Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife Prediction

Vila Nova
4-3
Finished
HT 4-1
Nautico Recife
A. Daronco 21/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.32
SignalGOODModel42%SurpriseMediumGap-1.5%
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.67
SignalSOLIDModel34%SurpriseMediumGap+5.0%
Vila Nova Rest
6 days
Nautico Recife Rest
6 days

Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife: result, form and history

Vila Nova beat Nautico Recife 4-3 in the Serie B on 20 Jun 2026. It was in line with recent form: Vila Nova had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Nautico Recife.

Vila Nova have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.2 goals a game. Referee A. Daronco averages 4.49 cards a game, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
47%2.28
X
27%3.08
2
26%3.21
Double Chance
1X
74%1.32
X2
52%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%1.83
No
53%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.36 + 0.88 = 2.24
Over 1.5
69%1.36
Over 2.5
38%2.15
Over 3.5
20%3.77
Under 1.5
31%2.90
Under 2.5
62%1.67
Under 3.5
80%1.23
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.3 = 9.6
Over 8.5
58%1.40
Over 9.5
49%1.69
Over 10.5
38%2.06
Under 8.5
42%2.71
Under 9.5
51%2.04
Under 10.5
62%1.68
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.8 + 2.6 = 5.4
Over 3.5
78%-
Over 4.5
63%1.44
Under 3.5
22%-
Under 4.5
37%2.55

Match Events

4'JandersonAssist: Dodo
8'Andre LuisAssist: Ryan
16'Mateus SilvaFoul
18'JandersonAssist: Andre Luis
29'Mateus Silva INMatheus Ribeiro out
29'Leonai Souza INLuiz Claudio out
34'Tiago PagnussatFoul
36'Dodo
42'Ryan
45'Luiz FelipeFoul
46'Reginaldo INArnaldo out
62'Arnaldo INLeo Jance out
65'Vinicius
66'Dodo INDudu out
76'Andre Luis INDellatorre out
76'Ryan INHayner out
78'Victor Andrade INFelipe Cardoso out
85'Janderson INEmerson Urso out
85'Joao Vieira INEnzo Bizzotto out
90+1'Luiz ClaudioAssist: Dodo
90+6'Emerson UrsoFoul

Team Comparison

Vila NovaVila Nova
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
1661Elo Rating 1552
1.72Attack 0.27
1.38Defense 1.47
17%Hit Rate 27%
14.1Shots per Game 15.3
5.1Shots on Target 4.2
6.1Corners per Game 5.7
2.6Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+109 Elo
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Vila NovaVila Nova
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.3 vs 0 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

Vila NovaVila Nova3Wins · 60%
Draws00%
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife2Wins · 40%
2.2Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Copa Do Brasil09/03/2023
Nautico RecifeVila Nova
21
Serie B20/08/2022
Nautico RecifeVila Nova
12
Serie B07/05/2022
Vila NovaNautico Recife
20
Serie B11/09/2021
Vila NovaNautico Recife
10
Serie B16/06/2021
Nautico RecifeVila Nova
20

Recent Form

Vila NovaVila Nova
6W2D2L
14/06/2026
CuiabaVila Nova
10
L
09/06/2026
Vila NovaBotafogo SP
10
W
31/05/2026
LondrinaVila Nova
01
W
24/05/2026
America MineiroVila Nova
12
W
17/05/2026
Vila NovaAvai
20
W
09/05/2026
GoiasVila Nova
10
L
05/05/2026
Vila NovaAthletic Club
11
D
26/04/2026
CearaVila Nova
33
D
18/04/2026
Vila NovaOperario-PR
21
W
11/04/2026
Ponte PretaVila Nova
01
W
Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
4W2D4L
15/06/2026
NovorizontinoNautico Recife
22
D
10/06/2026
Nautico RecifeFortaleza EC
01
L
31/05/2026
Sport RecifeNautico Recife
20
L
23/05/2026
Nautico RecifeCuiaba
10
W
16/05/2026
Operario-PRNautico Recife
26
W
10/05/2026
Nautico RecifeAmerica Mineiro
40
W
02/05/2026
Botafogo SPNautico Recife
11
D
28/04/2026
Athletic ClubNautico Recife
01
W
18/04/2026
Nautico RecifeSão Bernardo
03
L
12/04/2026
CearaNautico Recife
10
L

Referee Profile

A. Daronco308 matches

4.49Cards per match
4.25Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
27.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

A. Daronco4.49
Other referees5.20

4.49 cards a match, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.20).

Cards come from 240 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino372010766:32+3470WWWDW
2JuventudeJuventude371911749:26+2368WDWDD
3Vila NovaVila Nova37199953:38+1566WDLDW
4CriciumaCriciuma371881138:31+762LWLWW
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC371614744:33+1162LDDWD
6CRBCRB371771357:51+658WLWLD
7GoiasGoias371771339:41-258WWWDW
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense371513945:35+1058WDLDD
9Sport RecifeSport Recife3714131050:42+855LDWLD
10Operario-PROperario-PR371591349:50-154WLWLL
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3714101352:42+1052LWWLD
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP371491445:39+651WDWWW
13CuiabaCuiaba3711141234:32+247LLLLL
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3711141244:44047LWLDD
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3712101540:49-946LWLDL
16CearaCeara3711101638:47-943LLLDL
17AvaiAvai371171935:47-1240WLLDW
18LondrinaLondrina37882145:58-1332LLLWD
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro37852427:55-2829WWWWL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta37362821:79-5815LLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3766:3270
2JuventudeJuventude3749:2668
3Vila NovaVila Nova3753:3866
4CriciumaCriciuma3738:3162
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3744:3362
6CRBCRB3757:5158
7GoiasGoias3739:4158
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3745:3558
9Sport RecifeSport Recife3750:4255
10Operario-PROperario-PR3749:5054
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3752:4252
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3745:3951
13CuiabaCuiaba3734:3247
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3744:4447
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3740:4946
16CearaCeara3738:4743
17AvaiAvai3735:4740
18LondrinaLondrina3745:5832
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3727:5529
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3721:7915
PromotionRelegation

About the Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Vila Nova and Nautico Recife in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Vila Nova are 3rd and Nautico Recife 15th, 20 points apart. League goal record so far: Vila Nova 53-38, Nautico Recife 40-49. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.