Cardiff vs Swindon Town Prediction

Cardiff
3-2
Finished
HT 2-1
Swindon Town
Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff·Gavin Ward, England 08/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.57
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap+9.4%
Cardiff Rest
7 days
Swindon Town Rest
7 days

Cardiff vs Swindon Town: the result in context

Cardiff beat Swindon Town 3-2 in the League Cup on 8 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
71%1.32
X
24%5.30
2
5%8.20
Double Chance
1X
95%1.07
X2
29%3.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%1.81
No
54%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.27 + 1.01 = 3.28
Over 1.5
83%1.15
Over 2.5
50%1.51
Over 3.5
32%2.32
Under 1.5
17%4.98
Under 2.5
50%2.40
Under 3.5
68%1.57
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

9'Gabriel OshoOG
29'Yousef Salech(Penalty)
43'Yousef SalechAssist: Cian Ashford
46'Sam Inwood INRyan Tafazolli out
58'Isaak Davies INChris Willock out
58'David Turnbull INJoel Colwill out
58'Tom Nichols INJames Debayo out
58'Louis Millard INJoseph Hungbo out
62'Paul GlatzelAssist: Joseph Hungbo
63'Matthew Virtue-Thick INOllie Palmer out
64'Mitchell Clark INLucas Griffiths-Brown out
72'Ollie Tanner INJack Moylan out
77'Jack MoylanAssist: Yousef Salech
82'Joel ColwillFoul
84'James DebayoFoul
90'James DebayoFoul
90'James DebayoFoul

Lineups

Cardiff
Coach: Brian Barry-Murphy
Swindon Town
Coach: Scott Holloway Ian

Cardiff Starting XI

1Nathan Trott6.7
44Ronan Kpakio6.0
38Perry NgC7.2
4Gabriel Osho9'6.3
3Joel Bagan6.6
14David Turnbull58'replaced by Joel Colwill6.9
18Alex Robertson7.3
11Ollie Tanner72'replaced by Jack Moylan7.0
45Cian Ashford6.9
39Isaak Davies58'replaced by Chris Willock6.3
9Yousef Salech29'43'8.9
Avg rating6.91

Swindon Town Starting XI

1Connor Ripley6.9
2Mitchell Clark64'replaced by Lucas Griffiths-Brown6.5
5Stephan Negru7.0
16Sam Inwood46'replaced by Ryan Tafazolli6.3
34Billy Kirkman6.9
24Matthew Virtue-Thick63'replaced by Ollie Palmer6.6
7Tom Nichols58'replaced by James Debayo6.5
20Ben Middlemas6.9
39Louis Millard58'replaced by Joseph Hungbo6.5
23Aaron DrinanC6.3
9Paul Glatzel62'7.2
Avg rating6.65

Cardiff Substitutes

16Chris Willock58'for Isaak Davies7.0
27Joel Colwill58'for David Turnbull82'6.3
8Jack Moylan72'for Ollie Tanner77'7.3
30Harry Tyrer
40Noah Anyadike
43Paul Moreno
33Rob Tankiewicz
47Callum Robinson

Swindon Town Substitutes

17Ryan Tafazolli46'for Sam Inwood6.7
18James Debayo58'for Tom Nichols84'90'90'5.9
15Joseph Hungbo58'for Louis Millard7.2
28Ollie Palmer63'for Matthew Virtue-Thick7.0
38Lucas Griffiths-Brown64'for Mitchell Clark6.0
12Lewis Ward

Match Stats

CardiffSwindon Town
61%Ball Possession39%
6Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
15Total Shots12
4Shots on Goal1
4Shots off Goal4
13Shots Inside Box7
2Shots Outside Box5
7Blocked Shots7
8Fouls17
3Offsides3
0Goalkeeper Saves2
547Total Passes334
456Passes Accurate236
83%Pass Accuracy71%

Team Comparison

CardiffCardiff
Swindon TownSwindon Town
1650Elo Rating 1502
2.29Attack 0.88
1.87Defense 2.27
61%Hit Rate 23%
15.7Shots per Game 11.9
5.0Shots on Target 3.4
4.7Corners per Game 3.7
1.9Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+148 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.28 goals
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

CardiffCardiff
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.8 vs 0.5 in second half)
Swindon TownSwindon Town
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

CardiffCardiff1Wins · 100%
Draws00%
Swindon TownSwindon Town0Wins · 0%
3.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1

Previous meetings

League Cup12/08/2025
CardiffSwindon Town
21

Recent Form

CardiffCardiff
7W1D2L
01/08/2026
CardiffAS Roma
41
W
25/07/2026
Forest GreenCardiff
15
W
14/07/2026
Cork CityCardiff
16
W
11/07/2026
CardiffFC Midtjylland
06
L
02/05/2026
Mansfield TownCardiff
54
L
25/04/2026
CardiffNorthampton
51
W
22/04/2026
CardiffPort Vale
10
W
18/04/2026
ReadingCardiff
13
W
14/04/2026
HuddersfieldCardiff
11
D
11/04/2026
CardiffBolton
20
W
Swindon TownSwindon Town
3W1D6L
01/08/2026
Forest GreenSwindon Town
14
W
28/07/2026
Swindon TownLeyton Orient
21
W
25/07/2026
Swindon TownBristol City
13
L
18/07/2026
Crystal PalaceSwindon Town
51
L
14/07/2026
Swindon TownChippenham Town
01
L
04/07/2026
Swindon TownSwindon Supermarine
40
W
02/05/2026
Swindon TownChesterfield
12
L
25/04/2026
GrimsbySwindon Town
40
L
18/04/2026
Swindon TownAccrington ST
22
D
10/04/2026
ColchesterSwindon Town
30
L

Referee Profile

Gavin Ward203 matches

3.76Cards per match
3.65Yellow cards per match
0.12Red cards per match
21.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Gavin Ward3.76
Other referees3.80

3.76 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.80).

Cards come from 198 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Round of 16
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

About the Cardiff vs Swindon Town forecast

As a knockout tie in the League Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

More League Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the League Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Cardiff have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Cardiff and Swindon Town have met only 1 time recently, with 3.0 goals in that meeting. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.