Libertad vs Emelec Prediction
Ecuador · Placement Group - 6
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.18
SignalHIGHModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-6.5%
Libertad Rest
5 days
Emelec Rest
7 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
150%1.91
X26%3.50
224%3.56
Double Chance
1X76%1.25
X250%1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes57%1.55
No43%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.64 + 0.95 = 2.59
Over 1.576%1.18
Over 2.554%1.65
Over 3.534%2.50
Under 1.524%4.10
Under 2.546%2.13
Under 3.566%1.43
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
54'Teodoro ArceAssist: Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez
56'Enrique Rafael Caicedo Borja INAntony Chere out
59'Jackson RodriguezFoul
64'Jostin Bravo INEdu Pineda out
64'Bryan Caicedo INJawer Guisamano out
69'Luca Klimowicz INAlexander Arboleda out
71'Goal cancelledJose Francisco Cevallos
77'Red card cancelledAlexander Arboleda
78'Alexander ArboledaFoul
81'Vilinton German Branda Merlin INHancel Batalla out
81'cristhian valencia INCarlos Orejuela out
86'Aníbal LeguizamónFoul
88'Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez INAngelo Mina out
88'Teodoro Arce INGonzalo Nápoli out
90+5'Luis Gómez INIbrain Angelis Cuero Mercado out
Lineups
LibertadEmelec
4-4-2Coach: Ezequiel MedránAvg ratingAvg rating
12D. Cabezas
6B. Caicedo
5C. Gruezo
19O. Quiñónez
17E. Patta
30J. Bravo
63C. Valencia
20J. Rodríguez
70V. Germán Branda Merlín
9E. Caicedo
10G. Cortéz
12P. Ortíz
13L. Fernando Gómez Angulo
27F. León
2A. Leguizamón
3I. Guerrico
19J. Ruíz
6V. Griffith
21J. Cevallos
59R. Saya
7L. Klimowicz
11S. ArceLibertad Substitutes
23J. Guisamano64'for Bryan Caicedo
25M. Lucas
2R. Morinigo
7Carlos Alfredo Orejuela Quiñónez81'for cristhian valencia
80X. Pineda64'for Jostin Bravo
18Yerlin Quinonez
52A. Bao
11H. Batalla81'for Vilinton German Branda Merlin
8Stick Carlos Castro Palma
33A. Chére56'for Enrique Rafael Caicedo Borja
49D. Coronel
66J. Estacio
Emelec Substitutes
26I. Cuero90+5'for Luis Gómez
99Alexander Arboleda69'replaced by Luca Klimowicz78'
80O. Herrera
30Madison Ariel Mina Ibarra
5A. Mina88'for Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez
8G. Nápoli88'for Teodoro Arce
10F. Pizzini
4E. Segura
28B. Tobar
1Mario Alfredo Valero Sánchez
32J. Valverde
24A. Viteri
Match Stats
LibertadEmelec 52%Ball Possession48%
5Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards2
14Total Shots17
5Shots on Goal7
7Shots off Goal8
5Shots Inside Box11
9Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots2
13Fouls12
1Offsides3
5Goalkeeper Saves5
398Total Passes368
330Passes Accurate301
12Free Kicks12
Team Comparison
LibertadEmelec1567Elo Rating 1471
1.79Attack 1.06
1.94Defense 1.26
50%Hit Rate 19%
15.6Shots per Game 19.0
5.3Shots on Target 4.8
4.0Corners per Game 5.0
2.0Cards per Game 3.4
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Libertad- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Emelec- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings, all competitions
Libertad2Wins · 22%Draws556%
Emelec2Wins · 22%
2Wins · 22%1.9Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored6 of 9
33%3+ goals3 of 9
Previous meetings
20/09/2026EmelecLibertad12
04/09/2026LibertadEmelec11
10/05/2026EmelecLibertad11
04/08/2025LibertadEmelec12
12/04/2025EmelecLibertad11
30/11/2024LibertadEmelec21
02/06/2024EmelecLibertad00
05/08/2023LibertadEmelec00
27/02/2023EmelecLibertad20
Recent Form
Libertad5W2D3L
01/11/2026
Guayaquil City FCLibertad
Leones del NorteLibertadLibertadGuayaquil City FCLibertadLeones del NorteEmelecLibertadLibertadEmelec
AucasLibertad
Guayaquil City FCLibertad00
D25/10/2026Leones del NorteLibertad41
L17/10/2026LibertadGuayaquil City FC40
W09/10/2026LibertadLeones del Norte30
W20/09/2026EmelecLibertad12
W14/09/2026Libertad
Independiente del Valle
LibertadIndependiente del Valle23
L07/09/2026
Deportivo CuencaLibertad
04/09/2026Deportivo CuencaLibertad01
WLibertadEmelec11
D30/08/2026AucasLibertad10
L25/08/2026Libertad
Macara
LibertadMacara10
WEmelec3W1D6L
31/10/2026EmelecLeones del NorteEmelecGuayaquil City FCLeones del NorteEmelecGuayaquil City FCEmelecEmelecLibertadMacaraEmelecLibertadEmelec
EmelecLeones del Norte02
L25/10/2026EmelecGuayaquil City FC01
L18/10/2026Leones del NorteEmelec13
W10/10/2026Guayaquil City FCEmelec32
L20/09/2026EmelecLibertad12
L13/09/2026MacaraEmelec10
L08/09/2026Emelec
Manta FC
04/09/2026EmelecManta FC10
WLibertadEmelec11
D31/08/2026EmelecLeones del Norte
EmelecLeones del Norte21
W24/08/2026
LDU de QuitoEmelec
LDU de QuitoEmelec20
LReferee Profile
4.58Cards per match
4.17Yellow cards per match
0.42Red cards per match
21.8Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.58 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.81).
Cards come from 12 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Liga Pro: Regular season
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | +40 | 74 | WWDLW |
| 2 |  Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 51 | DLDWL |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | +8 | 51 | DWWWW |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | +5 | 50 | LWLDL |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | +7 | 46 | DLLDW |
| 6 |  Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | +7 | 44 | DLWLL |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | -1 | 41 | LDLWW |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 39 | DWWLL |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | -3 | 39 | DDWLW |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 11 |  Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 | WLLDL |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 36 | WLWWD |
| 13 |  Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | -11 | 33 | LDWDD |
| 14 |  Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | -14 | 32 | LDWLL |
| 15 |  Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | -12 | 28 | LWLWW |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | -25 | 21 | WWLLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17:42 | 21 |
Liga Pro: Placement Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 43:40 | +3 | 51 | LDLWW |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 39:44 | -5 | 48 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 36 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 40:41 | -1 | 47 | DWWLL |
| 10 | Emelec | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 32:43 | -11 | 45 | WLLWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 36 | 43:40 | 51 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 36 | 39:44 | 48 |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 36 | 40:41 | 47 |
| 10 | Emelec | 36 | 32:43 | 45 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga Pro matches
- Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito 01/11/26
- Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad 01/11/26
- Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario 02/11/26
- Mushuc Runa SC vs Manta FC 03/11/26
- Macara vs Universidad Catolica 08/11/26
- Deportivo Cuenca vs Orense SC 08/11/26
- Aucas vs Independiente del Valle 08/11/26
- Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito 08/11/26
About the Libertad vs Emelec forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Libertad and Emelec in the Liga Pro table
In the Liga Pro table, Libertad are 7th and Emelec 10th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Libertad 33-34, Emelec 25-34. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.