Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction

Gremio
1-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Fluminense
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre·Edina Alves Batista, Brazil 26/07/2026
GremioGremio
1-1
Finished
FluminenseFluminense

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.59
SignalGOODModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+9.0%
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.59
SignalHIGHModel43%SurpriseMediumGap+12.1%
Gremio Rest
2 days
Fluminense Rest
8 days

Gremio vs Fluminense: result, form and history

Gremio and Fluminense drew 1-1 in the Serie A on 26 Jul 2026. Fluminense had gone in with the better form, having won 2 of their previous five against none for Gremio.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
43%3.15
X
29%3.20
2
28%2.31
Double Chance
1X
72%1.59
X2
57%1.35
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.74
No
47%1.98
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.27 + 1.1 = 2.37
Over 1.5
71%1.32
Over 2.5
48%2.02
Over 3.5
26%3.50
Under 1.5
29%3.30
Under 2.5
52%1.80
Under 3.5
74%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.3 = 9.6
Over 8.5
60%1.63
Over 9.5
47%2.00
Over 10.5
32%2.53
Under 8.5
40%2.17
Under 9.5
53%1.72
Under 10.5
68%1.42
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.8 + 2.4 = 5.1
Over 3.5
74%1.26
Over 4.5
57%1.36
Under 3.5
26%3.25
Under 4.5
43%2.67

Match Events

12'HerculesFoul
13'GugaTripping
21'Guilherme Arana INRene out
65'Hulk(Penalty)
69'Thiago SilvaTripping
69'C. Pavon INDiego Caito out
69'E. Noriega INM. Braithwaite out
75'Hulk ING. Cano out
75'L. Acosta INNonato out
77'Carlos ViniciusUnsportsmanlike conduct
78'F. Amuzu INJ. Cabral out
78'Tete INJ. Enamorado out
79'A. CanobbioRoughing
80'Marlon INPedro Gabriel out
87'K. Serna INY. Soteldo out
87'Hercules INIgnacio out
89'Diego CaitoAssist: J. Cabral
90+2'J. Nardoni

Lineups

Gremio
4-1-4-1Coach: Luis Castro
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Coach: Francisco Zubeldia Luis
Avg rating6.73
Avg rating6.60
Gabriel Grando6.912G. Grando
Cristian Pavón7.27C. Pavón
Gustavo Martins6.96G. Martins
Walter KannemannC6.64W. Kannemann
Marlon7.023Marlon
Erick Noriega6.319E. Noriega
Tetê6.721Tetê
Mathias Villasanti6.720M. Villasanti
Juan Nardoni6.35J. Nardoni
Francis Amuzu6.99F. Amuzu
Carlos Vinícius6.595C. Vinícius
Fábio6.91Fábio
Guga6.323Guga
Thiago SilvaC6.93T. Silva
Juan Pablo Freytes6.922J. Pablo Freytes
Guilherme Arana6.513G. Arana
Martinelli6.68Martinelli
Hércules6.635Hércules
Kevin Serna6.390K. Serna
Luciano Acosta6.732L. Acosta
Agustín Canobbio6.617A. Canobbio
Hulk6.67Hulk

Gremio Substitutes

24Thiago Beltrame
54Pedro Gabriel80'for Marlon
27Diego Caito69'for C. Pavon89'
43Luis Guedes
3Wagner Leonardo
37Gabriel Mec
65Riquelme Freitas
17Dodi
99José Enamorado78'for Tete
22Martin Braithwaite69'for E. Noriega
30Matheus Nascimento
77Jovane Cabral78'for F. Amuzu

Fluminense Substitutes

6Renê21'for Guilherme Arana6.3
27Marcelo Pitaluga
2Samuel Xavier
21Igor Rabello
4Ignácio87'for Hercules
46Júlio Fidelis
94Otávio
28Riquelme Felipe
30Yeferson Soteldo87'for K. Serna
10Ganso
16Nonato75'for L. Acosta
14Germán Cano75'for Hulk

Match Stats

GremioFluminense
51%Ball Possession49%
9Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards4
12Total Shots7
5Shots on Goal3
2Shots off Goal3
7Shots Inside Box5
5Shots Outside Box2
5Blocked Shots1
12Fouls9
1Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves4
466Total Passes476
406Passes Accurate416
87%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

GremioGremio
FluminenseFluminense
1668Elo Rating 1729
1.56Attack 1.27
1.63Defense 1.66
59%Hit Rate 46%
12.3Shots per Game 11.6
4.3Shots on Target 3.7
5.9Corners per Game 5.8
2.0Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

GremioGremio
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
FluminenseFluminense
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

GremioGremio5Wins · 50%
Draws110%
FluminenseFluminense4Wins · 40%
2.7Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A28/01/2026
FluminenseGremio
21
Serie A03/12/2025
GremioFluminense
12
Serie A03/08/2025
FluminenseGremio
10
Serie A02/11/2024
FluminenseGremio
22
CONMEBOL Libertadores21/08/2024
FluminenseGremio
4221
CONMEBOL Libertadores14/08/2024
GremioFluminense
21
Serie A30/06/2024
GremioFluminense
10
Serie A07/12/2023
FluminenseGremio
23
Serie A13/08/2023
GremioFluminense
21
Serie A10/11/2021
GremioFluminense
10

Recent Form

GremioGremio
3W2D5L
24/07/2026
BolívarGremio
32
L
18/07/2026
MirassolGremio
21
L
12/07/2026
GremioCruzeiro
13
L
30/05/2026
GremioCorinthians
13
L
27/05/2026
GremioAtletico Torque
22
D
24/05/2026
GremioSantos
32
W
21/05/2026
GremioPalestino
20
W
17/05/2026
BahiaGremio
11
D
15/05/2026
ConfiançaGremio
03
W
11/05/2026
GremioFlamengo
01
L
FluminenseFluminense
5W4D1L
18/07/2026
FluminenseRB Bragantino
11
D
12/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
20
W
01/06/2026
CruzeiroFluminense
11
D
28/05/2026
FluminenseDeportivo La Guaira
31
W
24/05/2026
MirassolFluminense
10
L
20/05/2026
FluminenseBolívar
21
W
17/05/2026
FluminenseSao Paulo
21
W
13/05/2026
FluminenseOperario-PR
21
W
09/05/2026
FluminenseVitoria
22
D
07/05/2026
Independ. RivadaviaFluminense
11
D

Referee Profile

Edina Alves Batista137 matches

5.00Cards per match
4.78Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
27.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Edina Alves Batista5.00
Other referees4.97

5.00 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.97).

Cards come from 128 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Gremio vs Fluminense forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Gremio and Fluminense in the Serie A table

The table shows a wide gap: Fluminense are 4th in the Serie A, while Gremio sit 18th, 20 points behind. League goal record so far: Gremio 38-47, Fluminense 55-42. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Gremio have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.