Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction

Puebla
1-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Guadalajara Chivas
Estadio Cuauhtemoc, Puebla· Adonai Escobedo Gonzalez, Mexico 01/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 5.5
1.87
SignalGOODModel45%RiskMediumGap+9.0%
Puebla Rest
10 days
Guadalajara Chivas Rest
6 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
25%5.50
X
28%4.40
2
47%1.50
Double Chance
1X
53%2.45
X2
75%1.14
Both Teams to Score
Yes
76%1.70
No
24%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.35 + 1.59 = 2.94
Over 1.5
81%1.19
Over 2.5
62%1.62
Over 3.5
36%2.55
Under 1.5
19%4.50
Under 2.5
38%2.25
Under 3.5
64%1.48
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4.6 = 9.5
Over 8.5
60%1.48
Over 9.5
46%1.82
Over 10.5
32%2.27
Under 8.5
40%2.42
Under 9.5
54%1.89
Under 10.5
68%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.4 = 5
Over 3.5
73%1.38
Over 4.5
55%1.82
Under 3.5
27%2.60
Under 4.5
45%1.84

Match Events

26'E. Mustre
63'F. Gonzalez INE. Alvarez out
63'J. Carrillo INO. Govea out
63'R. AlvaradoAssist: E. Alvarez
71'E. Mustre INL. Hernandez out
71'A. Gonzalez INA. Sepulveda out
71'C. Baltazar INM. Tomas out
77'B. Gutierrez INK. Castaneda out
77'R. Ledezma INR. Marin out
79'A. Organista INO. Villa out
90+1'E. Gomez INO. F. Moreno Villegas out

Lineups

Puebla
4-2-3-1Coach: Gerardo Espinoza
Guadalajara Chivas
3-1-4-2Coach: Gabriel Milito
Daniel Gutierrez28D. GutierrezDaniel Gutierrez
Iker Moreno12I. MorenoIker Moreno
Facundo Almada5F. AlmadaFacundo Almada
Juan Pablo Vargas4J. Pablo VargasJuan Pablo Vargas
Fernando Monarrez7F. MonarrezFernando Monarrez
Alejandro Organista24A. OrganistaAlejandro Organista
Sergio Sanabria21S. SanabriaSergio Sanabria
Kevin Velasco26K. VelascoKevin Velasco
Carlos Baltazar22C. BaltazarCarlos Baltazar
Emiliano Gómez11E. GómezEmiliano Gómez
Eduardo Mustre29E. MustreEduardo Mustre
Raúl Rangel1R. RangelRaúl Rangel
Daniel Aguirre23D. AguirreDaniel Aguirre
Luis Romo7L. RomoLuis Romo
José Castillo2J. CastilloJosé Castillo
Fernando González28F. GonzálezFernando González
Richard Ledezma37R. LedezmaRichard Ledezma
Brian Gutiérrez11B. GutiérrezBrian Gutiérrez
Jordan Carrillo33J. CarrilloJordan Carrillo
Bryan González5B. GonzálezBryan González
Roberto Alvarado25R. AlvaradoRoberto Alvarado
Armando González34A. GonzálezArmando González

Puebla Substitutes

10Mathías TomásM
9Luifer HernándezF
15Óscar VillaD
8Omar MorenoF
33Jesús RodríguezG
2Angel LeyvaD
3Alberto HerreraM
34Lucas CamiloM
16Alonso RamirezM
27Brayan GarnicaF

Guadalajara Chivas Substitutes

6Omar GoveaM
10Efrain AlvarezF
9Ángel SepúlvedaF
19Kevin CastañedaM
17Ricardo MarínF
13Óscar WhalleyG
3Diego CampilloD
24Miguel GómezD
18Jonathan PerezM
16Luis Gabriel ReyD

Match Stats

PueblaGuadalajara Chivas
35%Ball Possession65%
1Corner Kicks7
7Total Shots24
3Shots on Goal9
3Shots off Goal14
1Shots Inside Box16
6Shots Outside Box8
1Blocked Shots1
7Fouls12
7Goalkeeper Saves2
351Total Passes649
287Passes Accurate579
82%Pass Accuracy89%

Team Comparison

PueblaPuebla
Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
1512Elo Rating 1748
0.89Attack 2.66
1.89Defense 2.47
34%Hit Rate 81%
14.6Shots per Game 9.1
4.3Shots on Target 4.5
6.1Corners per Game 5.3
1.2Cards per Game 0.3

AI Insights

High Goal Expectancy2.94 goals
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

PueblaPuebla
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.1 in first half)
Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Puebla 17%Draw 0%83% Guadalajara Chivas
2.87Avg Goals
14%BTTS Rate
41%Over 2.5

Recent Form

PueblaPuebla
3W0D2L
22/07/2026
Cruz AzulPuebla
21
L
18/07/2026
FC JuarezPuebla
01
W
10/07/2026
AtlasPuebla
34
W
04/07/2026
CF PachucaPuebla
31
L
01/07/2026
PueblaTlaxcala
31
W
Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
1W2D2L
26/07/2026
Guadalajara ChivasFC Juarez
10
W
19/07/2026
Guadalajara ChivasToluca
02
L
04/07/2026
Correcaminos UatGuadalajara Chivas
00
D
17/05/2026
Guadalajara ChivasCruz Azul
12
L
14/05/2026
Cruz AzulGuadalajara Chivas
22
D

Referee Profile

Adonai Escobedo Gonzalez, Mexico · 33 matches analysed

4.6Avg Yellows
4.9Avg Cards
23.8Avg Fouls
Stricter than 67% of referees analysed

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1TolucaToluca961220:9+1119LWWWW
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas953117:8+918DWWDW
3Club AmericaClub America852117:8+917DLWWW
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul950416:15+115LWWWL
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro842211:8+314DWWLD
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana842212:10+214DLWLW
7LeonLeon942312:10+214DWLDW
8PueblaPuebla942311:11014DLWLW
9AtlasAtlas942313:15-214DLDLW
10MonterreyMonterrey841314:10+413WDLLW
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca933315:10+512DWWDD
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas933312:13-112DLWLD
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis923411:16-59WLLWD
14Atlante FCAtlante FC91538:13-58DLDDL
15NecaxaNecaxa922510:16-68LLDLD
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL91449:13-47LDDDW
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna92169:15-67WWLDL
18FC JuarezFC Juarez91086:23-173WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1TolucaToluca920:919
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas917:818
3Club AmericaClub America817:817
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul916:1515
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro811:814
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana812:1014
7LeonLeon912:1014
8PueblaPuebla911:1114
9AtlasAtlas913:1514
10MonterreyMonterrey814:1013
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca915:1012
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas912:1312
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis911:169
14Atlante FCAtlante FC98:138
15NecaxaNecaxa910:168
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL99:137
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna99:157
18FC JuarezFC Juarez96:233
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Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Liga MX fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

Guadalajara Chivas have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Puebla and Guadalajara Chivas have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.87 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.