Monaco vs Marseille Prediction
France · Regular Season - 2
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 8.5
1.50
SignalGOODModel43%SurpriseMediumGap+11.2%
Monaco Rest
3 days
Marseille Rest
9 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
143%2.27
X29%3.65
228%3.00
Double Chance
1X72%1.38
X257%1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes57%1.48
No43%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.6 + 1.25 = 2.85
Over 1.579%1.17
Over 2.556%1.57
Over 3.535%2.44
Under 1.521%4.70
Under 2.544%2.38
Under 3.565%1.56
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4.8 = 10.3
Over 8.572%1.50
Over 9.567%1.89
Over 10.541%2.38
Under 8.528%2.40
Under 9.533%1.86
Under 10.559%1.51
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.5 = 4.3
Over 3.561%1.67
Over 4.540%2.15
Under 3.539%2.13
Under 4.560%1.61
Match Events
13'P. BrunnerAssist: A. Golovin
42'D. ZakariaRoughing
43'L. CamaraRoughing
46'H. Abdelli INT. Nnadi out
46'Q. Timber INK. Abdallah out
54'P. BrunnerAssist: E. Dier
59'G. Kondogbia INN. Aguerd out
74'T. Nnadi INN. Maupay out
82'A. Golovin INM. Abline out
82'M. Coulibaly INA. Soubeir out
82'P. Brunner INM. Biereth out
85'S. Idumbo INM. Detourbet out
85'A. Gomes INF. Moumbagna out
89'NazinhoTripping
90+2'L. HradeckyDelay of game
Lineups
MonacoMarseille
4-2-3-1Coach: Bruno GenesioAvg ratingAvg rating
1L. Hrádecký
2Vanderson
72S. Sané
15E. Dier
20Nazinho
8L. Camara
C6D. Zakaria
28M. Coulibaly
10A. Golovin
17S. Idumbo Muzambo
29P. Brunner
12J. De Lange
C22T. Weah
4C. Jaden Egan-Riley
19G. Kondogbia
33Emerson
8H. Abdelli
23P. Højbjerg
77A. Harit
7A. Gomes
27Q. Timber
9A. GouiriMonaco Substitutes
46Anis Soubeir82'for M. Coulibaly
14Mika Biereth82'for P. Brunner
11Matthis Abline82'for A. Golovin
7Mathys Detourbet85'for S. Idumbo
16Philipp Köhn
4Jordan Teze
5Thilo Kehrer
13Christian Mawissa
47Safouane Benzahra
Marseille Substitutes
48Keyliane Abdallah46'for Q. Timber
6Tochukwu Nnadi46'for H. Abdelli74'for N. Maupay
21Nayef Aguerd59'for G. Kondogbia
11Neal Maupay74'replaced by T. Nnadi
29Faris Moumbagna85'for A. Gomes
92Théo Vermot
13Derek Cornelius
25Ulisses Garcia
43Tadjidine Mmadi
Match Stats
MonacoMarseille 36%Ball Possession64%
5Corner Kicks7
4Yellow Cards0
11Total Shots13
5Shots on Goal2
4Shots off Goal6
7Shots Inside Box7
4Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots5
9Fouls10
3Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves3
356Total Passes648
310Passes Accurate591
87%Pass Accuracy91%
Team Comparison
MonacoMarseille1883Elo Rating 1756
1.57Attack 2.33
2.09Defense 1.41
39%Hit Rate 61%
15.0Shots per Game 12.8
5.4Shots on Target 4.2
4.5Corners per Game 4.9
2.7Cards per Game 1.6
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+127 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.85 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Monaco- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Marseille- Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.9 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Monaco4Wins · 40%Draws220%
Marseille4Wins · 40%
4Wins · 40%2.9Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10
Previous meetings
05/04/2026MonacoMarseille21
14/12/2025MarseilleMonaco10
12/04/2025MonacoMarseille30
01/12/2024MarseilleMonaco21
27/01/2024MarseilleMonaco22
30/09/2023MonacoMarseille32
28/01/2023MarseilleMonaco11
13/11/2022MonacoMarseille23
06/03/2022MarseilleMonaco01
11/09/2021MonacoMarseille02
Recent Form
Monaco6W1D3L
27/08/2026Monaco
Gornik Zabrze
Le HavreMonacoGornik ZabrzeMonaco
MonacoGornik Zabrze41
W23/08/2026Le HavreMonaco01
W20/08/2026Gornik ZabrzeMonaco23
W14/08/2026
CoventryMonaco
CoventryMonaco20
L09/08/2026
LiverpoolMonaco
LiverpoolMonaco23
W06/08/2026Monaco
Getafe
MonacoGetafe10
W31/07/2026Monaco
Cercle Brugge
MonacoCercle Brugge22
D25/07/2026
Sporting CPMonaco
Sporting CPMonaco20
L18/07/2026Monaco
Saint-Priest
MonacoSaint-Priest52
W17/05/2026
StrasbourgMonaco
StrasbourgMonaco54
LMarseille6W1D3L
21/08/2026MarseilleStrasbourg
MarseilleStrasbourg40
W14/08/2026Marseille
Atletico Madrid
MarseilleAtletico Madrid12
L09/08/2026Marseille
Athletic Club
MarseilleAthletic Club31
W30/07/2026Marseille
Nimes
MarseilleNimes21
W17/05/2026Marseille
Rennes
MarseilleRennes31
W10/05/2026Le HavreMarseille
Le HavreMarseille01
W02/05/2026
NantesMarseille
NantesMarseille30
L26/04/2026Marseille
Nice
MarseilleNice11
D18/04/2026
LorientMarseille
LorientMarseille20
L10/04/2026Marseille
Metz
MarseilleMetz31
WReferee Profile
3.93Cards per match
3.64Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
3.94 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.00).
Cards come from 167 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | +11 | 20 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | +6 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | +8 | 17 | WLWLW |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16:10 | +6 | 17 | WLWLW |
| 5 | Rennes | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20:19 | +1 | 16 | LWLWL |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 20:13 | +7 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 7 | Monaco | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12:10 | +2 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 8 | Nice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13:12 | +1 | 14 | WWLWW |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16:13 | +3 | 13 | LWWWL |
| 10 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 12 | DWWLD |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 10 | LDWDW |
| 12 | Strasbourg | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 17:19 | -2 | 10 | WLLLL |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 13:23 | -10 | 10 | LDWLW |
| 14 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | +2 | 9 | LDWLL |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:17 | -8 | 8 | LDLLW |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7:16 | -9 | 8 | WDLLL |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:18 | -7 | 7 | LDLLW |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9:20 | -11 | 2 | LLLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 | Lyon | 9 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 9 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 | Rennes | 9 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 | Monaco | 9 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 | Nice | 9 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 | Lorient | 8 | 7:6 | 12 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 9 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 12 | Strasbourg | 9 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 9 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 14 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 14:12 | 9 |
| 15 | Angers | 9 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 9 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 9:20 | 2 |
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About the Monaco vs Marseille forecast
The forecasts for this Ligue 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Monaco and Marseille in the Ligue 1 table
In the Ligue 1 table, Monaco (7th) and Marseille (6th) are level on 15 points. League goal record so far: Monaco 12-10, Marseille 20-13. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Monaco have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.