Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan Prediction
Poland · Regular Season - 12
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.1 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalHIGHModel40%SurpriseMediumGap-3.8%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.55
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+3.7%
Legia Warszawa Rest
7 days
Lech Poznan Rest
2 days
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan: the result in context
Lech Poznan beat Legia Warszawa 2-1 in the Ekstraklasa on 25 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
137%2.51
X28%3.44
235%2.55
Double Chance
1X65%1.47
X263%1.46
Both Teams to Score
Yes60%1.53
No40%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.43 + 1.27 = 2.70
Over 1.579%1.20
Over 2.556%1.67
Over 3.534%2.62
Under 1.521%4.20
Under 2.544%2.15
Under 3.566%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.5 + 4.9 = 9.4
Over 8.558%1.46
Over 9.546%1.80
Over 10.535%2.26
Under 8.542%2.48
Under 9.554%1.88
Under 10.565%1.55
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.6 + 2.4 = 5
Over 3.573%-
Over 4.555%-
Under 3.527%-
Under 4.545%-
Match Events
14'Mikael Ishak INY. Agnero out
15'Paweł WszołekFoul
29'Rafal Adamski INMateusz Szczepaniak out
45'Paweł Wszołek INRúben Vinagre out
56'Y. AgneroAssist: Leo Bengtsson
60'Terry YegbeFoul
66'Leo BengtssonFoul
67'Michal Sevcik INBogdan V'Yunnik out
67'Kacper Chodyna INShinnosuke Fukuda out
67'Patrick Walemark INLuis Palma out
67'Pablo Rodriguez Delgado INFilip Jagiełło out
67'Leo Bengtsson INDaniel Håkans out
71'Bartosz KapustkaFoul
74'Bogdan V'YunnikAssist: Rafał Augustyniak
81'antoni kozubal INGustav Berggren out
85'Wojciech Urbanski INDamian Szymański out
87'Luis PalmaAssist: Daniel Håkans
Lineups
Legia WarszawaLech Poznan
4-4-2Coach: N. FrederiksenAvg ratingAvg rating
89O. Hindrich
91K. Piątkowski
8R. Augustyniak
5R. Deziel
22P. Wszołek
53W. Urbański
67B. Kapustka
11K. Chodyna
23M. Ševčík
79Ł. Zjawiński
9R. Adamski
1M. Lis
2J. Pereira
72M. Skrzypczak
59T. Yegbe
15M. Gurgul
10P. Wålemark
22R. Murawski
43A. Kozubal
14L. Bengtsson
9M. Ishak
21P. RodríguezLegia Warszawa Substitutes
1I. Brkić
4D. Szymański85'for Wojciech Urbanski
14A. Čolak
19Rúben Vinagre45'for Paweł Wszołek
17M. Szczepaniak29'for Rafal Adamski
27Bogdan V'Yunnik67'replaced by Michal Sevcik74'
13A. Reca
7J. Kuchta
2S. Fukuda67'for Kacper Chodyna
6Henrique Arreiol
24Z. Arsenić
Lech Poznan Substitutes
56W. Szymczak
33M. Pruchniewski
77L. Palma67'for Patrick Walemark87'
31Wiktor Obremski
24F. Jagiełło67'for Pablo Rodriguez Delgado
11D. Håkans67'for Leo Bengtsson
5G. Berggren81'for antoni kozubal
55Piotr Bartczak
7Y. Agnero14'for Mikael Ishak56'
90H. Janyszka
Match Stats
Legia WarszawaLech Poznan 56%Ball Possession44%
9Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards2
17Total Shots11
9Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal3
11Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots3
15Fouls12
2Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves8
479Total Passes381
405Passes Accurate309
85%Pass Accuracy81%
Team Comparison
Legia WarszawaLech Poznan1658Elo Rating 1747
1.90Attack 3.01
2.09Defense 1.42
56%Hit Rate 54%
13.3Shots per Game 15.8
4.3Shots on Target 5.7
3.7Corners per Game 4.8
1.3Cards per Game 1.5
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Legia Warszawa- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.7 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Lech Poznan- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Legia Warszawa2Wins · 20%Draws550%
Lech Poznan3Wins · 30%
3Wins · 30%2.4Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10
Previous meetings
26/04/2026Lech PoznanLegia Warszawa40
26/10/2025Legia WarszawaLech Poznan00
13/07/2025Lech PoznanLegia Warszawa12
11/05/2025Legia WarszawaLech Poznan01
10/11/2024Lech PoznanLegia Warszawa52
12/05/2024Lech PoznanLegia Warszawa12
12/11/2023Legia WarszawaLech Poznan00
16/04/2023Legia WarszawaLech Poznan22
01/10/2022Lech PoznanLegia Warszawa00
09/04/2022Lech PoznanLegia Warszawa11
Recent Form
Legia Warszawa5W4D1L
17/10/2026
Cracovia KrakowLegia WarszawaLegia Warszawa
Wisla Krakow
JagielloniaLegia WarszawaLegia Warszawa
Widzew Łódź
Motor LublinLegia WarszawaLegia Warszawa
Slask Wroclaw
Piast GliwiceLegia Warszawa
Cracovia KrakowLegia Warszawa11
D11/10/2026Legia WarszawaWisla Krakow20
W03/10/2026Legia Warszawa
Korona Kielce
20/09/2026Legia WarszawaKorona Kielce51
WJagielloniaLegia Warszawa13
W13/09/2026Legia WarszawaWidzew Łódź11
D05/09/2026Motor LublinLegia Warszawa23
W01/09/2026Motor LublinLegia Warszawa
28/08/2026Motor LublinLegia Warszawa30
LLegia WarszawaSlask Wroclaw11
D22/08/2026Piast GliwiceLegia Warszawa11
