Flamengo vs Sao Paulo Prediction

Flamengo
1-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Sao Paulo
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro· Anderson Daronco, Brazil 26/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.47
SignalHIGHModel56%RiskMediumGap+12.5%
Flamengo Rest
3 days
Sao Paulo Rest
3 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
63%1.45
X
21%4.40
2
16%7.00
Double Chance
1X
84%1.10
X2
37%2.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.95
No
47%1.76
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.61 + 0.95 = 2.56
Over 1.5
72%1.25
Over 2.5
52%1.83
Over 3.5
28%3.10
Under 1.5
28%3.80
Under 2.5
48%2.00
Under 3.5
72%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.4 + 3.8 = 10.3
Over 8.5
60%1.35
Over 9.5
49%1.66
Over 10.5
37%2.03
Under 8.5
40%2.83
Under 9.5
51%2.10
Under 10.5
63%1.70
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.9 = 4.7
Over 3.5
69%1.40
Over 4.5
51%1.87
Under 3.5
31%2.66
Under 4.5
49%1.83

Match Events

57'Leo PereiraAssist: Jorginho
58'Lorran ING. de Arrascaeta out
63'Alex SandroTripping
66'Artur INFerreira out
67'Danielzinho INVictor Sa out
69'WendellRoughing
71'Jonathan CalleriAssist: Luis Osorio
79'Bruno Henrique INEverton out
88'Pedro INWallace Yan out
88'E. Pulgar INEvertton Araujo out
89'Jonathan CalleriHolding
90'Luciano INAndre Silva out
90+1'Goal Disallowed - offsideSamuel Lino
90+5'Wendell INSabino out
90+12'Marcos Antonio

Lineups

Flamengo
4-2-3-1Coach: Leonardo Jardim
Sao Paulo
4-4-2Coach: Junior Dorival
Agustín Rossi1A. RossiAgustín Rossi
Emerson Royal22E. RoyalEmerson Royal
Vitão44VitãoVitão
Léo Pereira4L. PereiraLéo Pereira
Alex Sandro26A. SandroAlex Sandro
Erick Pulgar5E. PulgarErick Pulgar
Jorginho21JorginhoJorginho
Lorran99LorranLorran
Samuel Lino16S. LinoSamuel Lino
Bruno Henrique27B. HenriqueBruno Henrique
Pedro9PedroPedro
Rafael23RafaelRafael
Lucas Ramon19L. RamonLucas Ramon
Robert Arboleda5R. ArboledaRobert Arboleda
Luis Osorio54L. OsorioLuis Osorio
Wendell18WendellWendell
Artur37ArturArtur
Pablo Maia29P. MaiaPablo Maia
Danielzinho94DanielzinhoDanielzinho
Marcos Antônio8M. AntônioMarcos Antônio
Jonathan Calleri9J. CalleriJonathan Calleri
Luciano10LucianoLuciano

Flamengo Substitutes

42AndrewG
2Guillermo VarelaD
61João VictorD
77Johnny GoesD
13DaniloD
6Ayrton LucasD
11EvertonF
8Saúl ÑíguezM
10Giorgian de ArrascaetaM
52Evertton AraujoM
79Caio JoshuaM
64Wallace YanF

Sao Paulo Substitutes

31Carlos CoronelG
35SabinoD
56Nicolas BosshardtD
53IsacD
20Aurélio ButaD
27Victor SáF
34TetêF
11FerreirinhaF
48Djhordney FerreiraM
80CaulyM
43Gustavo SantanaM
17André SilvaF

Match Stats

FlamengoSao Paulo
50%Ball Possession50%
0Corner Kicks1
3Total Shots2
1Shots on Goal0
2Shots off Goal2
3Shots Inside Box2
0Shots Outside Box0
0Blocked Shots0
9Fouls8
1Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves1
240Total Passes238
208Passes Accurate201
87%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

FlamengoFlamengo
Sao PauloSao Paulo
1898Elo Rating 1665
1.56Attack 0.88
2.50Defense 1.94
73%Hit Rate 31%
16.3Shots per Game 13.7
4.9Shots on Target 4.2
9.3Corners per Game 6.6
2.5Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+233 Elo
📈BTTS Trend64% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

FlamengoFlamengo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.3 in first half)
Sao PauloSao Paulo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Flamengo 34%Draw 23%44% Sao Paulo
2.7Avg Goals
64%BTTS Rate
64%Over 2.5

Recent Form

FlamengoFlamengo
4W1D0L
23/07/2026
Chapecoense-scFlamengo
04
W
18/07/2026
FlamengoOlimpia
42
W
11/07/2026
BenficaFlamengo
12
W
08/07/2026
FlamengoLausanne
20
W
03/07/2026
FlamengoRiver Plate
22
D
Sao PauloSao Paulo
1W2D2L
23/07/2026
Sao PauloAtletico Paranaense
12
L
01/06/2026
RemoSao Paulo
10
L
27/05/2026
Sao PauloBoston River
20
W
23/05/2026
Sao PauloBotafogo
11
D
20/05/2026
Sao PauloMillonarios
11
D

Referee Profile

Anderson Daronco, Brazil · 29 matches analysed

4.3Avg Yellows
4.5Avg Cards
26.4Avg Fouls
Stricter than 49% of referees analysed

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo27176453:22+3157WWWWL
2PalmeirasPalmeiras28169347:21+2657DWDDW
3FluminenseFluminense28139644:36+848WLWDW
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense27137741:31+1046DLDWD
5BahiaBahia271210542:33+946WWWWD
6CruzeiroCruzeiro28136942:40+245WLWLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG27117936:32+440DWLWD
8SantosSantos27108941:40+138WWWWD
9CoritibaCoritiba281081037:43-638LDLWW
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino261061032:29+336DLLWD
11Sao PauloSao Paulo271061132:30+236WLWWL
12BotafogoBotafogo28981141:45-435LWDDL
13VitoriaVitoria28961328:42-1433LDWLL
14CorinthiansCorinthians28881229:32-332LLLLL
15MirassolMirassol28881233:42-932WDWLD
16Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama27871234:41-731WWLWL
17GremioGremio28781330:38-829DLLLW
18InternacionalInternacional286101230:36-628LWLLD
19RemoRemo28581532:47-1523LLLLL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc27391529:53-2418DLWLW
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo2753:2257
2PalmeirasPalmeiras2847:2157
3FluminenseFluminense2844:3648
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense2741:3146
5BahiaBahia2742:3346
6CruzeiroCruzeiro2842:4045
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG2736:3240
8SantosSantos2741:4038
9CoritibaCoritiba2837:4338
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino2632:2936
11Sao PauloSao Paulo2732:3036
12BotafogoBotafogo2841:4535
13VitoriaVitoria2828:4233
14CorinthiansCorinthians2829:3232
15MirassolMirassol2833:4232
16Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama2734:4131
17GremioGremio2830:3829
18InternacionalInternacional2830:3628
19RemoRemo2832:4723
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc2729:5318
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Flamengo vs Sao Paulo Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Serie A fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Serie A

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Key Factors for This Match

Flamengo and Sao Paulo have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.7 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.