Aucas vs Independiente del Valle Prediction

Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito·Yerson Zambrano 08/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.17
SignalHIGHModel45%SurpriseMediumGap-7.3%
Aucas Rest
7 days
Independiente del Valle Rest
2 days

Aucas vs Independiente del Valle: result, form and history

Independiente del Valle beat Aucas 4-2 in the Liga Pro on 8 Nov 2026. It was in line with recent form: Independiente del Valle had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Aucas.

Independiente del Valle have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.7 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
24%3.51
X
32%2.96
2
44%2.13
Double Chance
1X
56%1.60
X2
75%1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%2.05
No
53%1.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.94 + 1.53 = 2.47
Over 1.5
66%1.47
Over 2.5
41%2.48
Over 3.5
22%4.70
Under 1.5
34%2.55
Under 2.5
59%1.50
Under 3.5
78%1.17
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

15'Mateo CarabajalAssist: Junior Sornoza
37'Carlos GonzálezAssist: Junior Sornoza
41'Santiago MoralesAssist: Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo
45'Junior Sornoza
45'Rafael Monti Azpiazú INMichael Carcelen out
45'Ariel García INLuis Arroyo out
62'Junior SornozaAssist: Ronald Briones
69'Ronald Briones INJhegson Mendez Carabali out
69'Aron Rodríguez INJesús Adrian Carabalí Yubi out
69'Junior Sornoza INYouri Ochoa out
74'B. Oyola INCristhoper Zambrano out
79'Agostino SpinaFoul
80'Yandri Vásquez INKelvin Jeremía Montaño Arroyo out
80'Carlos González INDjorkaeff Reascos out
82'Luis GustavinoFoul
85'Jhegson Mendez CarabaliArgument
90+2'Michael CarcelenAssist: Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo

Lineups

Aucas
4-1-4-1Coach: N. Araujo
Independiente del Valle
4-1-4-1Coach: Joaquín Papa
Avg rating6.29
Avg rating6.91
I. Chaves5.51I. Chaves
A. Zova6.137A. Zova
L. Gustavino5.216L. Gustavino
S. Morales7.12S. Morales
A. Garcia5.763A. Garcia
Thiago6.65Thiago
B. Oyola5.830B. Oyola
P. Guzmán8.221P. Guzmán
A. Spina6.36A. Spina
R. Quiñónez5.928R. Quiñónez
R. Monti Azpiazu6.29R. Monti Azpiazu
A. Quintana7.01A. Quintana
Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla6.613D. Alejandro Romero Padilla
M. Carabajal7.814M. Carabajal
R. Schunke7.05R. Schunke
L. Loor6.719L. Loor
J. Alcívar6.86J. Alcívar
Y. Vásquez6.552Y. Vásquez
R. Briones7.616R. Briones
J. Sornoza9.410J. Sornoza
A. Rodríguez6.417A. Rodríguez
C. González8.09C. González

Aucas Substitutes

11A. Bolaños
7J. Andrade
29Luis Aldair Arroyo Cabeza45'for Ariel García6.5
31B. Carabalí
34M. Carcelén45'for Rafael Monti Azpiazú90+2'6.4
20D. Espinosa
13Hamilton Emanuel Piedra Ordóñez
17C. Zambrano74'for B. Oyola6.5

Independiente del Valle Substitutes

22G. Villar
23Juan Viacava
33Andy René Velasco García
99D. Reasco80'for Carlos González6.5
55Hans Stalin Peralta Montezuma
8Y. Ochoa69'for Junior Sornoza5.9
32J. Méndez69'for Ronald Briones85'6.3
51Kelvin Jeremía Montaño Arroyo80'replaced by Yandri Vásquez
20A. Gómez
4J. Espinoza
15G. Cortéz
50Jesús Adrian Carabalí Yubi69'replaced by Aron Rodríguez

Match Stats

AucasIndependiente del Valle
36%Ball Possession64%
7Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards1
13Total Shots13
6Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal6
7Shots Inside Box9
6Shots Outside Box4
1Blocked Shots3
12Fouls4
1Offsides0
0Goalkeeper Saves4
323Total Passes613
281Passes Accurate569
4Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

