Alaves vs Valencia Prediction
Spain · Regular Season - 6
Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz 15/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.67
SignalGOODModel69%SurpriseMediumGap+10.9%
Alaves Rest
3 days
Valencia Rest
3 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
154%1.70
X25%3.60
221%5.70
Double Chance
1X79%1.16
X247%2.13
Both Teams to Score
Yes48%1.95
No52%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.58 + 1 = 2.58
Over 1.573%1.33
Over 2.544%2.10
Over 3.521%3.56
Under 1.527%3.20
Under 2.556%1.76
Under 3.579%1.28
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4 = 9.5
Over 8.561%1.50
Over 9.552%1.84
Over 10.538%2.35
Under 8.539%2.45
Under 9.548%1.90
Under 10.562%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2 = 3.8
Over 3.553%1.55
Over 4.533%2.04
Under 3.547%2.38
Under 4.567%1.72
Match Events
18'Goal cancelledArnaut Danjuma
21'Javi GuerraArgument
21'Antonio BlancoArgument
45+2'José Luis García VayáFoul
52'Aaron MayolFoul
61'Guido RodríguezFoul
63'Hugo Duro INLuis Rioja out
67'Toni Martínez INMariano Díaz out
67'Denis Suárez INYoussef Enriquez out
70'Guido Rodríguez INDavid Otorbi Ejededawe out
78'Luis RiojaAssist: Javi Guerra
82'Luis Rioja INJesús Vázquez out
82'Justin De Haas INIker Córdoba out
82'Pablo Maffeo INArnau Martínez López out
85'Angel Pérez Hidalgo INCarles Aleñá out
85'Antonio Blanco INAnder Guevara out
85'Abderrahmane Rebbach INMiguel Rodríguez out
Lineups
AlavesValencia
4-2-3-1Coach: Óscar SánchezAvg ratingAvg rating
1Sivera
14N. Tenaglia
16V. Koski
2N. Valentini
7A. Pérez
19P. Ibáñez
8A. Blanco
4D. Suárez
21A. Rebbach
11T. Martínez
15L. Boyé
1S. Dimitrievski
24P. Maffeo
18Pepelu
12J. de Haas
14J. Gayà
33A. Mayol
2G. Rodríguez
23F. Ugrinic
8J. Guerra
7A. Danjuma
9H. DuroAlaves Substitutes
23C. Benavídez
10Carles Aleñá85'for Angel Pérez Hidalgo
17Jonny
24Selu Diallo
9M. Díaz67'for Toni Martínez
3Yusi67'for Denis Suárez
6Guevara85'for Antonio Blanco
29Izei Hernández
12Hugo Novoa
27X. Olaiz
13A. Giménez
22Miguel Rodríguez85'for Abderrahmane Rebbach
Valencia Substitutes
21Jesús Vázquez82'replaced by Luis Rioja
39R. Sato
11Luis Rioja63'for Hugo Duro78'82'for Jesús Vázquez
19Dani Raba
29Alex Panach
27David Otorbi70'for Guido Rodríguez
22Arnau Martínez82'for Pablo Maffeo
10H. Elliott
15A. Dieng
36Iker Córdoba82'for Justin De Haas
37Aimar Blázquez
25K. van Oevelen
Match Stats
AlavesValencia 43%Ball Possession57%
2Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards4
15Total Shots10
3Shots on Goal3
8Shots off Goal2
11Shots Inside Box5
4Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots5
7Fouls14
3Offsides4
2Goalkeeper Saves3
344Total Passes475
271Passes Accurate389
79%Pass Accuracy82%
Team Comparison
AlavesValencia1731Elo Rating 1735
0.73Attack 1.11
0.82Defense 1.79
0%Hit Rate 27%
12.0Shots per Game 11.3
3.9Shots on Target 3.6
3.8Corners per Game 3.8
2.2Cards per Game 2.8
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Alaves- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.1 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Valencia- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Alaves4Wins · 40%Draws440%
Valencia2Wins · 20%
2Wins · 20%2.4Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10
Previous meetings
08/03/2026ValenciaAlaves32
20/10/2025AlavesValencia00
14/05/2025AlavesValencia10
22/12/2024ValenciaAlaves22
05/05/2024ValenciaAlaves01
02/09/2023AlavesValencia10
13/02/2022AlavesValencia21
27/08/2021ValenciaAlaves30
24/04/2021ValenciaAlaves11
22/11/2020AlavesValencia22
Recent Form
Alaves6W2D2L
12/09/2026
Racing SantanderAlavesAlaves
OsasunaAlaves
Villarreal
Rayo VallecanoAlaves
Racing SantanderAlaves21
L06/09/2026AlavesOsasuna52
W28/08/2026AlavesVillarreal10
W20/08/2026Rayo VallecanoAlaves11
D15/08/2026Alaves
Getafe
AlavesGetafe30
W07/08/2026Racing SantanderAlaves
Racing SantanderAlaves6171
W31/07/2026Alaves
Castellón
AlavesCastellón30
W25/07/2026
GironaAlaves
GironaAlaves01
W18/07/2026Alaves
Eibar
AlavesEibar11
D23/05/2026AlavesRayo Vallecano
AlavesRayo Vallecano12
LValencia2W2D6L
11/09/2026
SevillaValenciaValencia
Barcelona
Deportivo La CorunaValenciaValencia
Real BetisValencia
Celta Vigo
SevillaValencia10
L06/09/2026ValenciaBarcelona05
L30/08/2026Deportivo La CorunaValencia31
L25/08/2026ValenciaReal Betis01
L22/08/2026ValenciaCelta Vigo00
D08/08/2026Valencia
Newcastle
ValenciaNewcastle12
L01/08/2026
Stoke CityValencia
Stoke CityValencia11
D28/07/2026
DerbyValencia
DerbyValencia12
W25/07/2026ValenciaCastellón
ValenciaCastellón12
L22/07/2026Valencia
Eldense
ValenciaEldense30
WLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 48:13 | +35 | 33 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31:10 | +21 | 30 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23:10 | +13 | 28 | LWWWW |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20:15 | +5 | 26 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21:20 | +1 | 22 | WLWWW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17:19 | -2 | 18 | DLWLD |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15:11 | +4 | 16 | WWLDD |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17:15 | +2 | 15 | WLWDL |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15:14 | +1 | 15 | DWLDL |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17:30 | -13 | 14 | WLWLD |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10:10 | 0 | 13 | DLDWD |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15:17 | -2 | 13 | DLDLL |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13:14 | -1 | 12 | DWLLD |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:21 | -6 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8:18 | -10 | 12 | LWLDL |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:23 | -11 | 12 | DLLWL |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16:21 | -5 | 11 | DLLWD |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14:20 | -6 | 10 | LLWDD |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8:20 | -12 | 9 | LWLDD |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9:23 | -14 | 5 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 48:13 | 33 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 31:10 | 30 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 23:10 | 28 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 20:15 | 26 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 21:20 | 22 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 15:11 | 16 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 17:15 | 15 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 15:14 | 15 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 17:30 | 14 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 15:21 | 12 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 8:18 | 12 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 16:21 | 11 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 14:20 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 8:20 | 9 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 9:23 | 5 |
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About the Alaves vs Valencia forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Alaves and Valencia in the La Liga table
In the La Liga table, Alaves are 12th and Valencia 19th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Alaves 15-17, Valencia 8-20. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.