Sunderland vs Brighton Prediction

Sunderland
0-2
Finished
HT 0-0
Brighton
Stadium of Light, Sunderland·Thomas Bramall 10/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.36
SignalSOLIDModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-4.4%
Value Analysis
59%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.67
SignalSOLIDModel59%SurpriseMediumGap+3.3%
Sunderland Rest
20 days
Brighton Rest
21 days

Sunderland vs Brighton: the result in context

Brighton beat Sunderland 2-0 in the Premier League on 10 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
29%3.09
X
28%3.45
2
43%2.31
Double Chance
1X
57%1.61
X2
71%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%1.62
No
41%2.15
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.32 + 1.61 = 2.93
Over 1.5
77%1.25
Over 2.5
56%1.83
Over 3.5
33%3.05
Under 1.5
23%3.90
Under 2.5
44%2.00
Under 3.5
67%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.8 = 9.7
Over 8.5
61%1.57
Over 9.5
51%1.97
Over 10.5
41%2.45
Under 8.5
39%2.29
Under 9.5
49%1.77
Under 10.5
59%1.46
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.1 = 4.2
Over 3.5
60%1.55
Over 4.5
41%2.10
Under 3.5
40%2.40
Under 4.5
59%1.67

Match Events

34'Thomas Meunier INMalick Fofana out
36'Olivier BoscagliFoul
53'Maxim De CuyperAssist: Pascal Groß
56'Card upgrade confirmedPascal Struijk
57'Pascal Struijk
60'Charalampos Kostoulas INLewis Dunk out
68'Olivier Boscagli INCostinha out
68'Maxim De Cuyper INMalick Yalcouyé out
73'Reinildo Isnard Mandava INDayann Methalie out
73'Nilson Angulo INDjiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi out
81'Enzo Le Fée INJuan Riquelme Angulo out
88'Yasin Ayari INGeorginio Rutter out
88'Diego Gomez INJaouen Hadjam out
90+3'Jaouen HadjamAssist: Georginio Rutter

Lineups

Sunderland
4-2-3-1Coach: R. Le Bris
Brighton
4-2-3-1Coach: F. Hürzeler
Avg rating6.40
Avg rating6.96
R. Roefs5.822R. Roefs
T. Hume6.332T. Hume
N. Mukiele7.620N. Mukiele
K. Danso6.74K. Danso
Reinildo6.517Reinildo
G. Xhaka6.634G. Xhaka
N. Sadiki6.627N. Sadiki
T. Meunier5.812T. Meunier
E. Le Fée6.928E. Le Fée
N. Angulo6.010N. Angulo
W. Isidor6.018W. Isidor
B. Verbruggen6.71B. Verbruggen
F. Kadıoğlu7.424F. Kadıoğlu
L. Vušković7.044L. Vušković
P. Struijk6.04P. Struijk
O. Boscagli6.921O. Boscagli
José María Andrés Baixauli6.314J. María Andrés Baixauli
P. Groß7.713P. Groß
D. Gómez6.425D. Gómez
Y. Ayari6.526Y. Ayari
M. De Cuyper8.029M. De Cuyper
C. Kostoulas6.719C. Kostoulas

Sunderland Substitutes

15O. Alderete
50J. Angulo81'for Enzo Le Fée6.2
37J. Bi73'for Nilson Angulo6.3
31M. Ellborg
39M. Fofana34'for Thomas Meunier6.6
6D. Methalie73'for Reinildo Isnard Mandava6.4
13L. O'Nien
11C. Rigg
7C. Talbi

Brighton Substitutes

23J. Steele
10G. Rutter88'for Yasin Ayari6.8
15I. Osman
33M. O'Riley
20Costinha68'for Olivier Boscagli7.0
3J. Hadjam88'for Diego Gomez90+3'7.9
5L. Dunk60'for Charalampos Kostoulas7.3
12P. David
35M. Yalcouyé68'for Maxim De Cuyper6.8

Match Stats

SunderlandBrighton
62%Ball Possession38%
7Corner Kicks5
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
12Total Shots13
3Shots on Goal4
2Shots off Goal7
4Shots Inside Box6
8Shots Outside Box7
7Blocked Shots2
8Fouls12
5Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves3
501Total Passes309
388Passes Accurate208
11Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

SunderlandSunderland
BrightonBrighton
1759Elo Rating 1963
1.10Attack 3.57
1.01Defense 2.72
37%Hit Rate 100%
13.8Shots per Game 20.5
3.9Shots on Target 6.8
6.8Corners per Game 7.4
2.1Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.93 goals
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

SunderlandSunderland
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
BrightonBrighton
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

SunderlandSunderland0Wins · 0%
Draws150%
BrightonBrighton1Wins · 50%
0.5Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 2
0%3+ goals0 of 2

Previous meetings

Premier League14/03/2026
SunderlandBrighton
01
Premier League20/12/2025
BrightonSunderland
00

Referee Profile

Thomas Bramall182 matches

3.61Cards per match
3.48Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
22.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Thomas Bramall3.61
Other referees3.78

3.61 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.78).

Cards come from 174 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Manchester CityManchester City770019:7+1221WWWWW
2ArsenalArsenal760111:5+618WWLWW
3BrightonBrighton751123:5+1816WWWWD
4ChelseaChelsea741217:13+413WWLDL
5LiverpoolLiverpool73319:8+112WLWDW
6BrentfordBrentford724113:8+510LDWDD
7LeedsLeeds72419:6+310DLDWD
8EvertonEverton72418:7+110LDWDD
9Hull CityHull City72328:7+19LDLDD
10IpswichIpswich730411:15-49LWLWL
11NewcastleNewcastle722310:14-48LLWLD
12Aston VillaAston Villa72237:11-48WDWLD
13Manchester UnitedManchester United714210:1007DDDLD
14Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace72149:17-87LWDLW
15BournemouthBournemouth71339:13-46WLLDD
16TottenhamTottenham71336:10-46WDLDD
17CoventryCoventry72056:14-86LWWLL
18FulhamFulham71247:10-35WLDDL
19Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest71245:9-45LLLWD
20SunderlandSunderland71156:14-84LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Manchester CityManchester City719:721
2ArsenalArsenal711:518
3BrightonBrighton723:516
4ChelseaChelsea717:1313
5LiverpoolLiverpool79:812
6BrentfordBrentford713:810
7LeedsLeeds79:610
8EvertonEverton78:710
9Hull CityHull City78:79
10IpswichIpswich711:159
11NewcastleNewcastle710:148
12Aston VillaAston Villa77:118
13Manchester UnitedManchester United710:107
14Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace79:177
15BournemouthBournemouth79:136
16TottenhamTottenham76:106
17CoventryCoventry76:146
18FulhamFulham77:105
19Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest75:95
20SunderlandSunderland76:144
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Sunderland vs Brighton forecast

The forecasts for this Premier League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Sunderland and Brighton in the Premier League table

The table shows a wide gap: Brighton are 3rd in the Premier League, while Sunderland sit 20th, 12 points behind. League goal record so far: Sunderland 6-14, Brighton 23-5. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Brighton have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Sunderland and Brighton have met only 2 times recently, averaging 0.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.