Palermo vs Padova Prediction

Serie BItaly Italy · Regular Season - 5
Palermo
2-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Padova
Renzo Barbera, Palermo·Marco Di Bello 19/09/2026
PalermoPalermo
2-1
Finished
PadovaPadova

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.54
SignalSOLIDModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+2.4%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.54
SignalGOODModel70%SurpriseMediumGap+6.6%
Palermo Rest
5 days
Padova Rest
7 days

Palermo vs Padova: the result in context

Palermo beat Padova 2-1 in the Serie B on 19 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Palermo had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Padova.

Palermo have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 previous meetings, which averaged 1.0 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
69%1.54
X
22%4.10
2
9%5.59
Double Chance
1X
91%1.14
X2
32%2.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.70
No
47%2.01
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.9 + 0.83 = 2.73
Over 1.5
81%1.20
Over 2.5
56%1.67
Over 3.5
33%2.63
Under 1.5
19%4.29
Under 2.5
44%2.17
Under 3.5
67%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4.1 = 9.9
Over 8.5
63%1.36
Over 9.5
54%1.64
Over 10.5
41%2.05
Under 8.5
37%2.78
Under 9.5
46%2.10
Under 10.5
59%1.68
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.2 = 3.9
Over 3.5
56%1.37
Over 4.5
36%1.67
Under 3.5
44%2.95
Under 4.5
64%2.10

Match Events

7'Christian PastinaAssist: Matteo Cocchi
9'Goal confirmedChristian Pastina
42'Niccolo PierozziFoul
44'Dominic VavassoriAssist: Dennis Johnsen
45'Niccolo Pierozzi INTommaso Cassandro out
45'Mattia Bani INGiangiacomo Magnani out
53'Alexander Seghetti INFrancesco Di Mariano out
61'Matteo CocchiFoul
66'Filippo·RanocchiaFoul
67'Filippo·Ranocchia INNahuel Estévez out
69'Matteo Cocchi INLorenzo Carissoni out
69'Luca Moro INKevin Lasagna out
76'Jacopo Segre INClaudio Gomes out
82'Joel Pohjanpalo INAlessandro Gabrielloni out
83'Dominic VavassoriAssist: Dennis Johnsen
84'Giovanni·Giunti INNicolas Galazzi out
84'Emanuele Zuelli INMattia Bortolussi out
90+1'Lorenzo Carissoni

Lineups

Palermo
4-2-3-1Coach: F. Inzaghi
Padova
3-5-2Coach: N. Calabro
Avg rating6.83
Avg rating6.34
M. Fortin6.914M. Fortin
N. Pierozzi6.027N. Pierozzi
M. Bani6.913M. Bani
P. Ceccaroni6.732P. Ceccaroni
T. Augello6.73T. Augello
J. Segre6.18J. Segre
F. Ranocchia7.210F. Ranocchia
D. Vavassori8.99D. Vavassori
A. Palumbo6.55A. Palumbo
D. Johnsen8.517D. Johnsen
J. Pohjanpalo6.520J. Pohjanpalo
A. Sorrentino7.122A. Sorrentino
Alessandro Dellavalle6.527A. Dellavalle
M. Lovato6.25M. Lovato
C. Pastina7.458C. Pastina
A. Capelli5.817A. Capelli
G. Giunti6.46G. Giunti
E. Zuelli7.021E. Zuelli
P. Fusi6.98P. Fusi
M. Cocchi6.234M. Cocchi
A. Seghetti6.111A. Seghetti
L. Moro5.99L. Moro

Palermo Substitutes

29P. Peda
63N. Balagušs
12M. Nespola
36L. Mazzitelli
11E. Gyasi
6C. Gomes76'for Jacopo Segre6.2
99A. Gabrielloni82'for Joel Pohjanpalo6.4
96G. Magnani45'for Mattia Bani7.1
24N. Estévez67'for Filippo·Ranocchia6.3
84T. Cassandro45'for Niccolo Pierozzi6.3
33A. Bozzolan
93F. Barba

Padova Substitutes

14M. Pompetti
1L. Mouquet
15K. Lasagna69'for Luca Moro6.6
25N. Galazzi84'for Giovanni·Giunti6.0
72C. Faedo
23F. Di Mariano53'for Alexander Seghetti6.1
24L. Carissoni69'for Matteo Cocchi90+1'5.1
10G. Caprari
20M. Bortolussi84'for Emanuele Zuelli6.3
32F. Sgarbi
18E. Silletti
7K. Varas

