Lech Poznan vs Sunderland Prediction
World · League Stage - 3
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.20
SignalGOODModel49%SurpriseMediumGap-12.0%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Over 1.5
1.52
SignalGOODModel70%SurpriseMediumGap+6.3%
Lech Poznan Rest
4 days
Sunderland Rest
4 days
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland: the result in context
Lech Poznan and Sunderland drew 1-1 in the UEFA Europa League on 22 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Referee Balazs Berke averages 3.76 cards a game, 0.69 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
127%4.60
X25%3.90
248%1.71
Double Chance
1X52%2.10
X273%1.20
Both Teams to Score
Yes53%1.70
No47%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.69 + 1.09 = 2.78
Over 1.577%1.22
Over 2.554%1.75
Over 3.533%2.86
Under 1.523%4.00
Under 2.546%2.07
Under 3.567%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.4 + 3.6 = 8
Over 8.540%1.52
Over 9.530%1.92
Over 10.521%2.44
Under 8.560%2.33
Under 9.570%1.86
Under 10.579%1.49
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.4 = 4.5
Over 3.566%1.73
Over 4.547%2.44
Under 3.534%2.02
Under 4.553%1.52
Match Events
2'Timur TutierovAssist: Nilson Angulo
41'Kevin DansoFoul
62'Daniel Håkans INLuis Palma out
62'Pablo Rodriguez Delgado INLeo Bengtsson out
63'Nilson Angulo INChris Rigg out
63'Habib Diarra INEnzo Le Fée out
63'Granit Xhaka INNoah Sadiki out
63'Nordi Mukiele INTrai Hume out
70'Leo Bengtsson
82'Patrick Walemark INGustav Berggren out
83'Radosław Murawski INY. Agnero out
85'Timur Tutierov INReinildo Isnard Mandava out
87'Mikael Ishak INFilip Jagiełło out
Lineups
Lech PoznanSunderland
4-2-3-1Coach: R. Le BrisAvg ratingAvg rating
1M. Lis
2J. Pereira
72M. Skrzypczak
59T. Yegbe
15M. Gurgul
43A. Kozubal
22R. Murawski
10P. Wålemark
21P. Rodríguez
11D. Håkans
9M. Ishak
22R. Roefs
20N. Mukiele
4K. Danso
13L. O'Nien
6D. Methalie
34G. Xhaka
29J. Ahoka
10N. Angulo
19H. Diarra
39M. Fofana
57T. TuterovLech Poznan Substitutes
7Y. Agnero83'for Radosław Murawski
55Piotr Bartczak
14L. Bengtsson62'for Pablo Rodriguez Delgado70'
5G. Berggren82'for Patrick Walemark
24F. Jagiełło87'for Mikael Ishak
90H. Janyszka
31Wiktor Obremski
77L. Palma62'for Daniel Håkans
33M. Pruchniewski
56W. Szymczak
Sunderland Substitutes
32T. Hume63'for Nordi Mukiele
40J. Whittaker
47T. Ogunsuyi
27N. Sadiki63'for Granit Xhaka
11C. Rigg63'for Nilson Angulo
77T. Proctor
21S. Moore
17Reinildo85'for Timur Tutierov
28E. Le Fée63'for Habib Diarra
15O. Alderete
48Jenson Jones
49F. Scott
Match Stats
Lech PoznanSunderland 43%Ball Possession57%
3Corner Kicks6
0Yellow Cards1
16Total Shots25
6Shots on Goal11
8Shots off Goal11
14Shots Inside Box20
2Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots3
7Fouls13
1Offsides1
11Goalkeeper Saves5
391Total Passes506
309Passes Accurate443
13Free Kicks7
Team Comparison
Lech PoznanSunderland1748Elo Rating 1759
3.23Attack 1.10
0.89Defense 1.01
63%Hit Rate 37%
15.9Shots per Game 13.8
5.6Shots on Target 3.9
5.4Corners per Game 6.8
2.0Cards per Game 2.1
AI Insights
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Lech Poznan- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.8 vs 1.5 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Sunderland- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
Recent Form
Lech Poznan6W1D3L
18/10/2026Lech Poznan
Korona KielceLech Poznan
Bayer Leverkusen
Slask WroclawLech PoznanLech Poznan
Radomiak Radom
Crystal PalaceLech Poznan
Gornik ZabrzeLech PoznanLech Poznan
Raków CzęstochowaLech Poznan
Jagiellonia
Widzew ŁódźLech Poznan
Lech PoznanKorona Kielce61
W15/10/2026Lech PoznanBayer Leverkusen04
L10/10/2026Slask WroclawLech Poznan14
W03/10/2026Lech Poznan
Energie Cottbus
20/09/2026Lech PoznanEnergie Cottbus22
DLech PoznanRadomiak Radom51
W17/09/2026Crystal PalaceLech Poznan40
L12/09/2026Gornik ZabrzeLech Poznan21
L06/09/2026Lech PoznanRaków Częstochowa10
W03/09/2026Lech PoznanJagiellonia21
W30/08/2026Widzew ŁódźLech Poznan23
WSunderland4W1D5L
18/10/2026
BournemouthSunderland
TorreenseSunderlandSunderland
Brighton
