Gremio vs Sao Paulo Prediction
Brazil · Regular Season - 22
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.35
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap+0.1%
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.80
SignalSOLIDModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+10.5%
Gremio Rest
2 days
Sao Paulo Rest
12 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
146%2.30
X28%3.21
226%3.15
Double Chance
1X74%1.35
X254%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes53%1.82
No47%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.3 + 1.05 = 2.35
Over 1.571%1.35
Over 2.548%2.10
Over 3.525%3.70
Under 1.529%3.10
Under 2.552%1.72
Under 3.575%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4.2 = 9.9
Over 8.560%1.48
Over 9.548%1.85
Over 10.537%2.29
Under 8.540%2.41
Under 9.552%1.87
Under 10.563%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 2.4 = 4.8
Over 3.569%1.27
Over 4.551%1.47
Under 3.531%3.50
Under 4.549%2.38
Match Events
45'Marcos AntonioAssist: Luciano
45+5'M. VillasantiUnsportsmanlike conduct
46'J. Cabral INF. Amuzu out
48'WallaceAssist: Carlos Vinicius
54'J. Nardoni INDodi out
70'Danielzinho IND. Bobadilla out
71'Ferreira INCauly out
75'LucianoUnsportsmanlike conduct
77'Jonathan Calleri INAndre Silva out
78'Carlos Vinicius INM. Braithwaite out
81'Diego CaitoTripping
86'C. Pavon
89'Wendell INVictor Sa out
89'Pablo Maia ING. Santana out
90+1'MarlonUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+1'M. Villasanti INWalter Kannemann out
90+1'C. Pavon INL. Perez out
90+2'Andre SilvaUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+5'Walter KannemannUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+5'Robert ArboledaUnsportsmanlike conduct
Lineups
GremioSao Paulo
4-2-3-1Coach: Junior DorivalAvg ratingAvg rating
1Weverton
27D. Caito
6G. Martins
82Wallace
23Marlon
19E. Noriega
7C. Pavon
C20M. Villasanti
5J. Nardoni
77J. Cabral
95C. Vinicius
23Rafael
19L. Ramon
5R. Arboleda
54L. Osorio
18Wendell
94Danielzinho
29P. Maia
8M. Antonio
10Luciano
11Ferreira
C9J. CalleriGremio Substitutes
12Gabriel Grando
22M. Braithwaite78'for Carlos Vinicius
14Marcos Rocha
17Dodi54'for J. Nardoni
9F. Amuzu46'for J. Cabral
99J. Enamorado
38Caio Paulista
30Matheus Nascimento
4Walter Kannemann90+1'for M. Villasanti90+5'
3Wagner Leonardo
33L. Perez90+1'for C. Pavon
37Gabriel Mec
Sao Paulo Substitutes
31Carlos Coronel
20Buta
22D. Duarte
80Cauly71'for Ferreira
27Victor Sa89'for Wendell
17Andre Silva77'for Jonathan Calleri90+2'
28Newton
35Sabino
34P. dos Santos
12Iago Borduchi
16D. Bobadilla70'for Danielzinho
43G. Santana89'for Pablo Maia
Match Stats
GremioSao Paulo 48%Ball Possession52%
7Corner Kicks7
4Yellow Cards3
12Total Shots18
5Shots on Goal5
3Shots off Goal8
8Shots Inside Box12
4Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots5
12Fouls19
2Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves3
421Total Passes462
364Passes Accurate392
86%Pass Accuracy85%
Team Comparison
GremioSao Paulo1668Elo Rating 1666
1.56Attack 1.10
1.63Defense 1.98
59%Hit Rate 31%
12.3Shots per Game 15.5
4.3Shots on Target 4.5
5.9Corners per Game 6.8
2.0Cards per Game 3.3
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend44% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Gremio- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Sao Paulo- Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
- Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.3 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings, all competitions
Gremio4Wins · 44%Draws00%
Sao Paulo5Wins · 56%
5Wins · 56%2.6Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
67%3+ goals6 of 9
Previous meetings
12/02/2026Sao PauloGremio20
17/10/2025GremioSao Paulo20
18/05/2025Sao PauloGremio21
01/12/2024GremioSao Paulo21
18/07/2024Sao PauloGremio10
21/10/2023Sao PauloGremio30
04/06/2023GremioSao Paulo21
03/12/2021GremioSao Paulo30
15/08/2021Sao PauloGremio21
Recent Form
Gremio2W3D5L
06/08/2026Gremio
Mirassol
02/08/2026GremioMirassol10
WMirassolGremio11
D31/07/2026Gremio
Bolívar01
L26/07/2026Gremio
Fluminense11
D24/07/2026BolívarGremio32
L18/07/2026MirassolGremio21
L12/07/2026Gremio
Cruzeiro
GremioCruzeiro13
L30/05/2026Gremio
Corinthians
GremioCorinthians13
L27/05/2026Gremio
Atletico Torque
GremioAtletico Torque22
D24/05/2026Gremio
Santos
GremioSantos32
WSao Paulo1W4D5L
26/07/2026
FlamengoSao PauloSao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
FlamengoSao Paulo11
D23/07/2026Sao PauloAtletico Paranaense12
L01/06/2026
RemoSao Paulo
RemoSao Paulo10
L27/05/2026Sao Paulo
Boston River
Sao PauloBoston River20
W23/05/2026Sao Paulo
Botafogo
Sao PauloBotafogo11
D20/05/2026Sao Paulo
Millonarios
Sao PauloMillonarios11
D17/05/2026FluminenseSao Paulo
FluminenseSao Paulo21
L14/05/2026
JuventudeSao Paulo
JuventudeSao Paulo31
L10/05/2026CorinthiansSao Paulo
CorinthiansSao Paulo32
L08/05/2026
O'HigginsSao Paulo
O'HigginsSao Paulo00
DReferee Profile
5.00Cards per match
4.77Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
27.0Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.00 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.89).
Cards come from 13 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71:29 | +42 | 76 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62:23 | +39 | 73 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55:48 | +7 | 60 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55:42 | +13 | 57 | WWLLL |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51:43 | +8 | 54 | LLDLW |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50:45 | +5 | 53 | LWDLW |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44:40 | +4 | 50 | LLLWW |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44:39 | +5 | 47 | WWLDW |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50:49 | +1 | 47 | LDDWL |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39:39 | 0 | 44 | DLDWW |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46:53 | -7 | 42 | WLLWD |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40:51 | -11 | 42 | LWLLD |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43:50 | -7 | 41 | WLWLD |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39:48 | -9 | 40 | WLDWL |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35:51 | -16 | 38 | LLDDL |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38:42 | -4 | 38 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:42 | -6 | 37 | DWLDL |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38:47 | -9 | 37 | LWWLD |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37:57 | -20 | 29 | LWLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33:68 | -35 | 21 | LLWLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 71:29 | 76 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 62:23 | 73 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 55:48 | 60 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 55:42 | 57 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 51:43 | 54 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 50:45 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 44:40 | 50 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 44:39 | 47 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 50:49 | 47 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 39:39 | 44 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 46:53 | 42 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 40:51 | 42 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 43:50 | 41 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 39:48 | 40 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 35:51 | 38 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 38:42 | 38 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 36:42 | 37 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 38:47 | 37 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 37:57 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 33:68 | 21 |
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About the Gremio vs Sao Paulo forecast
The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
Gremio and Sao Paulo in the Serie A table
In the Serie A table, Sao Paulo are 10th and Gremio 18th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Gremio 38-47, Sao Paulo 39-39. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Gremio have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.