Match Stats

PalermoPadova
53%Ball Possession47%
7Corner Kicks11
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
22Total Shots20
8Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal8
15Shots Inside Box12
7Shots Outside Box8
9Blocked Shots7
10Fouls12
0Offsides5
4Goalkeeper Saves5
401Total Passes350
313Passes Accurate273
12Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

PalermoPalermo
PadovaPadova
1769Elo Rating 1555
2.15Attack 1.09
1.75Defense 2.12
54%Hit Rate 42%
17.6Shots per Game 8.2
5.3Shots on Target 1.9
3.3Corners per Game 3.0
0.9Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+214 Elo
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

PalermoPalermo
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
PadovaPadova
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

PalermoPalermo4Wins · 100%
Draws00%
PadovaPadova0Wins · 0%
1.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 4
0%3+ goals0 of 4

Previous meetings

Serie B21/03/2026
PadovaPalermo
01
Serie B27/12/2025
PalermoPadova
10
Serie C - Girone A12/06/2022
PalermoPadova
10
Serie C - Girone A05/06/2022
PadovaPalermo
01

Recent Form

PalermoPalermo
6W3D1L
13/09/2026
AvellinoPalermo
11
D07/09/2026
PalermoSampdoria
31
W03/09/2026
PalermoMantova
52
W
30/08/2026
ArezzoPalermo
23
W
23/08/2026
PalermoJuve Stabia
10
W
17/08/2026
PalermoLecce
20
W
11/08/2026
JuventusPalermo
20
L
07/08/2026
Melbourne CityPalermo
02
W
29/07/2026
PalermoIraklis 1908
11
D
25/07/2026
Palermo1. FC Nürnberg
22
D
PadovaPadova
4W2D4L
12/09/2026
PadovaAscoli
10
W
06/09/2026
CremonesePadova
31
L
29/08/2026
PadovaHellas Verona
11
D
23/08/2026
PisaPadova
01
W15/08/2026
UdinesePadova
10
L
07/08/2026
MonzaPadova
33
D
01/08/2026
CittadellaPadova
02
W
25/07/2026
PadovaOspitaletto
13
L
22/07/2026
SassuoloPadova
41
L
08/05/2026
CesenaPadova
34
W

Referee Profile

Marco Di Bello150 matches

4.31Cards per match
4.12Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
26.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Marco Di Bello4.31
Other referees4.59

4.31 cards a match, 0.28 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.59).

Cards come from 141 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PalermoPalermo1183025:13+1227DWDWW
2ModenaModena1172220:10+1023WDWWL
3AscoliAscoli1155117:7+1020DDWWD
4MantovaMantova1154215:11+419DDLWL
5AvellinoAvellino1144316:11+516DWDLD
6BeneventoBenevento1144315:11+416DLDWD
7Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1144319:13+616DWWDD
8PisaPisa1144320:17+316DLDDW
9CremoneseCremonese1143414:12+215WWWLL
10PadovaPadova1143412:13-115DDWWL
11CesenaCesena1136212:14-215WDWLD
12SudtirolSudtirol1136213:12+115DDLDL
13Juve StabiaJuve Stabia1144312:11+112WDLWW
14ArezzoArezzo113269:20-1111LDLLW
15SampdoriaSampdoria1132611:18-711WWLDL
16Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella1124511:14-310LLDLW
17CarrareseCarrarese113179:14-510LLWLW
18Vicenza VirtusVicenza Virtus1123614:24-109LLLWD
19EmpoliEmpoli1123612:19-79DDLLD
20CatanzaroCatanzaro1113711:23-126LDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PalermoPalermo1125:1327
2ModenaModena1120:1023
3AscoliAscoli1117:720
4MantovaMantova1115:1119
5AvellinoAvellino1116:1116
6BeneventoBenevento1115:1116
7Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1119:1316
8PisaPisa1120:1716
9CremoneseCremonese1114:1215
10PadovaPadova1112:1315
11CesenaCesena1112:1415
12SudtirolSudtirol1113:1215
13Juve StabiaJuve Stabia1112:1112
14ArezzoArezzo119:2011
15SampdoriaSampdoria1111:1811
16Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella1111:1410
17CarrareseCarrarese119:1410
18Vicenza VirtusVicenza Virtus1114:249
19EmpoliEmpoli1112:199
20CatanzaroCatanzaro1111:236
PromotionRelegation

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About the Palermo vs Padova forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Palermo and Padova in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Palermo are 1st and Padova 10th, 12 points apart. League goal record so far: Palermo 25-13, Padova 12-13. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Padova have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.