Bolívar vs Sao Paulo Prediction

Bolívar
1-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Sao Paulo
Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz·Wilmar Roldan, Colombia 12/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.4 / 10
Value Analysis
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.29
SignalSTRONGModel45%SurpriseMediumGap+12.0%
Bolívar Rest
3 days
Sao Paulo Rest
3 days

Bolívar vs Sao Paulo: result, form and history

Bolívar and Sao Paulo drew 1-1 in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 12 Aug 2026. Bolívar had gone in with the better form, having won 4 of their previous five against 1 for Sao Paulo.

Sao Paulo tend to win more corners, 6.8 a game to 3.4 for Bolívar.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%1.80
X
28%3.55
2
22%4.50
Double Chance
1X
78%1.20
X2
50%1.99
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%1.85
No
56%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.7 + 1.03 = 2.73
Over 1.5
72%1.33
Over 2.5
40%2.02
Over 3.5
20%3.50
Under 1.5
28%3.25
Under 2.5
60%1.80
Under 3.5
80%1.29
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 3.9 = 9.1
Over 8.5
57%1.30
Over 9.5
44%1.52
Over 10.5
33%1.85
Under 8.5
43%3.10
Under 9.5
56%2.32
Under 10.5
67%1.85
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.8 = 4.8
Over 3.5
73%1.32
Over 4.5
52%1.72
Under 3.5
27%2.80
Under 4.5
48%2.00

Match Events

23'Robert ArboledaAssist: Iago Borduchi
50'Iago BorduchiRoughing
54'J. Sagredo IND. Batallini out
61'Iago Borduchi INWendell out
63'C. A. Melgar
71'Marcos Antonio INDanielzinho out
71'Luciano INFerreira out
76'M. Cauteruccio INB. Miranda out
76'Pato Rodriguez INJ. Velasquez out
83'D. Bobadilla INCauly out
83'Lucas Ramon INButa out
85'Robson Matheus INB. Arce out
85'E. Saavedra INE. Vaca Moreno out
90+6'ButaHolding

Lineups

Bolívar
4-4-2Coach: Alejandro Restrepo
Sao Paulo
3-5-1-1Coach: Junior Dorival
Avg rating6.74
Avg rating6.69
Carlos Lampe6.51C. Lampe
Jesús Sagredo6.22J. Sagredo
Xavier Arreaga7.23X. Arreaga
Santiago Echeverria6.25S. Echeverria
José SagredoC6.64J. Sagredo
Robson Matheus7.014R. Matheus
Carlos Melgar8.080C. Melgar
Erwin Saavedra6.626E. Saavedra
Patricio Rodríguez7.217P. Rodríguez
Dairon Asprilla6.527D. Asprilla
Martín Cauteruccio6.69M. Cauteruccio
Rafael5.923Rafael
Newton6.628Newton
Robert Arboleda7.65R. Arboleda
Domingos Duarte6.622D. Duarte
Lucas Ramon6.519L. Ramon
Damián Bobadilla6.616D. Bobadilla
Pablo Maia6.929P. Maia
Marcos Antônio6.98M. Antônio
Iago Borduchi7.212I. Borduchi
Luciano6.310Luciano
Jonathan CalleriC6.99J. Calleri

Bolívar Substitutes

99Damián Batallini54'for J. Sagredo6.9
7Jhon Velásquez76'for Pato Rodriguez6.6
11Bruno Miranda76'for M. Cauteruccio6.5
6Ervin Vaca85'for E. Saavedra6.6
10Billy Arce85'for Robson Matheus6.7
13Diego Méndez
35Escleizon Freita
8Luis Paz
33Fernando Mena
16Leonardo Zabala
20Carlos Sejas
77Dorny Romero

Sao Paulo Substitutes

18Wendell61'for Iago Borduchi6.5
11Ferreirinha71'for Luciano6.5
94Danielzinho71'for Marcos Antonio6.9
20Aurélio Buta83'replaced by Lucas Ramon90+6'6.9
80Cauly83'for D. Bobadilla6.3
31Carlos Coronel
54Luis Osorio
35Sabino
34Tetê
27Victor Sá
49Ryan Francisco
17André Silva

Match Stats

BolívarSao Paulo
64%Ball Possession36%
8Corner Kicks4
0Yellow Cards2
22Total Shots11
4Shots on Goal2
13Shots off Goal6
9Shots Inside Box5
13Shots Outside Box6
5Blocked Shots3
7Fouls11
2Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves3
543Total Passes314
477Passes Accurate227
88%Pass Accuracy72%

Team Comparison

BolívarBolívar
Sao PauloSao Paulo
1715Elo Rating 1666
1.42Attack 1.10
2.08Defense 1.98
83%Hit Rate 31%
17.1Shots per Game 15.5
6.0Shots on Target 4.5
3.4Corners per Game 6.8
3.1Cards per Game 3.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

BolívarBolívar
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
Sao PauloSao Paulo
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break

Recent Form

BolívarBolívar
6W0D4L
09/08/2026
AuroraBolívar
24
W
06/08/2026
BolívarOriente Petrolero
21
W
02/08/2026
Always ReadyBolívar
10
L
31/07/2026
GremioBolívar
01
W
26/07/2026
BolívarReal Potosí
21
W
24/07/2026
BolívarGremio
32
W
18/07/2026
BolívarGuabirá
40
W
28/05/2026
BolívarIndepend. Rivadavia
13
L
20/05/2026
FluminenseBolívar
21
L
16/05/2026
Universitario de VintoBolívar
32
L
Sao PauloSao Paulo
1W3D6L
08/08/2026
GremioSao Paulo
21
L
26/07/2026
FlamengoSao Paulo
11
D
23/07/2026
Sao PauloAtletico Paranaense
12
L
01/06/2026
RemoSao Paulo
10
L
27/05/2026
Sao PauloBoston River
20
W
23/05/2026
Sao PauloBotafogo
11
D
20/05/2026
Sao PauloMillonarios
11
D
17/05/2026
FluminenseSao Paulo
21
L
14/05/2026
JuventudeSao Paulo
31
L
10/05/2026
CorinthiansSao Paulo
32
L

Referee Profile

Wilmar Roldan321 matches

5.42Cards per match
4.98Yellow cards per match
0.44Red cards per match
21.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Wilmar Roldan5.42
Other referees5.53

5.42 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.53).

Cards come from 293 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Sao PauloSao Paulo63306:1+512WDDDW
2O'HigginsO'Higgins63128:6+210WLDWL
3MillonariosMillonarios62227:708LDWDW
4Boston RiverBoston River61055:12-73LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Sao PauloSao Paulo66:112
2O'HigginsO'Higgins68:610
3MillonariosMillonarios67:78
4Boston RiverBoston River65:123
Promotion

About the Bolívar vs Sao Paulo forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Bolívar and Sao Paulo have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.