Scotland vs Slovenia Prediction

Scotland
1-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Slovenia
Hampden Park Stadium, Glasgow·Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez 06/10/2026
ScotlandScotland
1-2
Finished
SloveniaSlovenia

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalSTRONGModel55%SurpriseMediumGap-3.5%
Scotland Rest
3 days
Slovenia Rest
3 days

Scotland vs Slovenia: result, form and history

Slovenia beat Scotland 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League on 6 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Meetings between them tend to be tight, with just 1.7 goals a game across 3 matches.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
54%1.80
X
28%3.30
2
18%4.80
Double Chance
1X
82%1.18
X2
46%2.02
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%2.16
No
57%1.63
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.66 + 0.91 = 2.57
Over 1.5
69%1.45
Over 2.5
44%2.42
Over 3.5
26%4.50
Under 1.5
31%2.62
Under 2.5
56%1.56
Under 3.5
74%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 3.7 = 9
Over 8.5
55%1.61
Over 9.5
45%2.04
Over 10.5
33%2.62
Under 8.5
45%2.18
Under 9.5
55%1.68
Under 10.5
67%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2 = 3.7
Over 3.5
51%1.55
Over 4.5
32%2.00
Under 3.5
49%2.39
Under 4.5
68%1.75

Match Events

30'Erik JanžaFoul
31'Ryan ChristieAssist: Oliver McBurnie
44'John McGinnFoul
54'David ZecFoul
56'Aljosa MatkoAssist: Danijel Sturm
66'Oliver McBurnie INKieron Bowie out
66'Stephen Welsh INAaron Hickey out
68'Luis BinksFoul
71'Danijel SturmAssist: Aljosa Matko
72'Ryan Christie INJosh Mcpake out
73'Ben Gannon-Doak INFindlay Curtis out
79'Zan Vipotnik INŽan Celar out
85'Mark ZabukovnikFoul
87'John McGinn INRobbie Ure out
89'Aljosa Matko INSrđan Kuzmić out
90+2'Žan CelarArgument

Lineups

Scotland
3-5-1-1Coach: Sébastien Pocognoli
Slovenia
5-4-1Coach: B. Cesar
Avg rating6.57
Avg rating6.90
A. Gunn6.51A. Gunn
S. Welsh6.75S. Welsh
J. Hendry7.013J. Hendry
L. Binks6.54L. Binks
B. Doak5.917B. Doak
J.  McGinn6.17J. McGinn
L. Ferguson7.119L. Ferguson
B. Gilmour6.08B. Gilmour
A. Robertson6.33A. Robertson
R. Christie7.711R. Christie
O. McBurnie6.99O. McBurnie
J. Oblak7.31J. Oblak
Ž. Karničnik6.52Ž. Karničnik
D. Brekalo7.123D. Brekalo
J. Bijol7.36J. Bijol
D. Zec6.417D. Zec
E. Janža6.113E. Janža
A. Matko8.220A. Matko
M. Zabukovnik6.24M. Zabukovnik
A. Čerin6.722A. Čerin
D. Šturm8.915D. Šturm
Z. Vipotnik6.318Z. Vipotnik

Scotland Substitutes

20K. Bowie66'for Oliver McBurnie6.4
15J. McPake72'for Ryan Christie6.7
23Kristi Montgomery
14L. Miller
21S. Bain
16Findlay Curtis73'for Ben Gannon-Doak6.6
6J. Doig
22N. Patterson
18L. Graham
2A. Hickey66'for Stephen Welsh6.6
10R. Ure87'for John McGinn6.3
12L. Kelly

Slovenia Substitutes

11Ž. Celar79'for Zan Vipotnik90+2'6.4
21V. Drkušić
10T. Elšnik
19T. Horvat
5S. Kuzmić89'for Aljosa Matko6.3
8S. Lovrić
14T. Svetlin
7J. Urbančič
16I. Vekič
12M. Vidovšek
3J. Balkovec
9T. Begić

Match Stats

ScotlandSlovenia
54%Ball Possession46%
1Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards4
12Total Shots10
6Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal4
8Shots Inside Box6
4Shots Outside Box4
1Blocked Shots3
11Fouls16
0Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves5
619Total Passes521
548Passes Accurate464
15Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

ScotlandScotland
SloveniaSlovenia
1602Elo Rating 1563
0.73Attack 1.30
1.45Defense 2.13
23%Hit Rate 46%
14.1Shots per Game 11.2
5.4Shots on Target 3.1
4.4Corners per Game 4.7
1.7Cards per Game 3.1

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

ScotlandScotland
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.5 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
SloveniaSlovenia
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

ScotlandScotland1Wins · 33%
Draws267%
SloveniaSlovenia0Wins · 0%
1.7Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored1 of 3
33%3+ goals1 of 3

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League26/09/2026
SloveniaScotland
00
World Cup - Qualification Europe08/10/2017
SloveniaScotland
22
World Cup - Qualification Europe26/03/2017
ScotlandSlovenia
10

Recent Form

ScotlandScotland
5W1D4L
03/10/2026
FYR MacedoniaScotland
02
W
29/09/2026
ScotlandSwitzerland
03
L
26/09/2026
SloveniaScotland
00
D
25/06/2026
ScotlandBrazil
03
L
20/06/2026
ScotlandMorocco
01
L
14/06/2026
HaitiScotland
01
W
06/06/2026
BoliviaScotland
04
W
30/05/2026
ScotlandCuraçao
41
W
18/11/2025
ScotlandDenmark
42
W
15/11/2025
GreeceScotland
32
L
SloveniaSlovenia
1W5D4L
03/10/2026
SwitzerlandSlovenia
21
L
29/09/2026
SloveniaFYR Macedonia
20
W
26/09/2026
SloveniaScotland
00
D
07/06/2026
CroatiaSlovenia
21
L
04/06/2026
SloveniaCyprus
11
D
18/11/2025
SwedenSlovenia
11
D
15/11/2025
SloveniaKosovo
02
L
13/10/2025
SloveniaSwitzerland
00
D
10/10/2025
KosovoSlovenia
00
D
08/09/2025
SwitzerlandSlovenia
30
L

Referee Profile

Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez61 matches

5.00Cards per match
4.75Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
26.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez5.00
Other referees4.66

5.00 cards a match, 0.34 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.66).

Cards come from 61 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SwitzerlandSwitzerland440011:1+1012WWWW
2SloveniaSlovenia42115:3+27WLWD
3ScotlandScotland41123:5-24LWLD
4FYR MacedoniaFYR Macedonia40040:10-100LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1SwitzerlandSwitzerland411:112
2SloveniaSlovenia45:37
3ScotlandScotland43:54
4FYR MacedoniaFYR Macedonia40:100
PromotionRelegation

About the Scotland vs Slovenia forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Scotland and Slovenia in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Slovenia are 2nd in the UEFA Nations League, 3 points ahead of Scotland in 3rd. League goal record so far: Scotland 3-5, Slovenia 5-3. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.