Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas Prediction

Allianz Field, Saint Paul· Ricardo Fierro, USA 10/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
68%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.54
SignalGOODModel49%RiskMediumGap+3.4%
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.59
SignalHIGHModel69%RiskMediumGap+6.8%
Minnesota United FC Rest
3 days
FC Dallas Rest
4 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%1.91
X
23%3.75
2
24%3.54
Double Chance
1X
76%1.29
X2
47%1.83
Both Teams to Score
Yes
70%1.50
No
30%2.46
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.77 + 1.24 = 3.01
Over 1.5
89%1.17
Over 2.5
67%1.54
Over 3.5
43%2.38
Under 1.5
11%5.00
Under 2.5
33%2.39
Under 3.5
57%1.57
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.4 = 9.6
Over 8.5
59%1.42
Over 9.5
48%1.69
Over 10.5
34%2.10
Under 8.5
41%2.69
Under 9.5
52%2.08
Under 10.5
66%1.67
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2 = 4.1
Over 3.5
58%1.62
Over 4.5
38%2.25
Under 3.5
42%2.20
Under 4.5
62%1.58

Match Events

7'Osaze UrhoghideFoul
62'Kaick da Silva FerreiraAssist: Joaquín Valiente Cioli
63'Marcus Caldeira INTomás Chancalay out
63'Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleño INCarlos Harvey out
69'Nectarios TriantisFoul
73'Kelvin Yeboah
74'Kelvin Yeboah INMaurice Malone out
74'Nectarios Triantis INOwen Gene out
77'Christian Cappis INSantiago Moreno out
77'Ran Binyamin INHerman Johansson out
83'RamiroFoul
84'Logan Farrington INSamuel Sarver out
84'Wil Trapp INMauricio González Carabalí out
84'Santiago MorenoAssist: Samuel Sarver
89'Owen GeneFoul

Lineups

Minnesota United FC
3-4-1-2Coach: C. Knowles
FC Dallas
5-4-1Coach: Eric Quill
D. Callender12D. CallenderD. Callender
J. Díaz28J. DíazJ. Díaz
M. Boxall15M. BoxallM. Boxall
M. Duggan23M. DugganM. Duggan
K. Duncan3K. DuncanK. Duncan
N. Triantis25N. TriantisN. Triantis
W. Trapp20W. TrappW. Trapp
A. Markanich13A. MarkanichA. Markanich
J. Pereyra26J. PereyraJ. Pereyra
Marcus Caldeira22M. CaldeiraMarcus Caldeira
K. Yeboah9K. YeboahK. Yeboah
J. Sirois40J. SiroisJ. Sirois
R. Binyamin6R. BinyaminR. Binyamin
S. Moore18S. MooreS. Moore
S. Ibeagha25S. IbeaghaS. Ibeagha
O. Urhoghide3O. UrhoghideO. Urhoghide
B. Kamungo77B. KamungoB. Kamungo
J. Valiente21J. ValienteJ. Valiente
Ramiro17RamiroRamiro
Kaick55KaickKaick
C. Cappis12C. CappisC. Cappis
L. Farrington23L. FarringtonL. Farrington

Minnesota United FC Substitutes

8T. ChancalayF
33K. ChandlerD
30O. GeneM
18M. GonzalezF
67C. HarveyM
16A. JacksonM
11M. MaloneF
5N. RomeroD
1A. SmirG

FC Dallas Substitutes

28Samuel SarverF
32N. NorrisD
10S. MorenoF
14H. JohanssonM
33C. HolstadM
8P. DelgadoM
30Michael CollodiG
5L. AbubakarD
24Joshua TorquatoD

Match Stats

Minnesota United FCFC Dallas
52%Ball Possession48%
2Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards2
9Total Shots13
2Shots on Goal6
5Shots off Goal5
8Shots Inside Box10
1Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots2
13Fouls21
2Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves1
479Total Passes448
379Passes Accurate349
21Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC
FC DallasFC Dallas
1565Elo Rating 1693
2.75Attack 2.27
0.00Defense 0.72
14%Hit Rate 69%
13.1Shots per Game 9.2
5.3Shots on Target 5.0
4.1Corners per Game 4.3
1.9Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

High Goal Expectancy3.01 goals
📈BTTS Trend54% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
FC DallasFC Dallas
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Minnesota United FC 50%Draw 34%17% FC Dallas
2.56Avg Goals
54%BTTS Rate
39%Over 2.5

Referee Profile

Ricardo Fierro, USA · 19 matches analysed

4.3Avg Yellows
4.5Avg Cards
26.4Avg Fouls
Stricter than 46% of referees analysed

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps25154656:23+3349WLWLW
2Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo26135834:30+444DLWDD
3St. Louis CitySt. Louis City26128645:36+944WWDWD
4FC DallasFC Dallas26128649:42+744DWWWD
5San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes26126846:38+842DWWDD
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC27118843:29+1441DLWDD
7Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids261131236:35+136DWDLW
8Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy27891034:42-833WDLWL
9Portland TimbersPortland Timbers26951247:48-132LLDWL
10San DiegoSan Diego26871144:44031DLLLW
11AustinAustin26791032:44-1230DWDDW
12Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake25851237:42-529LLLDL
13Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders2478928:33-529DDDDD
14Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC26781139:46-729LLLLD
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City25531729:63-3418LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps2556:2349
2Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo2634:3044
3St. Louis CitySt. Louis City2645:3644
4FC DallasFC Dallas2649:4244
5San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes2646:3842
6Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC2743:2941
7Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids2636:3536
8Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy2734:4233
9Portland TimbersPortland Timbers2647:4832
10San DiegoSan Diego2644:4431
11AustinAustin2632:4430
12Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake2537:4229
13Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders2428:3329
14Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC2639:4629
15Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City2529:6318
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Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Major League Soccer fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

Minnesota United FC and FC Dallas have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.56 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.