Botafogo vs Fluminense Prediction

Botafogo
1-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Fluminense
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro· Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil 09/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.39
SignalSOLIDModel45%RiskMediumGap-0.1%
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.56
SignalGOODModel43%RiskMediumGap+12.5%
Botafogo Rest
13 days
Fluminense Rest
2 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%2.41
X
28%3.19
2
28%2.98
Double Chance
1X
72%1.39
X2
56%1.53
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.70
No
47%2.04
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.29 + 1.06 = 2.35
Over 1.5
71%1.29
Over 2.5
48%1.96
Over 3.5
26%3.35
Under 1.5
29%3.40
Under 2.5
52%1.85
Under 3.5
74%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.3 = 9.1
Over 8.5
53%1.50
Over 9.5
40%1.80
Over 10.5
29%2.22
Under 8.5
47%2.44
Under 9.5
60%1.91
Under 10.5
71%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.3 = 4.8
Over 3.5
69%-
Over 4.5
51%1.31
Under 3.5
31%-
Under 4.5
49%2.88

Match Events

44'Alex Telles
54'Ignacio
58'IgnacioAssist: K. Serna
59'Kauan Toledo INJ. Barrera out
59'L. M. Villalba Jaume INMatheus Martins out
68'N. FerraresiUnsportsmanlike conduct
70'K. Serna INA. Canobbio out
70'PH Ganso INHercules out
70'Alex Telles INPaulinho out
76'NonatoFoul
77'Samuel XavierUnsportsmanlike conduct
79'Y. Soteldo INL. Acosta out
79'Nonato INJ. Savarino out
85'R. Castillo INHulk out
85'J. Barrera INL. E. Jales do Nascimento out
85'A. Montoro INDanilo Pereira out
90+2'G. Justino
90+4'Marcal
90+5'Marcal

Lineups

Botafogo
4-2-3-1Coach: Franclim Carvalho
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Coach: Francisco Zubeldia Luis
Warleson17WarlesonWarleson
Vitinho2VitinhoVitinho
Gabriel Justino34G. JustinoGabriel Justino
Nahuel Ferraresi5N. FerraresiNahuel Ferraresi
Alex Telles13A. TellesAlex Telles
Cristian Medina6C. MedinaCristian Medina
Danilo Santos8D. SantosDanilo Santos
Lucas Villalba77L. VillalbaLucas Villalba
Álvaro Montoro10Á. MontoroÁlvaro Montoro
Kauan Toledo59K. ToledoKauan Toledo
Arthur Cabral19A. CabralArthur Cabral
Fábio1FábioFábio
Samuel Xavier2S. XavierSamuel Xavier
Ignácio4IgnácioIgnácio
Jemmes44JemmesJemmes
Renê6RenêRenê
Otávio94OtávioOtávio
Nonato16NonatoNonato
Yeferson Soteldo30Y. SoteldoYeferson Soteldo
Ganso10GansoGanso
Kevin Serna90K. SernaKevin Serna
Rodrigo Castillo19R. CastilloRodrigo Castillo

Botafogo Substitutes

14Jordan BarreraM
11Matheus MartinsF
29PaulinhoD
9DaniloF
79Lucas EmanuelF
12Gabriel BatistaG
33Lucas MonzónD
4Mateo PonteD
21MarçalD
88EdenilsonM
91Domingos AndradeM
37Kadir BarríaF

Fluminense Substitutes

35HérculesM
17Agustín CanobbioF
32Luciano AcostaM
11Jefferson SavarinoF
7HulkF
27Marcelo PitalugaG
23GugaD
13Guilherme AranaD
21Igor RabelloD
8MartinelliM
28Riquelme FelipeF
14Germán CanoF

Match Stats

BotafogoFluminense
41%Ball Possession59%
7Corner Kicks7
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
20Total Shots14
7Shots on Goal4
7Shots off Goal5
9Shots Inside Box11
11Shots Outside Box3
6Blocked Shots5
16Fouls19
0Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves6
324Total Passes471
273Passes Accurate409
84%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

BotafogoBotafogo
FluminenseFluminense
1660Elo Rating 1738
0.74Attack 1.70
1.65Defense 1.55
14%Hit Rate 56%
20.2Shots per Game 8.5
6.0Shots on Target 4.0
6.1Corners per Game 3.0
2.8Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

🔥Derby Match
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

BotafogoBotafogo
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.1 in first half)
FluminenseFluminense
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Botafogo 31%Draw 0%69% Fluminense
1.64Avg Goals
14%BTTS Rate
14%Over 2.5

Referee Profile

Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil · 24 matches analysed

5.1Avg Yellows
5.3Avg Cards
26.4Avg Fouls
Stricter than 90% of referees analysed

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo27176453:22+3157WWWWL
2PalmeirasPalmeiras27168347:21+2656WDDWL
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense27137741:31+1046DLDWD
4BahiaBahia271210542:33+946WWWWD
5FluminenseFluminense27129641:35+645LWDWW
6CruzeiroCruzeiro27126939:39042LWLWW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG26116935:31+439WLWDW
8CoritibaCoritiba27108937:38-138DLWWD
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino261061032:29+336DLLWD
10SantosSantos2698939:39035WWWDW
11BotafogoBotafogo27981041:43-235WDDLL
12Sao PauloSao Paulo26961131:30+133LWWLD
13VitoriaVitoria27961227:39-1233DWLLW
14CorinthiansCorinthians27881128:29-132LLLLL
15MirassolMirassol27781231:42-1129DWLDD
16GremioGremio27771330:38-828LLLWL
17Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama26771229:41-1228WLWLL
18InternacionalInternacional276101130:35-528WLLDD
19RemoRemo27581431:45-1423LLLLD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc26381528:52-2417LWLWD
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo2753:2257
2PalmeirasPalmeiras2747:2156
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense2741:3146
4BahiaBahia2742:3346
5FluminenseFluminense2741:3545
6CruzeiroCruzeiro2739:3942
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG2635:3139
8CoritibaCoritiba2737:3838
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino2632:2936
10SantosSantos2639:3935
11BotafogoBotafogo2741:4335
12Sao PauloSao Paulo2631:3033
13VitoriaVitoria2727:3933
14CorinthiansCorinthians2728:2932
15MirassolMirassol2731:4229
16GremioGremio2730:3828
17Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama2629:4128
18InternacionalInternacional2730:3528
19RemoRemo2731:4523
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc2628:5217
PromotionRelegation

Botafogo vs Fluminense Prediction

This Serie A meeting between Botafogo and Fluminense carries extra rivalry weight, and our AI model factors that context in alongside team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Serie A

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Key Factors for This Match

Botafogo and Fluminense have met 5 times recently, averaging 1.64 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.