Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica Prediction

Estadio Banco De Guayaquil, Quito·Gabriel Ismael Gonzalez Cordero 23/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
59%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.62
SignalNEUTRALModel61%SurpriseMediumGap-3.1%
Independiente del Valle Rest
6 days
Universidad Catolica Rest
4 days

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica: the result in context

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica drew 0-0 in the Liga Pro on 23 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Independiente del Valle tend to win more corners, 5.9 a game to 3.3 for Universidad Catolica.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%1.62
X
25%3.85
2
17%4.83
Double Chance
1X
82%1.14
X2
42%2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.72
No
47%1.99
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.86 + 0.87 = 2.73
Over 1.5
76%1.21
Over 2.5
53%1.73
Over 3.5
32%2.73
Under 1.5
24%3.91
Under 2.5
47%2.05
Under 3.5
68%1.40
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

26'Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso PeredaFoul
47'Daniel ClavijoFoul
51'Youri OchoaFoul
62'José FajardoFoul
63'Youri Ochoa INHugo Quintana out
64'Djorkaeff Reascos INCarlos González out
72'Jerónimo CacciabueFoul
76'Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios INEmerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez out
76'Ronald Briones INJunior Sornoza out
78'Goal cancelledJuan Viacava
82'Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Pereda INJimmy Evans out
82'Jerónimo Cacciabue INFacundo Martinez out
87'Matias Mijail Perello INEdwin Quintero out
90+3'Mauro Díaz INAndrés Rodríguez out
90+3'Daniel Clavijo INLuis Johan Moreno out

Lineups

Independiente del Valle
4-1-4-1Coach: Joaquín Papa
Universidad Catolica
4-4-2Coach: D. Martínez
Avg rating6.65
Avg rating6.81
A. Quintana6.71A. Quintana
J. Espinoza7.14J. Espinoza
M. Carabajal7.314M. Carabajal
G. Cortéz7.215G. Cortéz
Y. Ochoa6.38Y. Ochoa
R. Briones7.016R. Briones
M. Perelló6.811M. Perelló
1818S. Daniel Góngora Palacios
J. Méndez7.132J. Méndez
D. Reasco6.399D. Reasco
2323J. Viacava
J. Lara8.012J. Lara
G. Anangonó7.629G. Anangonó
L. Cangá7.033L. Cangá
33J. García
E. Mejía7.030E. Mejía
A. Londoño6.59A. Londoño
D. Clavijo6.38D. Clavijo
J. Cacciabue6.75J. Cacciabue
M. Alonso6.332M. Alonso
J. Fajardo6.07J. Fajardo
M. Díaz6.928M. Díaz

Independiente del Valle Substitutes

6J. Alcívar
9C. González64'for Djorkaeff Reascos6.6
19L. Loor
31Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez76'replaced by Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios6.5
70M. Peralta
28H. Quintana63'for Youri Ochoa6.5
56E. Quintero87'for Matias Mijail Perello6.1
13Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
5R. Schunke
10J. Sornoza76'for Ronald Briones6.6
33Andy René Velasco García
52Y. Vásquez

Universidad Catolica Substitutes

26Foad Eid
1Lucas Cueva Gordillo
11J. Evans82'for Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Pereda6.7
10F. Martínez82'for Jerónimo Cacciabue6.5
37C. Medina
15L. Moreno90+3'for Daniel Clavijo
24Darwin Carlos Nazareno Arroyo
18B. Palacios
23Alex Andrés Rodríguez Reascos90+3'for Mauro Díaz
19M. Sevillano
17R. Troya
14J. Mina