Manchester CitySunderlandSunderland
AZ AlkmaarSunderland
ArsenalSunderland
Hull City
BrentfordSunderlandSunderland
Fulham
IpswichSunderland
BournemouthSunderland20
L15/10/2026TorreenseSunderland12
W10/10/2026SunderlandBrighton02
L20/09/2026Manchester CitySunderland53
L16/09/2026SunderlandAZ Alkmaar10
W12/09/2026SunderlandArsenal02
L08/09/2026SunderlandHull City10
W05/09/2026BrentfordSunderland11
D30/08/2026SunderlandFulham10
W22/08/2026IpswichSunderland21
LReferee Profile
3.76Cards per match
3.65Yellow cards per match
0.12Red cards per match
24.6Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
3.76 cards a match, 0.69 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.45).
Cards come from 51 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | +6 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 7 | WDW |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:3 | +6 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:5 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | +2 | 7 | DWW |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | +4 | 6 | WWL |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | +1 | 5 | DWD |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | +5 | 4 | WDL |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | +2 | 4 | LDW |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 4 | WDL |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:8 | -3 | 4 | WDL |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:6 | -3 | 4 | DLW |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:3 | +1 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 | LWL |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:7 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:6 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 31 |  Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:9 | -7 | 1 | LDL |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:9 | -8 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 |  Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:9 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:11 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Europa League
Bracket
Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Kairat Almaty
Mjallby AIF
TrabzonsporLillestromArarat-Armenia
Kauno Žalgiris
St. Truiden
FK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFI
Aarhus
Larne
Saburtalo
Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia RrogozhinëGornik Zabrze
KuPS
Universitatea CraiovaJagiellonia
RangersLech Poznan
KI Klaksvik
Lincoln Red Imps FCOmonia NicosiaRed Bull Salzburg
FC Thun
Vikingur Reykjavik
Heart Of Midlothian
Tromso
Hradec Králové
PAOK
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hammarby FFAnderlecht
FC ST. GallenBenfica
TwenteBeşiktaş
FC Midtjylland
PafosKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusLarneSaburtaloShamrock RoversEgnatia RrogozhinëGornik ZabrzeKuPSUniversitatea CraiovaJagielloniaRangersLech PoznanKI KlaksvikLincoln Red Imps FCOmonia NicosiaRed Bull SalzburgFC ThunVikingur ReykjavikHeart Of MidlothianKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusLarneSaburtaloShamrock RoversEgnatia RrogozhinëGornik ZabrzeKuPSUniversitatea CraiovaJagielloniaRangersLech PoznanKI KlaksvikLincoln Red Imps FCOmonia NicosiaRed Bull SalzburgFC ThunVikingur ReykjavikHeart Of MidlothianTromsoHradec KrálovéPAOKMaccabi Tel AvivHammarby FFAnderlechtFC ST. GallenBenficaTwenteBeşiktaşFC MidtjyllandPafosExplore more predictions
This match
About the Lech Poznan vs Sunderland forecast
This is a UEFA Europa League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Lech Poznan and Sunderland in the UEFA Europa League table
In the UEFA Europa League table, Sunderland are 9th and Lech Poznan 32nd, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Lech Poznan 1-9, Sunderland 4-2. The full standings are on the UEFA Europa League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Lech Poznan have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Lech Poznan and Sunderland have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.