Crewe vs Northampton Prediction

Crewe
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Northampton
Alexandra Stadium, Crewe·L. Sandoe 22/08/2026
CreweCrewe
1-0
Finished
NorthamptonNorthampton

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.32
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-2.6%
Crewe Rest
7 days
Northampton Rest
3 days

Crewe vs Northampton: result, form and history

Crewe beat Northampton 1-0 in the League Two on 22 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Crewe had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Northampton.

Their 4 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them. Northampton tend to win more corners, 6.7 a game to 3.7 for Crewe.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
47%2.15
X
29%3.32
2
24%3.13
Double Chance
1X
76%1.32
X2
53%1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.77
No
43%1.92
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.63 + 1.19 = 2.82
Over 1.5
79%1.30
Over 2.5
54%1.98
Over 3.5
30%3.40
Under 1.5
21%3.25
Under 2.5
46%1.80
Under 3.5
70%1.28
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 4 = 9.3
Over 8.5
58%1.36
Over 9.5
51%1.60
Over 10.5
40%2.00
Under 8.5
42%2.85
Under 9.5
49%2.16
Under 10.5
60%1.74
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.4 = 4.5
Over 3.5
57%-
Over 4.5
45%-
Under 3.5
43%-
Under 4.5
55%-

Match Events

37'J. MarchDelay of game
54'J. March
66'L. Briggs INJ. O'Brien Whitmarsh out
67'H. Saunders INE. List out
75'J. Lankester INC. McNeill out
75'J. Tabiner INK. Ure out
77'M. Warhurst INS. Hoskins out
87'L. EvansFoul
90'J. Gibson INA. Thibaut out

Lineups

Crewe
4-2-3-1Coach: Lee Bell
Northampton
4-4-2Coach: Chris Hogg
Avg rating6.88
Avg rating6.69
Tom Booth7.91T. Booth
Lewis BillingtonC6.92L. Billington
Luke Offord6.96L. Offord
Joshua Stephenson7.012J. Stephenson
Reece Hutchinson7.23R. Hutchinson
Matúš Holíček7.317M. Holíček
Joel Tabiner6.911J. Tabiner
Jack Lankester6.27J. Lankester
Calum Agius6.020C. Agius
Jordan Gibson6.714J. Gibson
Josh March7.39J. March
Zach Jeacock6.21Z. Jeacock
Janoi Donacien7.044J. Donacien
Elliott Moore6.96E. Moore
Jon GuthrieC6.95J. Guthrie
James Maxwell6.63J. Maxwell
Harvey Saunders6.332H. Saunders
Lee Evans6.98L. Evans
Tyrese Fornah7.214T. Fornah
Logan Briggs6.520L. Briggs
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans6.524C. Lemonheigh-Evans
Matty Warhurst6.69M. Warhurst

Crewe Substitutes

4Kyle Ure
23Charlie McNeill75'for J. Lankester6.9
29Adrien Thibaut90'for J. Gibson
22Phil Croker
30Stan Dancey
32Luca Moore
31Luke Thomas

Northampton Substitutes

4Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh66'for L. Briggs6.5
10Elliot List67'for H. Saunders6.9
7Sam Hoskins77'for M. Warhurst6.7
34Ross Fitzsimons
35Max Dyche
16Joe Wormleighton
21Jack Perkins

Match Stats

CreweNorthampton
49%Ball Possession51%
7Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards1
6Total Shots15
3Shots on Goal6
2Shots off Goal7
3Shots Inside Box11
3Shots Outside Box4
1Blocked Shots2
14Fouls12
1Offsides0
6Goalkeeper Saves2
444Total Passes455
352Passes Accurate376
79%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

CreweCrewe
NorthamptonNorthampton
1550Elo Rating 1421
1.30Attack 1.24
0.52Defense 2.32
36%Hit Rate 46%
9.3Shots per Game 14.0
3.6Shots on Target 4.1
3.7Corners per Game 6.7
1.0Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+128 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.81 goals
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

CreweCrewe
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
NorthamptonNorthampton
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

CreweCrewe2Wins · 50%
Draws125%
NorthamptonNorthampton1Wins · 25%
2.3Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
50%3+ goals2 of 4