AucasAucas
Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
1560Elo Rating 1812
1.04Attack 1.58
1.01Defense 2.86
27%Hit Rate 69%
10.7Shots per Game 15.6
2.9Shots on Target 5.5
4.7Corners per Game 5.8
1.7Cards per Game 0.8

Game State Tendencies

AucasAucas
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.2 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

AucasAucas1Wins · 10%
Draws220%
Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle7Wins · 70%
2.7Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Liga Pro10/10/2026
Independiente del ValleAucas
21
Liga Pro16/07/2026
AucasIndependiente del Valle
03
Liga Pro14/03/2026
Independiente del ValleAucas
22
Liga Pro19/07/2025
Independiente del ValleAucas
21
Liga Pro28/03/2025
AucasIndependiente del Valle
12
Liga Pro01/09/2024
AucasIndependiente del Valle
02
Liga Pro25/03/2024
Independiente del ValleAucas
11
Liga Pro12/11/2023
AucasIndependiente del Valle
20
Liga Pro03/06/2023
Independiente del ValleAucas
20
Supercopa de Ecuador11/02/2023
Independiente del ValleAucas
30

Recent Form

AucasAucas
2W4D4L
01/11/2026
Universidad CatolicaAucas
12
W
25/10/2026
AucasBarcelona SC
04
L
17/10/2026
AucasLDU de Quito
11
D
10/10/2026
Independiente del ValleAucas
21
L
19/09/2026
AucasMacara
12
L
12/09/2026
Manta FCAucas
00
D
07/09/2026
AucasBarcelona SC
11
D
03/09/2026
Universidad CatolicaAucas
11
D
30/08/2026
AucasLibertad
10
W
27/08/2026
LDU de QuitoAucas
10
L

Referee Profile

Yerson Zambrano78 matches

5.11Cards per match
4.70Yellow cards per match
0.41Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Yerson Zambrano5.11
Other referees5.03

5.11 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.03).

Cards come from 70 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga Pro 2026

Liga Pro: Regular season

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle30242473:33+4074WWDLW
2Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica30149751:27+2451DLDWL
3MacaraMacara30156941:33+851DWWWW
4AucasAucas30148833:28+550LWLDL
5LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito301371031:24+746DLLDW
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC301111832:25+744DLWLL
7LibertadLibertad301181133:34-141LDLWW
8Leones del NorteLeones del Norte301091131:32-139DWWLL
9Guayaquil City FCGuayaquil City FC301091133:36-339DDWLW
10EmelecEmelec301091125:34-939WLLWL
11Mushuc Runa SCMushuc Runa SC309111035:38-338WLLDL
12Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca301061425:37-1236WLWWD
13Orense SCOrense SC30961536:47-1133LDWDD
14Tecnico UniversitarioTecnico Universitario301021828:42-1432LDWLL
15Delfin SCDelfin SC30771619:31-1228LWLWW
16Manta FCManta FC30561917:42-2521WWLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle3073:3374
2Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica3051:2751
3MacaraMacara3041:3351
4AucasAucas3033:2850
5LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito3031:2446
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC3032:2544
7LibertadLibertad3033:3441
8Leones del NorteLeones del Norte3031:3239
9Guayaquil City FCGuayaquil City FC3033:3639
10EmelecEmelec3025:3439
11Mushuc Runa SCMushuc Runa SC3035:3838
12Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca3025:3736
13Orense SCOrense SC3036:4733
14Tecnico UniversitarioTecnico Universitario3028:4232
15Delfin SCDelfin SC3019:3128
16Manta FCManta FC3017:4221

Liga Pro: Championship Group

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle35273581:37+4484WWDLW
2MacaraMacara36207952:37+1567DWWWW
3Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica3614121056:35+2154DLDWL
4LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito361591238:32+654DLLDW
5AucasAucas361591240:42-254LWLDL
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC3512131039:32+749DLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle3581:3784
2MacaraMacara3652:3767
3Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica3656:3554
4LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito3638:3254
5AucasAucas3640:4254
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC3539:3249
PromotionRelegation

About the Aucas vs Independiente del Valle forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Aucas and Independiente del Valle in the Liga Pro table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Independiente del Valle are 1st in the Liga Pro, 24 points ahead of Aucas in 4th. League goal record so far: Aucas 33-28, Independiente del Valle 73-33. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.