Alaves vs Malaga Prediction

Alaves
1-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Malaga
Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz·Carlos Muñiz Muñoz 23/10/2026
AlavesAlaves
1-1
Finished
MalagaMalaga

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
60%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.66
SignalNEUTRALModel65%SurpriseMediumGap-0.2%
Alaves Rest
5 days
Malaga Rest
5 days

Alaves vs Malaga: result, form and history

Alaves and Malaga drew 1-1 in the La Liga on 23 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Carlos Muñiz Muñoz averages 3.83 cards a game, 1.44 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
59%1.66
X
27%3.80
2
14%5.75
Double Chance
1X
86%1.15
X2
41%2.20
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.95
No
52%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.83 + 0.93 = 2.76
Over 1.5
73%1.33
Over 2.5
49%2.04
Over 3.5
29%3.49
Under 1.5
27%3.25
Under 2.5
51%1.80
Under 3.5
71%1.29
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.5 + 3.9 = 8.4
Over 8.5
45%1.48
Over 9.5
34%1.85
Over 10.5
24%2.35
Under 8.5
55%2.55
Under 9.5
66%1.90
Under 10.5
76%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.6 = 4.6
Over 3.5
67%1.54
Over 4.5
48%2.10
Under 3.5
33%2.42
Under 4.5
52%1.68

Match Events

39'Lucas BoyéFoul
44'Adrian NinoAssist: Ramón Enríquez
45'Goal confirmedAdrian Nino
45'Carles Aleñá INHugo Novoa Ramos out
55'Nicolas Valentini INYoussef Enriquez out
55'Abderrahmane Rebbach INDenis Suárez out
66'Mariano Díaz INToni Martínez out
67'Nahuel TenagliaDissent
68'Adam Aznou INJosé Salinas out
68'Ramón Enríquez INRafael Rodríguez Ruiz out
75'Antonio Blanco INAitor Mañas out
77'Carlos Puga INJuan Berrocal out
77'Adrian Nino INCarlos Ruiz Rubio out
84'Carlos DotorFoul
87'Carlos Dotor INJens Cajuste out
89'Aitor Mañas
90+2'Juan Francisco Funes ArjonaDissent

Lineups

Alaves
5-3-2Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores
Malaga
4-1-4-1Coach: Funes
Avg rating6.79
Avg rating6.76
Sivera6.91Sivera
Angel Pérez7.37A. Pérez
N. Tenaglia6.614N. Tenaglia
V. Koski7.016V. Koski
N. Valentini6.32N. Valentini
A. Rebbach6.121A. Rebbach
Pablo Ibáñez6.719P. Ibáñez
Antonio Blanco6.78A. Blanco
Carles Aleñá7.010C. Aleñá
L. Boyé6.415L. Boyé
M. Díaz6.49M. Díaz
Alfonso Herrero6.11A. Herrero
Puga7.23Puga
Ángel Recio6.615Á. Recio
Einar Galilea7.44E. Galilea
Rafita7.131Rafita
Ramón Enríquez7.56R. Enríquez
David Larrubia6.510D. Larrubia
Carlos Dotor6.38C. Dotor
Dani Lorenzo6.722D. Lorenzo
Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh6.339A. Aznou Ben Cheikh
Adrián Niño Heredia8.121A. Niño Heredia

Alaves Substitutes

23C. Benavídez
4Denis Suárez55'for Abderrahmane Rebbach6.9
22Miguel Rodríguez
13A. Giménez
27X. Olaiz
12Hugo Novoa45'for Carles Aleñá6.9
33Rubén Montero
20Aitor Mañas75'for Antonio Blanco89'8.2
11Toni Martínez66'for Mariano Díaz7.0
3Yusi55'for Nicolas Valentini6.5
24Selu Diallo
17Jonny

Malaga Substitutes

2J. Cajuste87'for Carlos Dotor6.5
23Izan Merino
20Fernando Calero
9Chupe77'for Adrian Nino6.8
17Eneko Jauregi
13Carlos López
5Álex Pastor
14Rafa Rodríguez68'for Ramón Enríquez6.2
12José Salinas68'for Adam Aznou6.7
7H. Abaida
32J. Fernandez
25Juan Berrocal77'for Carlos Puga6.4

Match Stats

AlavesMalaga
63%Ball Possession37%
7Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards1
18Total Shots6
4Shots on Goal3
8Shots off Goal3
12Shots Inside Box4
6Shots Outside Box2
6Blocked Shots0
14Fouls12
0Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves3
426Total Passes464
368Passes Accurate385
12Free Kicks14

Team Comparison

AlavesAlaves
MalagaMalaga
1741Elo Rating 1632
0.64Attack 1.07
1.56Defense 0.59
0%Hit Rate 0%
12.4Shots per Game 12.7
4.7Shots on Target 4.4
2.4Corners per Game 6.0
1.1Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+108 Elo
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

AlavesAlaves
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
MalagaMalaga
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.2 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

AlavesAlaves1Wins · 50%
Draws00%
MalagaMalaga1Wins · 50%
2.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

Segunda División20/05/2023
AlavesMalaga
21
Segunda División18/12/2022
MalagaAlaves
10

Referee Profile

Carlos Muñiz Muñoz91 matches

3.83Cards per match
3.58Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
25.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Carlos Muñiz Muñoz3.83
Other referees5.27

3.83 cards a match, 1.44 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.27).

Cards come from 48 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona990039:9+3027WWWWW
2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid971119:8+1122WWWWW
3Real MadridReal Madrid970223:9+1421WWLWW
4Real BetisReal Betis961216:14+219LWDWW
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad951317:17016WWWLW
6SevillaSevilla942314:16-214LDLWW
7AlavesAlaves1033414:11+312DLLDL
8VillarrealVillarreal1033415:14+112WDLWW
9Celta VigoCelta Vigo925210:7+311WDWDD
10Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna925213:12+111DLDLD
11OsasunaOsasuna932410:18-811WLDLL
12Racing SantanderRacing Santander1032515:26-1111WLDLL
13LevanteLevante924315:17-210WDDLL
14ElcheElche1024414:17-310WDDWL
15Athletic ClubAthletic Club82338:9-19DDDDW
16GetafeGetafe92345:11-69DLWLD
17Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano923412:20-89DDDWL
18EspanyolEspanyol1022612:14-28LLDLL
19ValenciaValencia101367:17-106LDDLW
20MalagaMalaga100557:19-125DLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona939:927
2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid919:822
3Real MadridReal Madrid923:921
4Real BetisReal Betis916:1419
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad917:1716
6SevillaSevilla914:1614
7AlavesAlaves1014:1112
8VillarrealVillarreal1015:1412
9Celta VigoCelta Vigo910:711
10Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna913:1211
11OsasunaOsasuna910:1811
12Racing SantanderRacing Santander1015:2611
13LevanteLevante915:1710
14ElcheElche1014:1710
15Athletic ClubAthletic Club88:99
16GetafeGetafe95:119
17Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano912:209
18EspanyolEspanyol1012:148
19ValenciaValencia107:176
20MalagaMalaga107:195
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Alaves vs Malaga forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Alaves and Malaga in the La Liga table

In the La Liga table, Alaves are 7th and Malaga 20th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Alaves 14-11, Malaga 7-19. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Alaves and Malaga have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.0 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.