Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction

Gremio
1-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Fluminense
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre· Edina Alves Batista, Brazil 26/07/2026
GremioGremio
1-1
Finished
FluminenseFluminense

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.59
SignalGOODModel46%RiskMediumGap+9.0%
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.59
SignalGOODModel43%RiskMediumGap+12.1%
Gremio Rest
2 days
Fluminense Rest
8 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
43%3.15
X
29%3.20
2
28%2.31
Double Chance
1X
72%1.59
X2
57%1.35
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.74
No
47%1.99
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.27 + 1.1 = 2.37
Over 1.5
71%1.31
Over 2.5
48%2.00
Over 3.5
26%3.50
Under 1.5
29%3.33
Under 2.5
52%1.80
Under 3.5
74%1.29
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.3 = 9.6
Over 8.5
60%1.62
Over 9.5
47%2.00
Over 10.5
32%2.50
Under 8.5
40%2.20
Under 9.5
53%1.73
Under 10.5
68%1.43
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.8 + 2.4 = 5.1
Over 3.5
74%1.20
Over 4.5
57%1.38
Under 3.5
26%4.10
Under 4.5
43%2.75

Match Events

12'HerculesFoul
13'GugaTripping
21'Guilherme Arana INRene out
65'Hulk(Penalty)
69'Thiago SilvaTripping
69'C. Pavon INDiego Caito out
69'E. Noriega INM. Braithwaite out
75'Hulk ING. Cano out
75'L. Acosta INNonato out
77'Carlos ViniciusUnsportsmanlike conduct
78'F. Amuzu INJ. Cabral out
78'Tete INJ. Enamorado out
79'A. CanobbioRoughing
80'Marlon INPedro Gabriel out
87'K. Serna INY. Soteldo out
87'Hercules INIgnacio out
89'Diego CaitoAssist: J. Cabral
90+2'J. Nardoni

Lineups

Gremio
4-1-4-1Coach: Luis Castro
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Coach: Francisco Zubeldia Luis
Gabriel Grando12G. GrandoGabriel Grando
Cristian Pavón7C. PavónCristian Pavón
Gustavo Martins6G. MartinsGustavo Martins
Walter Kannemann4W. KannemannWalter Kannemann
Marlon23MarlonMarlon
Erick Noriega19E. NoriegaErick Noriega
Tetê21TetêTetê
Mathias Villasanti20M. VillasantiMathias Villasanti
Juan Nardoni5J. NardoniJuan Nardoni
Francis Amuzu9F. AmuzuFrancis Amuzu
Carlos Vinícius95C. ViníciusCarlos Vinícius
Fábio1FábioFábio
Guga23GugaGuga
Thiago Silva3T. SilvaThiago Silva
Juan Pablo Freytes22J. Pablo FreytesJuan Pablo Freytes
Guilherme Arana13G. AranaGuilherme Arana
Martinelli8MartinelliMartinelli
Hércules35HérculesHércules
Kevin Serna90K. SernaKevin Serna
Luciano Acosta32L. AcostaLuciano Acosta
Agustín Canobbio17A. CanobbioAgustín Canobbio
Hulk7HulkHulk

Gremio Substitutes

24Thiago BeltrameG
54Pedro GabrielD
27Diego CaitoD
43Luis GuedesD
3Wagner LeonardoD
37Gabriel MecF
65Riquelme FreitasM
17DodiM
99José EnamoradoF
22Martin BraithwaiteF
30Matheus NascimentoF
77Jovane CabralF

Fluminense Substitutes

6RenêD
27Marcelo PitalugaG
2Samuel XavierD
21Igor RabelloD
4IgnácioD
46Júlio FidelisD
94OtávioM
28Riquelme FelipeF
30Yeferson SoteldoF
10GansoM
16NonatoM
14Germán CanoF

Match Stats

GremioFluminense
44%Ball Possession56%
2Corner Kicks1
0Yellow Cards2
6Total Shots3
2Shots on Goal1
2Shots off Goal1
4Shots Inside Box1
2Shots Outside Box2
2Blocked Shots1
7Fouls5
0Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves2
218Total Passes299
184Passes Accurate265
84%Pass Accuracy89%

Team Comparison

GremioGremio
FluminenseFluminense
1621Elo Rating 1717
1.69Attack 1.48
1.23Defense 1.35
31%Hit Rate 36%
11.2Shots per Game 7.6
4.8Shots on Target 3.3
3.1Corners per Game 2.0
3.6Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend81% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

GremioGremio
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FluminenseFluminense
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Gremio 0%Draw 17%83% Fluminense
2.78Avg Goals
81%BTTS Rate
81%Over 2.5

Recent Form

GremioGremio
0W1D4L
24/07/2026
BolívarGremio
32
L
18/07/2026
MirassolGremio
21
L
12/07/2026
GremioCruzeiro
13
L
30/05/2026
GremioCorinthians
13
L
27/05/2026
GremioAtletico Torque
22
D
FluminenseFluminense
2W2D1L
18/07/2026
FluminenseRB Bragantino
11
D
12/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
20
W
01/06/2026
CruzeiroFluminense
11
D
28/05/2026
FluminenseDeportivo La Guaira
31
W
24/05/2026
MirassolFluminense
10
L

Referee Profile

Edina Alves Batista, Brazil · 8 matches analysed

4.9Avg Yellows
5.2Avg Cards
24.3Avg Fouls
Stricter than 82% of referees analysed

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo27176453:22+3157WWWWL
2PalmeirasPalmeiras27168347:21+2656WDDWL
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense27137741:31+1046DLDWD
4BahiaBahia271210542:33+946WWWWD
5FluminenseFluminense27129641:35+645LWDWW
6CruzeiroCruzeiro27126939:39042LWLWW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG27117936:32+440DWLWD
8SantosSantos27108941:40+138WWWWD
9CoritibaCoritiba27108937:38-138DLWWD
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino261061032:29+336DLLWD
11BotafogoBotafogo28981141:45-435LWDDL
12Sao PauloSao Paulo26961131:30+133LWWLD
13VitoriaVitoria27961227:39-1233DWLLW
14CorinthiansCorinthians27881128:29-132LLLLL
15MirassolMirassol28881233:42-932WDWLD
16GremioGremio27771330:38-828LLLWL
17Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama26771229:41-1228WLWLL
18InternacionalInternacional276101130:35-528WLLDD
19RemoRemo28581532:47-1523LLLLL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc27391529:53-2418DLWLW
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo2753:2257
2PalmeirasPalmeiras2747:2156
3Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense2741:3146
4BahiaBahia2742:3346
5FluminenseFluminense2741:3545
6CruzeiroCruzeiro2739:3942
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG2736:3240
8SantosSantos2741:4038
9CoritibaCoritiba2737:3838
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino2632:2936
11BotafogoBotafogo2841:4535
12Sao PauloSao Paulo2631:3033
13VitoriaVitoria2727:3933
14CorinthiansCorinthians2728:2932
15MirassolMirassol2833:4232
16GremioGremio2730:3828
17Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama2629:4128
18InternacionalInternacional2730:3528
19RemoRemo2832:4723
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc2729:5318
PromotionRelegation

Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Serie A fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Serie A

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Key Factors for This Match

Gremio have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Gremio and Fluminense have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.78 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.