Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction

Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian·Miguel Sesma Espinosa 11/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
59%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.62
SignalNEUTRALModel60%SurpriseMediumGap-2.9%
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.48
SignalGOODModel71%SurpriseMediumGap+7.0%
Real Sociedad Rest
20 days
Deportivo La Coruna Rest
8 days

Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna: the result in context

Real Sociedad beat Deportivo La Coruna 3-2 in the La Liga on 11 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
57%1.62
X
24%4.05
2
19%5.50
Double Chance
1X
81%1.16
X2
43%2.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.75
No
46%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.56 + 1.14 = 2.70
Over 1.5
76%1.22
Over 2.5
53%1.74
Over 3.5
33%2.75
Under 1.5
24%3.90
Under 2.5
47%2.10
Under 3.5
67%1.42
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 4 = 9.9
Over 8.5
61%1.45
Over 9.5
51%1.80
Over 10.5
41%2.27
Under 8.5
39%2.54
Under 9.5
49%1.97
Under 10.5
59%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.1 = 4
Over 3.5
57%1.64
Over 4.5
37%2.20
Under 3.5
43%2.19
Under 4.5
63%1.62

Match Events

29'Jon MartinAssist: Carlos Soler
34'Arsen Zakharyan
40'David MellaHandball
45'David Mella INRiki Rodríguez out
54'Gonçalo GuedesAssist: Ander Barrenetxea
56'Gonçalo Guedes INJob Ochieng out
56'Arsen Zakharyan INMikel Oyarzabal out
57'Ximo Navarro INAdria Altimira out
57'Diego Villares INLorenzo Amatucci out
57'Luismi Cruz INAdama Traoré out
61'Mario SorianoAssist: Riki Rodríguez
66'Pablo Marin
69'Yeremay Hernández(Penalty)
69'Carlos Soler INIgor Zubeldia out
71'José María GiménezFoul
79'Giacomo Quagliata INJonathan Asp Jensen out
88'Ander Barrenetxea INHector Fort out
90'Lorenzo Amatucci
90+4'Yangel HerreraFoul

Lineups

Real Sociedad
4-4-2Coach: P. Matarazzo
Deportivo La Coruna
4-4-2Coach: Antonio Hidalgo
Avg rating6.73
Avg rating6.37
Álex Remiro6.81Á. Remiro
Pablo Marín5.815P. Marín
Jon Martín7.56J. Martín
M. Sarr6.819M. Sarr
Sergio Gómez6.417S. Gómez
Barrenetxea7.17Barrenetxea
Y. Herrera6.721Y. Herrera
Carlos Soler7.018C. Soler
Gonçalo Guedes7.111G. Guedes
L. Sučić6.424L. Sučić
A. Zakharyan7.723A. Zakharyan
Leo Román5.613L. Román
Ximo Navarro6.223X. Navarro
J. Giménez6.220J. Giménez
B. Ede6.622B. Ede
G. Quagliata5.912G. Quagliata
David Mella5.611D. Mella
Mario Soriano8.221M. Soriano
Diego Villares6.18D. Villares
Peke7.810Peke
Luismi Cruz6.519L. Cruz
B. Nsongo6.332B. Nsongo

Real Sociedad Substitutes

27Gorka Carrera
34Luken Beitia
22Héctor Fort88'for Ander Barrenetxea6.2
4Jon Gorrotxategi
14T. Kubo
13Unai Marrero
3Aihen Muñoz
12J. Ochieng56'for Gonçalo Guedes6.5
10Mikel Oyarzabal56'for Arsen Zakharyan6.5
16Jon Pacheco
8Beñat Turrientes
5Zubeldia69'for Carlos Soler6.3

Deportivo La Coruna Substitutes

2Adrià Alti57'for Ximo Navarro6.4
17Angeliño
18Jonathan Asp Jensen79'for Giacomo Quagliata5.8
37Noé
25Álvaro Fernández
15Miguel Loureiro
4L. Noubi
31Martín Ochoa
14Riki Rodríguez45'for David Mella6.5
24Adama Traoré57'for Luismi Cruz6.7
33Kevin Sánchez
16L. Amatucci57'for Diego Villares90'5.4

Match Stats

Real SociedadDeportivo La Coruna
40%Ball Possession60%
7Corner Kicks10
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards1
12Total Shots21
4Shots on Goal7
4Shots off Goal8
6Shots Inside Box14
6Shots Outside Box7
4Blocked Shots6
14Fouls13
4Offsides0
6Goalkeeper Saves1
347Total Passes515
285Passes Accurate443
82%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

Real SociedadReal Sociedad
Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna
1795Elo Rating 1699
2.80Attack 1.06
1.23Defense 1.54
63%Hit Rate 0%
15.1Shots per Game 15.1
5.1Shots on Target 5.2
5.4Corners per Game 6.9
1.9Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Real SociedadReal Sociedad
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0 in first half)

Referee Profile

Miguel Sesma Espinosa112 matches

4.52Cards per match
4.33Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
26.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Miguel Sesma Espinosa4.52
Other referees4.87

4.52 cards a match, 0.35 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.87).

Cards come from 67 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona990039:9+3027WWWWW
2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid971119:8+1122WWWWW
3Real MadridReal Madrid970223:9+1421WWLWW
4Real BetisReal Betis961216:14+219LWDWW
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad951317:17016WWWLW
6SevillaSevilla942314:16-214LDLWW
7AlavesAlaves932413:10+311LLDLL
8Celta VigoCelta Vigo925210:7+311WDWDD
9Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna925213:12+111DLDLD
10OsasunaOsasuna932410:18-811WLDLL
11LevanteLevante924315:17-210WDDLL
12VillarrealVillarreal923413:1309DLWWL
13Athletic ClubAthletic Club82338:9-19DDDDW
14Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano823312:17-59DDWLW
15GetafeGetafe92345:11-69DLWLD
16EspanyolEspanyol922511:12-18LDLLW
17Racing SantanderRacing Santander922513:25-128LDLLW
18ElcheElche914411:17-67DDWLD
19ValenciaValencia91356:15-96DDLWL
20MalagaMalaga90456:18-124LDLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona939:927
2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid919:822
3Real MadridReal Madrid923:921
4Real BetisReal Betis916:1419
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad917:1716
6SevillaSevilla914:1614
7AlavesAlaves913:1011
8Celta VigoCelta Vigo910:711
9Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna913:1211
10OsasunaOsasuna910:1811
11LevanteLevante915:1710
12VillarrealVillarreal913:139
13Athletic ClubAthletic Club88:99
14Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano812:179
15GetafeGetafe95:119
16EspanyolEspanyol911:128
17Racing SantanderRacing Santander913:258
18ElcheElche911:177
19ValenciaValencia96:156
20MalagaMalaga96:184
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna forecast

The forecasts for this La Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Real Sociedad and Deportivo La Coruna in the La Liga table

In the La Liga table, Real Sociedad are 5th and Deportivo La Coruna 9th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Real Sociedad 17-17, Deportivo La Coruna 13-12. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Real Sociedad have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Real Sociedad and Deportivo La Coruna have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.