Southampton vs Bristol City Prediction
England · Regular Season - 7
12/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
85%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalSTRONGModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+0.4%
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.45
SignalGOODModel71%SurpriseMediumGap+4.5%
Southampton Rest
3 days
Bristol City Rest
7 days
Southampton vs Bristol City: the result in context
Southampton beat Bristol City 4-1 in the Championship on 12 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.3 a game across 4 meetings, with both teams scoring in 3.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
157%1.67
X31%4.05
212%4.60
Double Chance
1X88%1.18
X243%2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes56%1.59
No44%2.23
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.05 + 0.89 = 2.94
Over 1.582%1.17
Over 2.559%1.59
Over 3.533%2.45
Under 1.518%4.60
Under 2.541%2.31
Under 3.567%1.52
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.4 + 4.2 = 10.6
Over 8.567%1.30
Over 9.556%1.54
Over 10.549%1.91
Under 8.533%3.20
Under 9.544%2.35
Under 10.551%1.81
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2.1 = 3.6
Over 3.548%1.75
Over 4.529%2.63
Under 3.552%1.99
Under 4.571%1.45
Match Events
38'Cyle LarinAssist: Finn Azaz
45'Flynn Downes INCameron Bragg out
54'Lisav Naif EissatFoul
58'Dominic Ballard INSam Greenwood out
58'Yu Hirakawa INJed Wallace out
61'Cyle Larin
66'lorent tolajAssist: Rio Cardines
69'Léo Scienza INTom Fellows out
77'George Tanner INTomi Horvat out
78'Rio Cardines INCameron Pring out
78'Cyle Larin INDivin Mubama out
82'Kuryu MatsukiAssist: Finn Azaz
83'lorent tolaj INElijah Adebayo out
85'Finn AzazAssist: Divin Mubama
88'Ryan Manning INWelington out
88'Finn Azaz INLewis Dobbin out
89'Sam GreenwoodFoul
Lineups
SouthamptonBristol City
4-2-3-1Coach: M. SkubalaAvg ratingAvg rating
1D. Peretz
14J. Bree
15N. Wood-Gordon
13K. Schlotterbeck
3R. Manning
30J. Ward-Prowse
4F. Downes
27K. Matsuki
10F. Azaz
7L. Scienza
9C. Larin
1S. Tickle
19G. Tanner
16R. Dickie
2L. Eissat
21R. Cardines
8J. Williams
12J. Knight
7Y. Hirakawa
23D. Ballard
10S. Twine
9L. TolajSouthampton Substitutes
26Cameron Bragg45'for Flynn Downes
11L. Dobbin88'for Finn Azaz
23S. Edozie
18T. Fellows69'for Léo Scienza
6Z. Abbott
25G. Long
28D. Mubama78'for Cyle Larin
5J. Stephens
34Welington88'for Ryan Manning
Bristol City Substitutes
45E. Adebayo83'for lorent tolaj
40B. Collins
38N. Eile
20S. Greenwood58'for Dominic Ballard89'
14T. Horvat77'for George Tanner
3C. Pring78'for Rio Cardines
4A. Randell
17J. Wallace58'for Yu Hirakawa
27G. Yah
Match Stats
SouthamptonBristol City 56%Ball Possession44%
2Corner Kicks5
0Yellow Cards2
10Total Shots21
5Shots on Goal6
2Shots off Goal12
8Shots Inside Box18
2Shots Outside Box3
3Blocked Shots3
6Fouls14
4Goalkeeper Saves1
533Total Passes394
472Passes Accurate345
89%Pass Accuracy88%
Team Comparison
SouthamptonBristol City1794Elo Rating 1587
1.31Attack 0.31
2.18Defense 2.41
63%Hit Rate 14%
14.1Shots per Game 12.2
4.6Shots on Target 3.1
4.1Corners per Game 5.4
2.6Cards per Game 1.5
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+207 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.94 goals
📈BTTS Trend75% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Southampton- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.3 in second half)
Bristol City- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.3 vs 0 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 4 meetings, all competitions
Southampton1Wins · 25%Draws125%
Bristol City2Wins · 50%
2Wins · 50%3.3Avg Goals
75%Both teams scored3 of 4
75%3+ goals3 of 4
Previous meetings
21/04/2026SouthamptonBristol City22
21/10/2025Bristol CitySouthampton31
13/02/2024Bristol CitySouthampton31
29/11/2023SouthamptonBristol City10
Recent Form
Southampton6W2D2L
08/09/2026Southampton
SwanseaSouthampton
West HamSouthampton
Stoke City
ColchesterSouthampton
SouthamptonSwansea31
W05/09/2026
LincolnSouthampton
LincolnSouthampton11
D01/09/2026
BirminghamSouthampton
BirminghamSouthampton11
D29/08/2026Southampton
Millwall
25/08/2026SouthamptonMillwall51
WSouthamptonWest Ham14
L22/08/2026SouthamptonStoke City31
W16/08/2026
WatfordSouthampton
08/08/2026WatfordSouthampton21
LColchesterSouthampton02
W01/08/2026
Preußen MünsterSouthampton
Preußen MünsterSouthampton12
W24/07/2026
Eintracht BraunschweigSouthampton
Eintracht BraunschweigSouthampton01
WBristol City4W3D3L
05/09/2026
BurnleyBristol CityBirminghamBristol CityBristol City
Walsall
BurnleyBristol City12
W01/09/2026
PrestonBristol City
PrestonBristol City13
W29/08/2026Bristol City
Portsmouth
22/08/2026Bristol CityPortsmouth21
WBirminghamBristol City22
D15/08/2026Bristol CityMillwall
06/08/2026Bristol CityMillwall02
LBristol CityWalsall01
L01/08/2026
Exeter CityBristol City
Exeter CityBristol City11
D01/08/2026
PlymouthBristol City
PlymouthBristol City00
D29/07/2026Bristol City
Newcastle
Bristol CityNewcastle41
W29/07/2026
Forest GreenBristol City
Forest GreenBristol City32
LLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 30:17 | +13 | 28 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 20:13 | +7 | 26 | WLLWW |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 23:16 | +7 | 24 | WWDWL |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19:14 | +5 | 24 | WDWWL |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28:13 | +15 | 23 | WWDWW |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23:13 | +10 | 23 | WLWWW |
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20:16 | +4 | 23 | WDWLW |
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 33:18 | +15 | 22 | LLWWD |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21:16 | +5 | 20 | LWLWD |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17:15 | +2 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 19 | DWDWW |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 23:21 | +2 | 18 | WLDLW |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 18 | LWLWW |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15:17 | -2 | 18 | WDLLD |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 23:24 | -1 | 15 | WWLLL |
| 16 | Lincoln | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14:23 | -9 | 15 | LWDLL |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 14 | LWDWL |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 14 | LLWLD |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18:26 | -8 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11:21 | -10 | 14 | LLLDD |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12:23 | -11 | 11 | LLWLL |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 9 | DLLDW |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11:25 | -14 | 7 | LDLLD |
| 24 | Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10:27 | -17 | 5 | LDLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 | Wolves | 13 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 | West Brom | 13 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 | QPR | 13 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 13 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 13 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 13 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 | Cardiff | 13 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 | Charlton | 13 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 13 | 10:27 | 5 |
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About the Southampton vs Bristol City forecast
The forecasts for this Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Southampton and Bristol City in the Championship table
In the Championship table, Southampton are 5th and Bristol City 14th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Southampton 28-13, Bristol City 15-17. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.