D14/08/2026Legia Warszawa
Radomiak Radom
Legia WarszawaRadomiak Radom50
WLech Poznan5W2D3L
22/10/2026Lech Poznan
SunderlandLech PoznanKorona KielceLech Poznan
Bayer LeverkusenSlask WroclawLech PoznanLech PoznanRadomiak Radom
Crystal PalaceLech Poznan
Gornik ZabrzeLech PoznanLech Poznan
Raków CzęstochowaLech PoznanJagiellonia
Lech PoznanSunderland11
D18/10/2026Lech PoznanKorona Kielce61
W15/10/2026Lech PoznanBayer Leverkusen04
L10/10/2026Slask WroclawLech Poznan14
W03/10/2026Lech Poznan
Energie Cottbus
20/09/2026Lech PoznanEnergie Cottbus22
DLech PoznanRadomiak Radom51
W17/09/2026Crystal PalaceLech Poznan40
L12/09/2026Gornik ZabrzeLech Poznan21
L06/09/2026Lech PoznanRaków Częstochowa10
W03/09/2026Lech PoznanJagiellonia21
WReferee Profile
4.22Cards per match
4.09Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.19 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.28).
Cards come from 269 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 29:10 | +19 | 28 | WWWWL |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 27 | DDWDW |
| 3 |  Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19:9 | +10 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 23:11 | +12 | 23 | LDWWD |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19:15 | +4 | 21 | WDLWW |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22:18 | +4 | 20 | WDWLW |
| 7 |  Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15:15 | 0 | 19 | DWLLW |
| 8 |  GKS Katowice | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 22:17 | +5 | 18 | LLWWW |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14:18 | -4 | 18 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14:17 | -3 | 15 | WLLLL |
| 11 |  Wisla Plock | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10:16 | -6 | 14 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 13 | DWWDL |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14:19 | -5 | 12 | LDWLL |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 15:16 | -1 | 11 | DDLDD |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16:22 | -6 | 9 | WLLLL |
| 16 |  Wieczysta Kraków | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16:23 | -7 | 8 | LLLWD |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12:28 | -16 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 16:28 | -12 | 6 | LWLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 11 | 29:10 | 28 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 21:11 | 27 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 19:9 | 24 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa | 12 | 23:11 | 23 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 12 | 19:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 22:18 | 20 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 15:15 | 19 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 22:17 | 18 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 14:18 | 18 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 11 | 14:17 | 15 |
| 11 | Wisla Plock | 11 | 10:16 | 14 |
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 17:21 | 13 |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 14:19 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | 15:16 | 11 |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 12 | 16:22 | 9 |
| 16 | Wieczysta Kraków | 12 | 16:23 | 8 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 12:28 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 16:28 | 6 |
Relegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Ekstraklasa matches
- Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom 24/10/26
- Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa 24/10/26
- Slask Wroclaw vs Wieczysta Kraków 25/10/26
- Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock 25/10/26
- Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin 30/10/26
- Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa 30/10/26
- Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice 31/10/26
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia 31/10/26
About the Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan forecast
As a derby, this Ekstraklasa meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan in the Ekstraklasa table
This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Lech Poznan are 1st in the Ekstraklasa, 5 points ahead of Legia Warszawa in 4th. League goal record so far: Legia Warszawa 23-11, Lech Poznan 29-10. The full standings are on the Ekstraklasa Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Legia Warszawa have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Lech Poznan have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.