Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito Prediction
Ecuador · Championship Group - 5
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.21
SignalHIGHModel56%SurpriseMediumGap-2.7%
Independiente del Valle Rest
3 days
LDU de Quito Rest
2 days
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito: the result in context
Independiente del Valle beat LDU de Quito 2-0 in the Liga Pro on 1 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
153%1.78
X25%3.55
222%3.91
Double Chance
1X78%1.21
X246%1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes54%1.68
No46%2.01
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.62 + 0.94 = 2.56
Over 1.574%1.23
Over 2.551%1.79
Over 3.531%2.88
Under 1.526%3.73
Under 2.549%1.97
Under 3.569%1.36
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
45'Junior Sornoza INHugo Quintana out
52'Hugo Quintana INYouri Ochoa out
55'Leonel Quinonez INJose Carabali out
55'Lucas Rodriguez INAlexander Alvarado out
67'Steven Daniel Góngora PalaciosAssist: Carlos González
69'Carlos González
71'Jesús PretellFoul
72'Michael Estrada INDeyverson out
73'Janner Corozo INElvis Kevin Velasco Chere out
74'Yandri Vásquez INAron Rodríguez out
78'Penalty cancelledDeyverson
80'Marcelo Weigandt INJosué William·Cuero Mercado out
88'Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios INJhegson Mendez Carabali out
88'Gustavo Orlando Cortez INJuan Viacava out
90+3'Gian Franco AllalaFoul
Lineups
Independiente del ValleLDU de Quito
3-4-1-2Coach: Gustavo ÁlvarezAvg ratingAvg rating
1A. Quintana
13D. Alejandro Romero Padilla
14M. Carabajal
5R. Schunke
15G. Cortéz
16R. Briones
6J. Alcívar
10J. Sornoza
52Y. Vásquez
9C. González1818S. Daniel Góngora Palacios
1G. Valle
30G. Allala
44L. Segovia
33L. Enrique Quiñónez Padilla
57M. Weigandt
8J. Pretell
20F. Cornejo
23Y. Quinonez
7L. Rodríguez
13J. Corozo
11M. EstradaIndependiente del Valle Substitutes
4J. Espinoza
50J. Cuero
19L. Loor
51Kelvin Jeremía Montaño Arroyo
32J. Méndez88'replaced by Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
8Y. Ochoa52'replaced by Hugo Quintana
70M. Peralta
28H. Quintana45'for Junior Sornoza52'for Youri Ochoa
99D. Reasco
17A. Rodríguez74'for Yandri Vásquez
33Andy René Velasco García
23Juan Viacava88'replaced by Gustavo Orlando Cortez
LDU de Quito Substitutes
31J. RodrÃguez
18Washington Nahir Olvera Zambrano
3Richard Alexander Mina Caicedo
5Sebastían González Baquero
22Alexander Domínguez Carabalí
28J. Cuero80'for Marcelo Weigandt
67J. Carabalí55'for Leonel Quinonez
16Deyverson72'for Michael Estrada
10Alexander Antonio Alvarado Carriel55'for Lucas Rodriguez
4Ricardo Ade
77K. Velasco73'for Janner Corozo
26I. Zambrano
Match Stats
Independiente del ValleLDU de Quito 53%Ball Possession47%
4Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards2
18Total Shots13
7Shots on Goal1
8Shots off Goal10
8Shots Inside Box6
10Shots Outside Box7
3Blocked Shots2
7Fouls17
1Offsides3
1Goalkeeper Saves4
341Total Passes302
292Passes Accurate240
16Free Kicks6
Team Comparison
Independiente del ValleLDU de Quito1812Elo Rating 1640
1.58Attack 0.97
2.86Defense 1.14
69%Hit Rate 0%
15.6Shots per Game 13.6
5.5Shots on Target 3.1
5.8Corners per Game 4.5
0.8Cards per Game 0.9
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+172 Elo
Game State Tendencies
Independiente del Valle- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.2 in first half)
LDU de Quito- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.1 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Independiente del Valle2Wins · 20%Draws440%
LDU de Quito4Wins · 40%
4Wins · 40%2.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10
Previous meetings
08/08/2026LDU de QuitoIndependiente del Valle02
19/04/2026Independiente del ValleLDU de Quito02
10/12/2025Independiente del ValleLDU de Quito00
29/11/2025LDU de QuitoIndependiente del Valle21
22/06/2025LDU de QuitoIndependiente del Valle11
23/02/2025Independiente del ValleLDU de Quito11
14/12/2024Independiente del ValleLDU de Quito10
07/12/2024LDU de QuitoIndependiente del Valle30
09/11/2024LDU de QuitoIndependiente del Valle21
19/05/2024Independiente del ValleLDU de Quito11
Recent Form
Independiente del Valle5W2D3L
