Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth Prediction

Real Sociedad
1-2
Finished
HT 0-2
Bournemouth
Anoeta, San Sebastian·P. Raczkowski 17/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.36
SignalHIGHModel52%SurpriseHighGap+4.3%
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.83
SignalSOLIDModel62%SurpriseHighGap+11.1%
Real Sociedad Rest
4 days
Bournemouth Rest
5 days

Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth: result, form and history

Bournemouth beat Real Sociedad 2-1 in the UEFA Europa League on 17 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee P. Raczkowski averages 5.19 cards a game, 0.88 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
14%3.00
X
32%3.60
2
54%2.25
Double Chance
1X
46%1.67
X2
86%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%1.53
No
37%2.37
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.33 + 1.63 = 2.96
Over 1.5
79%1.20
Over 2.5
57%1.67
Over 3.5
35%2.60
Under 1.5
21%4.50
Under 2.5
43%2.25
Under 3.5
65%1.47
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4.5 = 9.3
Over 8.5
59%1.32
Over 9.5
46%1.60
Over 10.5
36%2.00
Under 8.5
41%2.96
Under 9.5
54%2.20
Under 10.5
64%1.74
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2 = 4
Over 3.5
57%1.59
Over 4.5
38%1.83
Under 3.5
43%2.30
Under 4.5
62%1.83

Match Events

11'Justin KluivertAssist: Adrien Truffert
13'Goal confirmedJustin Kluivert
20'Rayan Vitor Simplício RochaAssist: Alex Scott
24'Benat TurrientesFoul
33'Ander BarrenetxeaFoul
42'Justin KluivertFoul
45'Hector Fort INGonçalo Guedes out
52'Adrien TruffertFoul
57'Sergio GómezAssist: Luken Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
58'Benat Turrientes INJon Gorrotxategi out
63'Adam Smith INBafode Diakite out
63'Tyler Adams INRyan Christie out
69'Bafode DiakiteFoul
71'Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha INBen Gannon-Doak out
71'Francisco Evanilson INÁlvaro Rodríguez out
73'Mikel Oyarzabal INLuka Sučić out
75'Orri Steinn ÓskarssonFoul
83'Justin Kluivert INDavid Brooks out
83'Ander Barrenetxea INTakefusa Kubo out
84'Yangel Herrera INArsen Zakharyan out

Lineups

Real Sociedad
4-4-2Coach: P. Matarazzo
Bournemouth
4-4-2Coach: M. Rose
Avg rating6.42
Avg rating6.62
Unai Marrero6.413U. Marrero
Luken Beitia6.534L. Beitia
Jon Martín6.76J. Martín
M. Sarr6.719M. Sarr
Sergio Gómez7.717S. Gómez
Héctor Fort6.122H. Fort
Beñat Turrientes6.68B. Turrientes
Y. Herrera6.421Y. Herrera
Barrenetxea6.17Barrenetxea
Mikel Oyarzabal5.510M. Oyarzabal
O. Óskarsson5.79O. Óskarsson
Đ. Petrović6.61Đ. Petrović
A. Smith6.715A. Smith
J. Hill6.85J. Hill
António Silva7.114A. Silva
A. Truffert5.93A. Truffert
Rayan7.237Rayan
A. Scott7.68A. Scott
T. Adams6.412T. Adams
M. Tavernier6.716M. Tavernier
Evanilson6.39Evanilson
J. Kluivert7.319J. Kluivert

Real Sociedad Substitutes

14T. Kubo83'for Ander Barrenetxea6.3
4Jon Gorrotxategi58'for Benat Turrientes6.3
29Alex Garcia
15Pablo Marín
3Aihen Muñoz
12J. Ochieng
16Jon Pacheco
1Álex Remiro
18Carlos Soler
24L. Sučić73'for Mikel Oyarzabal6.3
23A. Zakharyan84'for Yangel Herrera6.2
11Gonçalo Guedes45'for Hector Fort7.0

Bournemouth Substitutes

7D. Brooks83'for Justin Kluivert6.2
10R. Christie63'for Tyler Adams6.3
4L. Cook
18B. Diakité63'for Adam Smith69'5.9
20M. Di Gregorio
11B. Doak71'for Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha6.9
30Á. Rodríguez71'for Francisco Evanilson6.0
6J. Soler
27A. Tóth
55M. Allan

Match Stats

Real SociedadBournemouth
54%Ball Possession46%
10Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards3
16Total Shots11
5Shots on Goal3
6Shots off Goal6
6Shots Inside Box8
10Shots Outside Box3
5Blocked Shots2
14Fouls13
1Offsides4
1Goalkeeper Saves4
587Total Passes370
493Passes Accurate282
13Free Kicks14

