Almeria vs Leganes Prediction

Almeria
3-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Leganes
UD Almería Stadium, Almeria·Gonzalo Romero Freixas 11/10/2026
AlmeriaAlmeria
3-0
Finished
LeganesLeganes

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
58%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.62
SignalNEUTRALModel61%SurpriseMediumGap-3.5%
Almeria Rest
8 days
Leganes Rest
7 days

Almeria vs Leganes: result, form and history

Almeria beat Leganes 3-0 in the Segunda División on 11 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Almeria had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Leganes.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 7 previous meetings averaged 3.0 goals, and both sides scored in 5 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
56%1.62
X
26%3.92
2
18%5.00
Double Chance
1X
81%1.16
X2
44%2.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.73
No
48%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.82 + 0.88 = 2.70
Over 1.5
77%1.22
Over 2.5
54%1.75
Over 3.5
33%2.90
Under 1.5
23%3.92
Under 2.5
46%2.06
Under 3.5
67%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 4 = 9.7
Over 8.5
58%1.48
Over 9.5
48%1.84
Over 10.5
37%2.35
Under 8.5
42%2.40
Under 9.5
52%1.90
Under 10.5
63%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.8 = 4.5
Over 3.5
66%-
Over 4.5
47%1.53
Under 3.5
34%-
Under 4.5
53%2.43

Match Events

13'Marvelous Antolín GarzónFoul
45'Thalys Henrique Gomes de Araújo INMiguel De La Fuente out
52'Miguel De La FuenteAssist: Stefan Džodić
57'Miguel De La FuenteAssist: Brian Cipenga
61'Daijiro ChirinoAssist: Quim junyent
63'Marvelous Antolín Garzón INFrancisco Montero out
63'Miguel Atienza INYassine Kechta out
64'Álvaro Tejero INEnric Franquesa out
64'Ismael Gharbi INPatrick Soko out
66'Original decision changedDani Rodriguez
66'Yassine KechtaFoul
67'Enric FranquesaFoul
71'Álvaro Morata INÁlex Millán out
71'Daijiro Chirino INMarcos Luna out
71'Quim junyent INNicolás Melamed Ribaudo out
74'Javier Muñoz JiménezFoul
77'Francisco MonteroFoul
81'Brian Cipenga INJon Morcillo out
82'Nicolás Melamed RibaudoFoul
86'Javier Muñoz Jiménez INLéo Baptistão out
90'Álex MillánFoul

Lineups

Almeria
4-2-3-1Coach: Xavier García Pimienta
Leganes
5-3-2Coach: Rubén Albés
Avg rating7.31
Avg rating6.21
Andrés Fernández7.01A. Fernández
D. Chirino8.322D. Chirino
Chumi7.021Chumi
F. Bonini7.418F. Bonini
Álex Muñoz7.63Á. Muñoz
S. Džodić7.729S. Džodić
Javi Muñoz6.414J. Muñoz
Quim Junyent7.733Q. Junyent
Sergio Arribas7.211S. Arribas
B. Cipenga7.517B. Cipenga
Thalys7.19Thalys
L. Zidane6.613L. Zidane
Naim García6.411N. García
Lalo Aguilar5.86L. Aguilar
Ignasi Miquel6.25I. Miquel
Marvel6.02Marvel
Álvaro Tejero6.323Á. Tejero
Z. Buurmeester6.310Z. Buurmeester
Miguel Atienza6.120M. Atienza
Dani Rodríguez6.014D. Rodríguez
Ismaël Gharbi6.717I. Gharbi
Álvaro Morata6.421Á. Morata

Almeria Substitutes

10Nico Melamed71'for Quim junyent82'6.8
13Fernando Martínez
2Marcos Luna71'for Daijiro Chirino7.2
7Jon Morcillo81'for Brian Cipenga6.6
5Jorge Pulido
31Á. Yaakobishvili
15Leonardo Lelo
24Miguel de la Fuente45'for Thalys Henrique Gomes de Araújo52'57'9.0
26K. Kone
23Adri Embarba
12Léo Baptistão86'for Javier Muñoz Jiménez6.5

Leganes Substitutes

18Andrés Campos
24A. Diawara
32Suleiman El Haddadi Mohamed
1Raúl Fernández
15Enric Franquesa64'for Álvaro Tejero67'5.8
8Y. Kechta63'for Miguel Atienza66'5.7
9Álex Millán71'for Álvaro Morata90'6.5
3Javi Montero63'for Marvelous Antolín Garzón77'5.9
19P. Soko64'for Ismael Gharbi6.8
4Rubén Pulido6.1
22Álex Sancris
16U. del Cura

