Santos vs Macara Prediction

Santos
2-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Macara
Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos·Kevin Ortega, Peru 14/08/2026
SantosSantos
2-1
Finished
MacaraMacara

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.4 / 10
Value Analysis
81%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.33
SignalSTRONGModel53%SurpriseHighGap+12.3%
Santos Rest
4 days
Macara Rest
4 days

Santos vs Macara: the result in context

Santos beat Macara 2-1 in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 13 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Macara had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Santos.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
64%1.36
X
23%4.61
2
13%9.00
Double Chance
1X
87%1.06
X2
36%2.99
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%2.14
No
56%1.65
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.65 + 0.9 = 2.55
Over 1.5
72%1.25
Over 2.5
41%1.83
Over 3.5
21%3.05
Under 1.5
28%3.70
Under 2.5
59%1.95
Under 3.5
79%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 3.8 = 9.9
Over 8.5
58%1.37
Over 9.5
45%1.64
Over 10.5
35%2.02
Under 8.5
42%2.81
Under 9.5
55%2.10
Under 10.5
65%1.71
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.6 + 2.9 = 5.5
Over 3.5
75%1.26
Over 4.5
64%1.62
Under 3.5
25%3.05
Under 4.5
36%2.10

Match Events

5'F. PosseAssist: M. Viera
25'Gabriel Menino IND. Fernandes out
42'Gabriel Bontempo INB. Rollheiser out
44'Gabriel BarbosaAssist: Neymar
45+5'M. AyalaTripping
46'M. Ayala INJ. Mohor out
56'Goal Disallowed - offsideGabriel Barbosa
62'G. EscobarFoul
70'M. Miranda INM. Tello out
73'J. CazaresRoughing
76'Willian AraoAssist: Neymar
77'Gabriel BarbosaUnsportsmanlike conduct
77'R. RodriguezUnsportsmanlike conduct
80'J. EstacioFoul
82'A. BarrealFoul
83'A. Barreal INRony out
84'J. Estacio INJ. Klinger out
85'A. I. Campana INC. Caicedo out
90'J. MohorRoughing
90+2'D. BolanosTripping
90+4'F. Posse INL. Ferro out
90+5'RonyFoul

Lineups

Santos
4-2-3-1Coach: Cuca
Macara
4-3-3Coach: Guillermo Sanguinetti
Avg rating6.98
Avg rating6.53
Gabriel Brazão6.377G. Brazão
Gabriel Menino6.625G. Menino
Willian Arão8.315W. Arão
Luan Peres6.614L. Peres
Gonzalo Escobar6.031G. Escobar
Christian Oliva7.028C. Oliva
João Schmidt7.95J. Schmidt
Gabriel Bontempo6.98G. Bontempo
NeymarC7.610Neymar
Álvaro Barreal7.222Á. Barreal
Gabriel Barbosa7.39G. Barbosa
Rodrigo Rodríguez7.21R. Rodríguez
Denilson Bolaños6.225D. Bolaños
Santiago Etchebarne6.221S. Etchebarne
José Luis MarrufoC6.214J. Luis Marrufo
Luis Ayala6.213L. Ayala
Jean Carlos Estacio6.35J. Carlos Estacio
Jose Cazares7.216J. Cazares
Matías Miranda6.710M. Miranda
Agustin Campana6.028A. Campana
Franco Posse7.39F. Posse
Mateo Viera6.620M. Viera

Santos Substitutes

27Davizinho25'for Gabriel Menino7.5
32Benjamín Rollheiser42'for Gabriel Bontempo6.2
1Diogenes
34João Paulo
26João Paulo Ananias
98Adonis Frías
81Samuel Mendes
30Miguelito
17Gustavo Caballero
16Thaciano
7Robinho Júnior
11Rony83'for A. Barreal90+5'6.3

Macara Substitutes

27Jordán Mohor46'for M. Ayala90'6.3
12Darwin Cuero
26Marlon Medranda
4John Jiménez
3Juan Espinoza
77Jeison Chalá
30Tommy Chamba
87Jose Klinger84'for J. Estacio6.5
15Martin Tello70'for M. Miranda6.3
50Carlos Caicedo85'for A. I. Campana6.7
22Luca Ferro90+4'for F. Posse

Match Stats

SantosMacara
71%Ball Possession29%
5Corner Kicks1
4Yellow Cards6
13Total Shots6
8Shots on Goal1
3Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box2
4Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots2
8Fouls21
2Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves6
581Total Passes238
485Passes Accurate151
83%Pass Accuracy63%

Team Comparison

SantosSantos
MacaraMacara
1753Elo Rating 1713
0.94Attack 1.91
1.82Defense 2.63
17%Hit Rate 100%
17.0Shots per Game 13.5
5.9Shots on Target 6.8
5.6Corners per Game 4.3
3.0Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

SantosSantos
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
MacaraMacara
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.8 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

SantosSantos
5W2D3L
09/08/2026
SantosAtletico Paranaense
02
L
05/08/2026
RemoSantos
01
W
02/08/2026
SantosRemo
00
D
29/07/2026
SantosUCV
42
W
25/07/2026
SantosChapecoense-sc
22
D
22/07/2026
UCVSantos
14
W
17/07/2026
BotafogoSantos
21
L
31/05/2026
SantosVitoria
31
W
27/05/2026
SantosDeportivo Cuenca
30
W
24/05/2026
GremioSantos
32
L

Referee Profile

Kevin Ortega199 matches

5.41Cards per match
5.08Yellow cards per match
0.33Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Kevin Ortega5.41
Other referees5.26

5.41 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.26).

Cards come from 185 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1MacaraMacara62406:3+310DDDWW
2TigreTigre62318:5+39WDDWL
3America de CaliAmerica de Cali62316:5+19DDWLW
4Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico60242:9-72LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1MacaraMacara66:310
2TigreTigre68:59
3America de CaliAmerica de Cali66:59
4Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico62:92

Group D

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Deportivo RecoletaDeportivo Recoleta61506:5+18WDDDD
2SantosSantos61418:6+27WDDDD
3San LorenzoSan Lorenzo61416:5+17LDDDW
4Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca61323:7-46LDDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Deportivo RecoletaDeportivo Recoleta66:58
2SantosSantos68:67
3San LorenzoSan Lorenzo66:57
4Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca63:76
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About the Santos vs Macara forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Macara have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Santos and Macara have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.