29/10/2026
Delfin SCIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
MacaraIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
AucasIndependiente del Valle
FlamengoIndependiente del ValleMacara
Barcelona SCIndependiente del Valle
Delfin SCIndependiente del Valle03
W23/10/2026Independiente del ValleUniversidad Catolica00
D17/10/2026MacaraIndependiente del Valle10
L10/10/2026Independiente del ValleAucas21
W25/09/2026
Gualaceo SCIndependiente del Valle
Gualaceo SCIndependiente del Valle02
W18/09/2026FlamengoIndependiente del Valle
FlamengoIndependiente del Valle11
D14/09/2026
LibertadIndependiente del Valle
11/09/2026LibertadIndependiente del Valle23
WIndependiente del ValleFlamengo02
L06/09/2026Independiente del ValleMacara31
W03/09/2026Barcelona SCIndependiente del Valle21
LLDU de Quito3W4D3L
30/10/2026Universidad CatolicaLDU de Quito
24/10/2026Universidad CatolicaLDU de Quito22
DLDU de QuitoMacara12
L17/10/2026AucasLDU de Quito11
D11/10/2026LDU de QuitoBarcelona SC21
W21/09/2026LDU de QuitoUniversidad Catolica21
W17/09/2026LDU de Quito
Palmeiras3342
L13/09/2026LDU de Quito
Deportivo Cuenca11
D10/09/2026PalmeirasLDU de Quito10
L05/09/2026
Tecnico UniversitarioLDU de Quito
02/09/2026Tecnico UniversitarioLDU de Quito13
WLDU de Quito
Mushuc Runa SC00
DReferee Profile
5.35Cards per match
5.00Yellow cards per match
0.35Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.35 cards a match, 0.25 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.10).
Cards come from 74 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Liga Pro: Regular season
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | +40 | 74 | WWDLW |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 51 | DLDWL |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | +8 | 51 | DWWWW |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | +5 | 50 | LWLDL |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | +7 | 46 | DLLDW |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | +7 | 44 | DLWLL |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | -1 | 41 | LDLWW |
| 8 |  Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 39 | DWWLL |
| 9 |  Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | -3 | 39 | DDWLW |
| 10 |  Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 | WLLDL |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 36 | WLWWD |
| 13 |  Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | -11 | 33 | LDWDD |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | -14 | 32 | LDWLL |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | -12 | 28 | LWLWW |
| 16 |  Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | -25 | 21 | WWLLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17:42 | 21 |
Liga Pro: Championship Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 35 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 81:37 | +44 | 84 | WWDLW |
| 2 | Macara | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 52:37 | +15 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 36 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 56:35 | +21 | 54 | DLDWL |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 38:32 | +6 | 54 | DLLDW |
| 5 | Aucas | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 40:42 | -2 | 54 | LWLDL |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 39:32 | +7 | 49 | DLWLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 35 | 81:37 | 84 |
| 2 | Macara | 36 | 52:37 | 67 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 36 | 56:35 | 54 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 36 | 38:32 | 54 |
| 5 | Aucas | 36 | 40:42 | 54 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 35 | 39:32 | 49 |
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About the Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito forecast
The forecasts for this Liga Pro match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito in the Liga Pro table
In the Liga Pro table, Independiente del Valle are 1st and LDU de Quito 5th, 28 points apart. League goal record so far: Independiente del Valle 73-33, LDU de Quito 31-24. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.