Team Comparison

Real SociedadReal Sociedad
BournemouthBournemouth
1815Elo Rating 1966
2.59Attack 2.77
1.80Defense 2.73
50%Hit Rate 100%
15.1Shots per Game 16.1
5.4Shots on Target 6.6
4.8Corners per Game 6.3
2.5Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.96 goals
📈BTTS Trend
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Home Overperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

Real SociedadReal Sociedad
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.7 vs 0.9 in second half)
BournemouthBournemouth
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

Real SociedadReal Sociedad
3W1D6L
BournemouthBournemouth
4W4D2L
12/09/2026
BournemouthBrentford
22
D
08/09/2026
BournemouthLincoln
40
W
05/09/2026
NewcastleBournemouth
22
D
29/08/2026
BournemouthEverton
11
D
23/08/2026
Manchester CityBournemouth
21
L
15/08/2026
FSV Mainz 05Bournemouth
21
L
08/08/2026
Real BetisBournemouth
22
D
04/08/2026
BournemouthGenoa
101
W
30/07/2026
FC AugsburgBournemouth
25
W
24/07/2026
BournemouthFC St. Pauli
41
W

Referee Profile

P. Raczkowski221 matches

5.19Cards per match
4.99Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
24.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

P. Raczkowski5.19
Other referees4.31

5.19 cards a match, 0.88 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.31).

Cards come from 184 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Europa League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BenficaBenfica440013:3+1012WWWW
2BournemouthBournemouth440011:2+912WWWW
3Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC440011:3+812WWWW
4Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise431010:2+810WWDW
5JuventusJuventus431011:4+710WDWW
6Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus43104:1+310DWWW
7Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen43018:1+79LWWW
8BeşiktaşBeşiktaş421111:8+37LDWW
9Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb42115:4+17WLWD
10Levski SofiaLevski Sofia42114:3+17WWDL
11SunderlandSunderland42114:407LDWW
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen42118:9-17WWDL
13LyonLyon42116:7-17DLWW
14AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar42027:4+36LWWL
15AnderlechtAnderlecht42026:3+36WWLL
16OFIOFI42025:4+16WLLW
17RennesRennes41304:3+16DDWD
18Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia42026:7-16LLWW
19TorreenseTorreense42027:9-26WLLW
20Real SociedadReal Sociedad41219:4+55DWDL
21Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace41219:6+35DDLW
22Sparta PrahaSparta Praha41126:604LLDW
231899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim41126:604DWLL
24Sturm GrazSturm Graz41123:6-34LWLD
25CeljeCelje41125:9-44WDLL
26Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg41123:8-54LDLW
27Celta VigoCelta Vigo41034:6-23LWLL
28AC MilanAC Milan41034:7-33LLWL
29JagielloniaJagiellonia41034:7-33LLWL
30PlzenPlzen41033:7-43WLLL
31MarseilleMarseille41032:6-43WLLL
32CelticCeltic41036:11-53WLLL
33Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva40131:8-71LLLD
34LillestromLillestrom40132:10-81LLDL
35Lech PoznanLech Poznan40132:12-101LDLL
36Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia40044:14-100LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BenficaBenfica413:312
2BournemouthBournemouth411:212
3Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC411:312
4Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise410:210
5JuventusJuventus411:410
6Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus44:110
7Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen48:19
8BeşiktaşBeşiktaş411:87
9Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb45:47
10Levski SofiaLevski Sofia44:37
11SunderlandSunderland44:47
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen48:97
13LyonLyon46:77
14AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar47:46
15AnderlechtAnderlecht46:36
16OFIOFI45:46
17RennesRennes44:36
18Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia46:76
19TorreenseTorreense47:96
20Real SociedadReal Sociedad49:45
21Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace49:65
22Sparta PrahaSparta Praha46:64
231899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim46:64
24Sturm GrazSturm Graz43:64
25CeljeCelje45:94
26Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg43:84
27Celta VigoCelta Vigo44:63
28AC MilanAC Milan44:73
29JagielloniaJagiellonia44:73
30PlzenPlzen43:73
31MarseilleMarseille42:63
32CelticCeltic46:113
33Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva41:81
34LillestromLillestrom42:101
35Lech PoznanLech Poznan42:121
36Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia44:140
Europa League

About the Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth forecast

This is a UEFA Europa League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Real Sociedad and Bournemouth in the UEFA Europa League table

In the UEFA Europa League table, Bournemouth are 2nd and Real Sociedad 20th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Real Sociedad 9-4, Bournemouth 11-2. The full standings are on the UEFA Europa League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Real Sociedad have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Bournemouth have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Real Sociedad and Bournemouth have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.