Beşiktaş vs Marseille Prediction

Beşiktaş
4-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Marseille
Besiktas Park, Istanbul·A. Colombo 17/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.62
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseHighGap+5.2%
Beşiktaş Rest
6 days
Marseille Rest
6 days

Beşiktaş vs Marseille: the result in context

Beşiktaş beat Marseille 4-1 in the UEFA Europa League on 17 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Beşiktaş had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Marseille.

Referee A. Colombo averages 5.01 cards a game, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%1.77
X
25%4.10
2
22%4.15
Double Chance
1X
78%1.22
X2
47%2.02
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.52
No
50%2.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.56 + 1.03 = 2.59
Over 1.5
77%1.14
Over 2.5
56%1.52
Over 3.5
31%2.38
Under 1.5
23%5.00
Under 2.5
44%2.42
Under 3.5
69%1.60
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4.2 = 10.1
Over 8.5
59%1.55
Over 9.5
46%1.94
Over 10.5
36%2.51
Under 8.5
41%2.30
Under 9.5
54%1.82
Under 10.5
64%1.47
Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

10'Emmanuel AgbadouFoul
15'Ilhan FakiliAssist: Junior Olaitan
29'Keyliane AbdallahAssist: Himad Abdelli
45'Emmanuel Agbadou INTiago Djaló out
56'Václav ČernýAssist: Orkun Kökçü
58'Ulisses Garcia INEmerson Palmieri out
58'Angel Gomes INIgor Paixão out
59'Amir MurilloAssist: Orkun Kökçü
67'Neal Maupay INAmine Gouiri out
67'Derek Cornelius INNayef Aguerd out
71'Václav Černý INErnest Poku out
71'Orkun Kökçü INWilfred Ndidi out
72'Amine HaritDissent
81'Ernest PokuAssist: Junior Olaitan
82'Keyliane Abdallah INTadjidine Mmadi out
82'Junior Olaitan INOh Hyeon-gyu out
82'Ilhan Fakili INFabio Miretti out
90+5'Fabio MirettiFoul

Lineups

Beşiktaş
4-1-4-1Coach: V. Italiano
Marseille
4-2-3-1Coach: Bruno Genesio
Avg rating7.02
Avg rating6.23
A. Nübel6.71A. Nübel
A. Murillo7.362A. Murillo
E. Agbadou6.512E. Agbadou
E. Topçu7.453E. Topçu
K. Ouattara6.311K. Ouattara
S. Özcan6.76S. Özcan
V. Černý7.918V. Černý
J. Olaitan8.315J. Olaitan
O. Kökçü7.910O. Kökçü
I. Fakili8.129I. Fakili
D. Vlahović6.928D. Vlahović
J. de Lange5.812J. de Lange
T. Weah6.522T. Weah
C. Egan-Riley6.24C. Egan-Riley
D. Cornelius5.913D. Cornelius
U. Garcia5.425U. Garcia
P. Højbjerg6.423P. Højbjerg
H. Abdelli7.28H. Abdelli
K. Abdallah6.748K. Abdallah
A. Gomes6.27A. Gomes
A. Harit5.777A. Harit
N. Maupay6.311N. Maupay

Beşiktaş Substitutes

80D. Alemdar
22Taylan Bulut
35Tiago Djaló45'for Emmanuel Agbadou6.2
90S. Kılıçsoy
21F. Miretti82'for Ilhan Fakili90+5'6.0
4W. Ndidi71'for Orkun Kökçü6.3
9Oh Hyeon-Gyu82'for Junior Olaitan6.5
17E. Poku71'for Václav Černý81'7.4
33R. Yılmaz
8K. Yılmaz
58Y. Özcan
50Ü. Akdağ

Marseille Substitutes

42Nouhoum Kamissoko
9A. Gouiri67'for Neal Maupay6.4
74K. Bezahaf
14Igor Paixão58'for Angel Gomes6.7
21N. Aguerd67'for Derek Cornelius5.8
18B. Meité
46E. Mbondo
43T. Mmadi82'for Keyliane Abdallah6.6
33Emerson58'for Ulisses Garcia6.0
40J. Van Neck
92T. Vermot
29F. Moumbagna

