Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

Anoeta, San Sebastian 13/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.66
SignalHIGHModel67%RiskMediumGap+6.7%
Real Sociedad Rest
5 days
Atletico Madrid Rest
4 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
25%3.20
X
29%3.60
2
46%2.16
Double Chance
1X
54%1.69
X2
75%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.50
No
48%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.22 + 1.29 = 2.51
Over 1.5
73%1.18
Over 2.5
46%1.62
Over 3.5
21%2.47
Under 1.5
27%4.75
Under 2.5
54%2.33
Under 3.5
79%1.51
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4.4 = 9.2
Over 8.5
51%1.47
Over 9.5
43%1.84
Over 10.5
33%2.30
Under 8.5
49%2.46
Under 9.5
57%1.92
Under 10.5
67%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2 = 4
Over 3.5
56%1.43
Over 4.5
37%1.83
Under 3.5
44%2.77
Under 4.5
63%1.83

Match Events

18'Yangel HerreraFoul
59'Alejandro Baena Rodríguez INJohnny Cardoso out
60'Marcos Llorente INJonathan David out
60'Lee Kang-In INKoke out
72'Pellegrino MatarazzoDissent
72'Ander Barrenetxea INJob Ochieng out
72'Gonçalo Guedes INTakefusa Kubo out
75'Johnny CardosoFoul
76'Ademola Lookman INArnau Ortiz out
78'Carlos Soler INJon Gorrotxategi out
78'Mikel OyarzabalTime wasting
79'Mikel Oyarzabal INOrri Steinn Óskarsson out
84'Alejandro Grimaldo(Penalty)
85'Yangel Herrera INArsen Zakharyan out
90'Jonathan DavidAssist: Alejandro Grimaldo
90+5'Giuliano Simeone BaldiniAssist: Dávid Hancko

Lineups

Real Sociedad
4-2-3-1Coach: P. Matarazzo
Atletico Madrid
3-4-2-1Coach: D. Simeone
Álex Remiro1Á. RemiroÁlex Remiro
J. Aramburu2J. AramburuJ. Aramburu
Luken Beitia34L. BeitiaLuken Beitia
M. Sarr19M. SarrM. Sarr
Sergio Gómez17S. GómezSergio Gómez
Y. Herrera21Y. HerreraY. Herrera
Carlos Soler18C. SolerCarlos Soler
Barrenetxea7BarrenetxeaBarrenetxea
L. Sučić24L. SučićL. Sučić
Gonçalo Guedes11G. GuedesGonçalo Guedes
Mikel Oyarzabal10M. OyarzabalMikel Oyarzabal
J. Oblak13J. OblakJ. Oblak
Marc Pubill18M. PubillMarc Pubill
C. Romero21C. RomeroC. Romero
D. Hancko17D. HanckoD. Hancko
G. Simeone20G. SimeoneG. Simeone
Marcos Llorente14M. LlorenteMarcos Llorente
M. Hjulmand23M. HjulmandM. Hjulmand
Álex Grimaldo22Á. GrimaldoÁlex Grimaldo
Lee Kang-In7L. Kang-InLee Kang-In
Álex Baena10Á. BaenaÁlex Baena
A. Lookman11A. LookmanA. Lookman

Real Sociedad Substitutes

4Jon GorrotxategiM
14T. KuboF
22Héctor FortD
29Alex GarciaF
13Unai MarreroG
3Aihen MuñozD
12J. OchiengF
16Jon PachecoD
8Beñat TurrientesM
23A. ZakharyanM
9O. ÓskarssonF
27Gorka CarreraF

Atletico Madrid Substitutes

5J. CardosoM
15J. DavidF
27J. DominguezD
25Salvador EsquivelG
6KokeM
24Robin Le NormandD
4Rodrigo MendozaM
1J. MussoG
16Arnau OrtizF
3O. VargasM
45Javier GilD
30Dani MartínezD

Match Stats

Real SociedadAtletico Madrid
54%Ball Possession46%
9Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards1
9Total Shots13
3Shots on Goal5
2Shots off Goal6
3Shots Inside Box9
6Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots2
13Fouls9
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves3
525Total Passes464
449Passes Accurate377
8Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

Real SociedadReal Sociedad
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
1747Elo Rating 1876
1.16Attack 1.82
1.00Defense 1.51
39%Hit Rate 44%
12.7Shots per Game 13.2
5.2Shots on Target 4.6
8.3Corners per Game 4.5
2.1Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend83% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

Real SociedadReal Sociedad
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona660028:6+2218WWWWW
2Real MadridReal Madrid650117:6+1115WWLWW
3Real BetisReal Betis65018:6+215WWWLW
4Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid641114:6+813WWLWD
5SevillaSevilla64119:6+313WWDLW
6AlavesAlaves631211:6+510LLWWD
7Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna62319:7+29LDWWD
8EspanyolEspanyol62139:7+27LWDLL
9Athletic ClubAthletic Club52127:6+17DWWLL
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander621311:16-57LWLWL
11Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano621310:15-57WLWLD
12Real SociedadReal Sociedad62136:11-57LWDWL
13OsasunaOsasuna62135:12-77LLLWW
14VillarrealVillarreal612310:11-15WLLLD
15LevanteLevante51227:9-25LDWDL
16GetafeGetafe61233:7-45LDDLW
17Celta VigoCelta Vigo60423:6-34DDDLL
18ValenciaValencia61142:10-84WLLLL
19MalagaMalaga60333:11-83LDDLD
20ElcheElche60248:16-82LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona628:618
2Real MadridReal Madrid617:615
3Real BetisReal Betis68:615
4Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid614:613
5SevillaSevilla69:613
6AlavesAlaves611:610
7Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna69:79
8EspanyolEspanyol69:77
9Athletic ClubAthletic Club57:67
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander611:167
11Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano610:157
12Real SociedadReal Sociedad66:117
13OsasunaOsasuna65:127
14VillarrealVillarreal610:115
15LevanteLevante57:95
16GetafeGetafe63:75
17Celta VigoCelta Vigo63:64
18ValenciaValencia62:104
19MalagaMalaga63:113
20ElcheElche68:162
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this La Liga fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About La Liga

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Key Factors for This Match

Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.56 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.