1 in second half)
BotafogoBotafogo
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.6 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

FlamengoFlamengo7Wins · 70%
Draws110%
BotafogoBotafogo2Wins · 20%
2.5Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A15/03/2026
BotafogoFlamengo
03
Carioca - 115/02/2026
BotafogoFlamengo
12
Serie A16/10/2025
BotafogoFlamengo
03
Serie A18/05/2025
FlamengoBotafogo
00
Carioca - 113/02/2025
FlamengoBotafogo
10
Supercopa do Brasil02/02/2025
BotafogoFlamengo
13
Serie A18/08/2024
BotafogoFlamengo
41
Serie A28/04/2024
FlamengoBotafogo
02
Carioca - 108/02/2024
FlamengoBotafogo
10
Serie A03/09/2023
BotafogoFlamengo
12

Referee Profile

Alex Gomes Stefano139 matches

5.15Cards per match
4.87Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
29.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Alex Gomes Stefano5.15
Other referees5.25

5.15 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.25).

Cards come from 97 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Flamengo vs Botafogo forecast

As a derby, this Serie A meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Flamengo and Botafogo in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Flamengo are 1st and Botafogo 11th, 34 points apart. League goal record so far: Flamengo 71-29, Botafogo 46-53. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Flamengo have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.