Match Stats

AlmeriaLeganes
64%Ball Possession36%
8Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards5
18Total Shots7
8Shots on Goal1
6Shots off Goal4
11Shots Inside Box4
7Shots Outside Box3
4Blocked Shots2
15Fouls25
1Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves5
595Total Passes328
526Passes Accurate257
23Free Kicks14

Team Comparison

AlmeriaAlmeria
LeganesLeganes
1727Elo Rating 1541
2.51Attack 0.27
1.84Defense 0.97
73%Hit Rate 0%
12.8Shots per Game 11.0
5.0Shots on Target 2.2
4.7Corners per Game 4.6
1.9Cards per Game 4.1

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+185 Elo
📈BTTS Trend71% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

AlmeriaAlmeria
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
LeganesLeganes
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.3 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

AlmeriaAlmeria3Wins · 43%
Draws229%
LeganesLeganes2Wins · 28%
3.0Avg Goals
71%Both teams scored5 of 7
71%3+ goals5 of 7

Previous meetings

Segunda División05/04/2026
AlmeriaLeganes
21
Segunda División22/11/2025
LeganesAlmeria
03
Copa del Rey15/01/2025
AlmeriaLeganes
23
Segunda División29/05/2022
LeganesAlmeria
22
Segunda División29/10/2021
AlmeriaLeganes
10
Segunda División27/03/2021
AlmeriaLeganes
11
Segunda División17/02/2021
LeganesAlmeria
21

Recent Form

AlmeriaAlmeria
8W0D2L
03/10/2026
AlmeriaBurgos
21
W
27/09/2026
MallorcaAlmeria
01
W
20/09/2026
AlmeriaCelta de Vigo II
20
W
12/09/2026
CordobaAlmeria
02
W
06/09/2026
AlmeriaCadiz
32
W
29/08/2026
SabadellAlmeria
10
L
23/08/2026
TenerifeAlmeria
10
L
17/08/2026
AlmeriaEldense
30
W
07/08/2026
CordobaAlmeria
04
W
04/08/2026
Al-NassrAlmeria
02
W
LeganesLeganes
4W2D4L
03/10/2026
CadizLeganes
40
L
28/09/2026
LeganesCastellón
02
L
20/09/2026
LeganesGranada CF
32
W
13/09/2026
TenerifeLeganes
20
L
04/09/2026
Las PalmasLeganes
00
D
29/08/2026
LeganesEldense
10
W
22/08/2026
OviedoLeganes
01
W
16/08/2026
GironaLeganes
11
D
08/08/2026
LeganesTenerife
3040
L
07/08/2026
LeganesMérida AD
30
W

Referee Profile

Gonzalo Romero Freixas4 matches analysed

4.76Cards per match
4.62Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
26.2Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 74% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

League Table

Segunda División 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1AlmeriaAlmeria1181222:9+1325DWWWW
2CastellónCastellón1072118:4+1423WLDWW
3EibarEibar1171320:13+722LDLWW
4GironaGirona1163222:10+1221WWDDW
5Granada CFGranada CF1162318:14+420WWWWL
6MallorcaMallorca1154213:6+719DDWDL
7Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1061311:9+219WWWLW
8OviedoOviedo1153315:12+318DWWLW
9BurgosBurgos1052313:10+317WLLWW
10SabadellSabadell1145211:9+217DLWDD
11CordobaCordoba1150617:20-315WWLWL
12TenerifeTenerife1135313:15-214DDDLD
13EldenseEldense1142513:15-214LWWWL
14Las PalmasLas Palmas1142514:19-514WLLDL
15ValladolidValladolid1133516:16012LLWDW
16Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1133516:21-512LDWLD
17LeganesLeganes113357:16-912DLLLL
18CadizCadiz1124514:14010WLLWD
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1031613:17-410LWDWL
20Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1122714:22-88LLLLL
21AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1112810:25-155LLLDW
22AlbaceteAlbacete111198:22-144WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1AlmeriaAlmeria1122:925
2CastellónCastellón1018:423
3EibarEibar1120:1322
4GironaGirona1122:1021
5Granada CFGranada CF1118:1420
6MallorcaMallorca1113:619
7Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1011:919
8OviedoOviedo1115:1218
9BurgosBurgos1013:1017
10SabadellSabadell1111:917
11CordobaCordoba1117:2015
12TenerifeTenerife1113:1514
13EldenseEldense1113:1514
14Las PalmasLas Palmas1114:1914
15ValladolidValladolid1116:1612
16Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1116:2112
17LeganesLeganes117:1612
18CadizCadiz1114:1410
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1013:1710
20Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1114:228
21AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1110:255
22AlbaceteAlbacete118:224
PromotionRelegation

About the Almeria vs Leganes forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Almeria and Leganes in the Segunda División table

In the Segunda División table, Almeria are 1st and Leganes 17th, 13 points apart. League goal record so far: Almeria 22-9, Leganes 7-16. The full standings are on the Segunda División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Almeria have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.