Match Stats

BeşiktaşMarseille
54%Ball Possession46%
3Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards1
18Total Shots14
7Shots on Goal3
9Shots off Goal9
12Shots Inside Box6
6Shots Outside Box8
2Blocked Shots2
11Fouls12
1Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves3
564Total Passes458
493Passes Accurate395
12Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

BeşiktaşBeşiktaş
MarseilleMarseille
1819Elo Rating 1799
1.72Attack 2.21
1.12Defense 1.97
19%Hit Rate 83%
12.7Shots per Game 12.6
4.5Shots on Target 3.5
4.3Corners per Game 3.6
2.0Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

BeşiktaşBeşiktaş
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
MarseilleMarseille
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Referee Profile

A. Colombo142 matches

5.01Cards per match
4.75Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
27.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

A. Colombo5.01
Other referees4.51

5.01 cards a match, 0.50 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.51).

Cards come from 119 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Europa League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BenficaBenfica440013:3+1012WWWW
2BournemouthBournemouth440011:2+912WWWW
3Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC440011:3+812WWWW
4Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise431010:2+810WWDW
5JuventusJuventus431011:4+710WDWW
6Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus43104:1+310DWWW
7Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen43018:1+79LWWW
8BeşiktaşBeşiktaş421111:8+37LDWW
9Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb42115:4+17WLWD
10Levski SofiaLevski Sofia42114:3+17WWDL
11SunderlandSunderland42114:407LDWW
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen42118:9-17WWDL
13LyonLyon42116:7-17DLWW
14AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar42027:4+36LWWL
15AnderlechtAnderlecht42026:3+36WWLL
16OFIOFI42025:4+16WLLW
17RennesRennes41304:3+16DDWD
18Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia42026:7-16LLWW
19TorreenseTorreense42027:9-26WLLW
20Real SociedadReal Sociedad41219:4+55DWDL
21Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace41219:6+35DDLW
22Sparta PrahaSparta Praha41126:604LLDW
231899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim41126:604DWLL
24Sturm GrazSturm Graz41123:6-34LWLD
25CeljeCelje41125:9-44WDLL
26Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg41123:8-54LDLW
27Celta VigoCelta Vigo41034:6-23LWLL
28AC MilanAC Milan41034:7-33LLWL
29JagielloniaJagiellonia41034:7-33LLWL
30PlzenPlzen41033:7-43WLLL
31MarseilleMarseille41032:6-43WLLL
32CelticCeltic41036:11-53WLLL
33Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva40131:8-71LLLD
34LillestromLillestrom40132:10-81LLDL
35Lech PoznanLech Poznan40132:12-101LDLL
36Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia40044:14-100LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BenficaBenfica413:312
2BournemouthBournemouth411:212
3Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC411:312
4Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise410:210
5JuventusJuventus411:410
6Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus44:110
7Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen48:19
8BeşiktaşBeşiktaş411:87
9Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb45:47
10Levski SofiaLevski Sofia44:37
11SunderlandSunderland44:47
12NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen48:97
13LyonLyon46:77
14AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar47:46
15AnderlechtAnderlecht46:36
16OFIOFI45:46
17RennesRennes44:36
18Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia46:76
19TorreenseTorreense47:96
20Real SociedadReal Sociedad49:45
21Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace49:65
22Sparta PrahaSparta Praha46:64
231899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim46:64
24Sturm GrazSturm Graz43:64
25CeljeCelje45:94
26Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg43:84
27Celta VigoCelta Vigo44:63
28AC MilanAC Milan44:73
29JagielloniaJagiellonia44:73
30PlzenPlzen43:73
31MarseilleMarseille42:63
32CelticCeltic46:113
33Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva41:81
34LillestromLillestrom42:101
35Lech PoznanLech Poznan42:121
36Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia44:140
Europa League

About the Beşiktaş vs Marseille forecast

This is a UEFA Europa League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Beşiktaş and Marseille in the UEFA Europa League table

In the UEFA Europa League table, Beşiktaş are 8th and Marseille 31st, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Beşiktaş 11-8, Marseille 2-6. The full standings are on the UEFA Europa League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Marseille have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Beşiktaş and Marseille have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.