Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
England · Regular Season - 4
Villa Park, Birmingham 12/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.56
SignalGOODModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+4.0%
Aston Villa Rest
3 days
Nottingham Forest Rest
7 days
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: result, form and history
Nottingham Forest beat Aston Villa 2-1 in the Premier League on 12 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
144%2.25
X28%3.40
228%3.30
Double Chance
1X72%1.34
X256%1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes57%1.70
No43%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.65 + 1.26 = 2.91
Over 1.581%1.29
Over 2.560%1.94
Over 3.536%3.24
Under 1.519%3.40
Under 2.540%1.91
Under 3.564%1.32
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.1 = 9.4
Over 8.561%1.40
Over 9.552%1.73
Over 10.538%2.20
Under 8.539%2.70
Under 9.548%2.01
Under 10.562%1.62
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2 = 3.9
Over 3.554%1.78
Over 4.534%2.54
Under 3.546%1.98
Under 4.566%1.49
Match Events
25'Pau Torres INTyrone Mings out
43'Dan NdoyeFoul
45'Nicolas Jackson INTammy Abraham out
45'George Hemmings IN Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha out
45'Nicolas JacksonArgument
45+3'Murillo SantiagoFoul
46'Liam DelapAssist: Murillo Santiago
56'Xaver SchlagerFoul
63'Ross Barkley INJohan Manzambi out
63'Emiliano Buendía INIbrahim Mbaye out
74' Alysson Edward Franco da RochaAssist: John McGinn
75'Dan Ndoye INIgor Jesus out
75'Liam DelapDissent
80'James McateeFoul
82'James Mcatee INIbrahim Sangaré out
88'Igor JesusAssist: Morgan Gibbs-White
90+1'Liam Delap INChris Wood out
90+5'Tyrone MingsFoul
Lineups
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
3-4-2-1Coach: O. GlasnerAvg ratingAvg rating
1Z. Suzuki
29A. Wan-Bissaka
3V. Lindelöf
14P. Torres
22I. Maatsen
8B. Kamara
6R. Barkley
7J. McGinn
10E. Buendía
53G. Hemmings
11N. Jackson
26M. Sels
34O. Aina
2O. Diomande
5Murillo
27D. Muñoz
24J. McAtee
21X. Schlager
3N. Williams
14D. Ndoye
10M. Gibbs-White
19L. DelapAston Villa Substitutes
19I. Mbaye63'for Emiliano Buendía
18T. Abraham45'for Nicolas Jackson
17A. Garnacho
47Alysson Edward45'for George Hemmings74'
44J. Manzambi63'for Ross Barkley
26L. Bogarde
13M. Ruggeri
5T. Mings25'for Pau Torres90+5'
40M. Bizot
Nottingham Forest Substitutes
9C. Wood90+1'for Liam Delap
15A. Kalimuendo
12John
25L. Netz
7C. Hudson-Odoi
6I. Sangaré82'for James Mcatee
8N. Domínguez
22R. Yates
11Igor Jesus75'for Dan Ndoye88'
Match Stats
Aston VillaNottingham Forest 54%Ball Possession46%
6Corner Kicks1
2Yellow Cards5
7Total Shots22
5Shots on Goal7
1Shots off Goal12
6Shots Inside Box14
1Shots Outside Box8
1Blocked Shots3
11Fouls16
0Offsides4
5Goalkeeper Saves5
421Total Passes360
346Passes Accurate309
82%Pass Accuracy86%
Team Comparison
Aston VillaNottingham Forest1906Elo Rating 1760
0.98Attack 0.39
1.07Defense 1.40
31%Hit Rate 0%
13.7Shots per Game 18.0
3.7Shots on Target 3.2
5.9Corners per Game 6.0
2.3Cards per Game 1.8
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+147 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.91 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Aston Villa- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.3 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Nottingham Forest- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.4 vs 0 in second half)
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Aston Villa5Wins · 50%Draws220%
Nottingham Forest3Wins · 30%
3Wins · 30%2.9Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10
Previous meetings
07/05/2026Aston VillaNottingham Forest40
30/04/2026Nottingham ForestAston Villa10
12/04/2026Nottingham ForestAston Villa11
03/01/2026Aston VillaNottingham Forest31
05/04/2025Aston VillaNottingham Forest21
14/12/2024Nottingham ForestAston Villa21
24/02/2024Aston VillaNottingham Forest42
05/11/2023Nottingham ForestAston Villa20
08/04/2023Aston VillaNottingham Forest20
10/10/2022Nottingham ForestAston Villa11
Recent Form
Aston Villa2W1D7L
08/09/2026
Club Brugge KVAston Villa
Hull CityAston VillaAston Villa
Arsenal
BrightonAston Villa
Paris Saint GermainAston Villa
Club Brugge KVAston Villa23
W05/09/2026Hull CityAston Villa00
D31/08/2026Aston VillaArsenal01
L23/08/2026BrightonAston Villa40
L15/08/2026
Borussia MönchengladbachAston Villa
12/08/2026Borussia MönchengladbachAston Villa21
LParis Saint GermainAston Villa21
L07/08/2026
Bayern MünchenAston Villa
Bayern MünchenAston Villa21
L04/08/2026
BG Pathum UnitedAston Villa
BG Pathum UnitedAston Villa13
W28/07/2026Aston Villa
Real Sociedad
Aston VillaReal Sociedad24
L25/07/2026
FC PortoAston Villa
FC PortoAston Villa21
LNottingham Forest3W2D5L
05/09/2026Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
LiverpoolNottingham ForestNottingham Forest
Leeds
Nottingham ForestTottenham00
D29/08/2026LiverpoolNottingham Forest22
D25/08/2026Nottingham ForestLeeds
22/08/2026Nottingham ForestLeeds02
LNottingham ForestLeeds01
L16/08/2026Nottingham Forest
Stade Brestois 29
Nottingham ForestStade Brestois 2920
W12/08/2026Nottingham Forest
Bayer Leverkusen
Nottingham ForestBayer Leverkusen21
W08/08/2026
BarcelonaNottingham Forest
BarcelonaNottingham Forest10
L08/08/2026
UdineseNottingham Forest
UdineseNottingham Forest10
L31/07/2026
Sporting CPNottingham Forest
Sporting CPNottingham Forest41
L31/07/2026
PortimonenseNottingham Forest
PortimonenseNottingham Forest12
WLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15:5 | +10 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26:7 | +19 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21:13 | +8 | 21 | LLLWW |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:10 | +4 | 18 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19:16 | +3 | 16 | LWLWW |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12:10 | +2 | 16 | WWLLD |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16:14 | +2 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16:11 | +5 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10:8 | +2 | 14 | WLDDL |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 13 | DDWWD |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10:11 | -1 | 12 | LWWWD |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13:16 | -3 | 12 | DLWLL |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11:11 | 0 | 11 | LDDLD |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15:20 | -5 | 11 | LDDLW |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:12 | -2 | 10 | DDWWL |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9:13 | -4 | 9 | WLDLL |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10:19 | -9 | 9 | LWLLW |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14:19 | -5 | 8 | DLLDD |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8:17 | -9 | 8 | WLDLL |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10:24 | -14 | 7 | LLLLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 26:7 | 22 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 14:10 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 16:11 | 14 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 14:17 | 13 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 14:19 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 8:17 | 8 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 10:24 | 7 |
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About the Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest in the Premier League table
In the Premier League table, Aston Villa are 10th and Nottingham Forest 16th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Aston Villa 14-17, Nottingham Forest 9-13. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Aston Villa have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.