Match Stats

Independiente del ValleUniversidad Catolica
46%Ball Possession54%
8Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards4
12Total Shots10
4Shots on Goal1
5Shots off Goal3
6Shots Inside Box4
6Shots Outside Box6
3Blocked Shots6
9Fouls12
2Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves4
330Total Passes416
277Passes Accurate358
11Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica
1793Elo Rating 1623
0.86Attack 0.91
2.44Defense 2.10
36%Hit Rate 37%
11.3Shots per Game 8.9
4.3Shots on Target 1.7
5.9Corners per Game 3.3
1.5Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+170 Elo
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle5Wins · 50%
Draws220%
Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica3Wins · 30%
2.7Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Liga Pro29/08/2026
Independiente del ValleUniversidad Catolica
22
Supercopa de Ecuador14/05/2026
Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del Valle
03
Liga Pro01/05/2026
Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del Valle
23
Liga Pro14/12/2025
Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del Valle
01
Liga Pro08/11/2025
Independiente del ValleUniversidad Catolica
02
Copa Ecuador14/10/2025
Independiente del ValleUniversidad Catolica
12
Liga Pro29/06/2025
Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del Valle
03
Liga Pro02/03/2025
Independiente del ValleUniversidad Catolica
11
Copa Ecuador29/10/2024
Independiente del ValleUniversidad Catolica
1102
Copa Ecuador22/10/2024
Universidad CatolicaIndependiente del Valle
01

Recent Form

Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica
4W3D3L
18/10/2026
Barcelona SCUniversidad Catolica
12
W
11/10/2026
Universidad CatolicaMacara
01
L
21/09/2026
LDU de QuitoUniversidad Catolica
21
L
15/09/2026
Universidad CatolicaOrense SC
21
W
06/09/2026
Delfin SCUniversidad Catolica
01
W
03/09/2026
Universidad CatolicaAucas
11
D
29/08/2026
Independiente del ValleUniversidad Catolica
22
D
22/08/2026
Universidad CatolicaManta FC
51
W
18/08/2026
MacaraUniversidad Catolica
11
D
10/08/2026
LibertadUniversidad Catolica
21
L

Referee Profile

Gabriel Ismael Gonzalez Cordero81 matches

4.96Cards per match
4.66Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
26.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Gabriel Ismael Gonzalez Cordero4.96
Other referees5.19

4.96 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.19).

Cards come from 74 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga Pro 2026

Liga Pro: Regular season

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle30242473:33+4074DLWWW
2Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica30149751:27+2451DWLLW
3MacaraMacara30156941:33+851WWWWW
4AucasAucas30148833:28+550LDLLD
5LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito301371031:24+746LDWWD
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC301111832:25+744WLLDD
7LibertadLibertad301181133:34-141LWWWL
8Leones del NorteLeones del Norte301091131:32-139WLLDL
9Guayaquil City FCGuayaquil City FC301091133:36-339WLWDW
10EmelecEmelec301091125:34-939LWLLL
11Mushuc Runa SCMushuc Runa SC309111035:38-338DLDLD
12Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca301061425:37-1236WWDDD
13Orense SCOrense SC30961536:47-1133WDDLL
14Tecnico UniversitarioTecnico Universitario301021828:42-1432LLDWL
15Delfin SCDelfin SC30771619:31-1228LWWDD
16Manta FCManta FC30561917:42-2521LLWWD
#TeamMPGPts
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle3073:3374
2Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica3051:2751
3MacaraMacara3041:3351
4AucasAucas3033:2850
5LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito3031:2446
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC3032:2544
7LibertadLibertad3033:3441
8Leones del NorteLeones del Norte3031:3239
9Guayaquil City FCGuayaquil City FC3033:3639
10EmelecEmelec3025:3439
11Mushuc Runa SCMushuc Runa SC3035:3838
12Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca3025:3736
13Orense SCOrense SC3036:4733
14Tecnico UniversitarioTecnico Universitario3028:4232
15Delfin SCDelfin SC3019:3128
16Manta FCManta FC3017:4221

Liga Pro: Championship Group

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle33253575:35+4078DLWWW
2MacaraMacara34196947:35+1263WWWWW
3Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica341411953:31+2253DWLLW
4LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito341581137:29+853LDWWD
5AucasAucas341491136:37-151LDLLD
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC331212938:28+1048WLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle3375:3578
2MacaraMacara3447:3563
3Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica3453:3153
4LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito3437:2953
5AucasAucas3436:3751
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC3338:2848
PromotionRelegation

About the Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica forecast

The forecasts for this Liga Pro match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica in the Liga Pro table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Independiente del Valle are 1st in the Liga Pro, 23 points ahead of Universidad Catolica in 2nd. League goal record so far: Independiente del Valle 73-33, Universidad Catolica 51-27. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.