Previous meetings

League Two18/03/2023
NorthamptonCrewe
10
League Two20/08/2022
CreweNorthampton
22
League One20/03/2021
NorthamptonCrewe
01
League One12/12/2020
CreweNorthampton
21

Recent Form

CreweCrewe
4W3D3L
15/08/2026
Crawley TownCrewe
01
W
08/08/2026
CreweAccrington ST
21
W
01/08/2026
ChesterCrewe
00
D
25/07/2026
CreweBirmingham
12
L
21/07/2026
AFC Telford UnitedCrewe
03
W
18/07/2026
CreweStoke City
11
D
11/07/2026
Witton AlbionCrewe
23
W
02/05/2026
CreweCambridge United
00
D
25/04/2026
ChesterfieldCrewe
20
L
18/04/2026
CreweMilton Keynes Dons
13
L
NorthamptonNorthampton
2W3D5L
18/08/2026
NorthamptonBrighton U21
03
L
15/08/2026
NorthamptonSwindon Town
00
D
08/08/2026
LeicesterNorthampton
10
L
01/08/2026
Solihull MoorsNorthampton
24
W
28/07/2026
Cambridge UnitedNorthampton
00
D
22/07/2026
SouthendNorthampton
13
W
18/07/2026
NorthamptonCoventry
00
D
11/07/2026
LeicesterNorthampton
30
L
02/05/2026
NorthamptonPlymouth
23
L
28/04/2026
NorthamptonBarnsley
01
L

Referee Profile

L. Sandoe4 matches analysed

4.12Cards per match
3.98Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
22.0Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 28% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

Full referee stats

League Table

League Two 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Salford CitySalford City14101325:15+1031WWWWW
2BarnetBarnet1375128:18+1026DWDLW
3WalsallWalsall1357121:12+922WLWDD
4CreweCrewe1457217:17022DLLWW
5CheltenhamCheltenham1463523:25-221LWWLL
6GrimsbyGrimsby1455424:18+620WWDLL
7YorkYork1455424:21+320LLWDD
8GillinghamGillingham1455420:19+120WLDLW
9Accrington STAccrington ST1447323:17+619DWDWD
10ChesterfieldChesterfield1454524:21+319LWDLD
11TranmereTranmere1447319:17+219WDWLD
12Exeter CityExeter City1454511:9+219LWWDW
13Swindon TownSwindon Town1454515:17-219WDWDL
14Newport CountyNewport County1446420:17+318WLDDW
15ShrewsburyShrewsbury1453617:22-518LDWWL
16Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1445518:18017WLLWD
17Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1451817:23-616LDLLL
18Port ValePort Vale1243510:14-415WLDWW
19RochdaleRochdale1443717:26-915LLDLD
20NorthamptonNorthampton123549:9014DWLWD
21OldhamOldham1333714:19-512LDLWD
22RotherhamRotherham1426618:25-712LDDLL
23ColchesterColchester1326512:19-712LLDDL
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1223713:21-89WDLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Salford CitySalford City1425:1531
2BarnetBarnet1328:1826
3WalsallWalsall1321:1222
4CreweCrewe1417:1722
5CheltenhamCheltenham1423:2521
6GrimsbyGrimsby1424:1820
7YorkYork1424:2120
8GillinghamGillingham1420:1920
9Accrington STAccrington ST1423:1719
10ChesterfieldChesterfield1424:2119
11TranmereTranmere1419:1719
12Exeter CityExeter City1411:919
13Swindon TownSwindon Town1415:1719
14Newport CountyNewport County1420:1718
15ShrewsburyShrewsbury1417:2218
16Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1418:1817
17Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1417:2316
18Port ValePort Vale1210:1415
19RochdaleRochdale1417:2615
20NorthamptonNorthampton129:914
21OldhamOldham1314:1912
22RotherhamRotherham1418:2512
23ColchesterColchester1312:1912
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1213:219
PromotionRelegation

About the Crewe vs Northampton forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Crewe and Northampton in the League Two table

In the League Two table, Crewe are 4th and Northampton 20th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Crewe 17-17, Northampton 9-9. The full standings are on the League Two Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Northampton have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.