FC Thun vs FC Lugano Prediction

FC Thun
2-3
Finished
HT 1-1
FC Lugano
Cornaredo, Lugano 25/10/2026
FC ThunFC Thun
2-3
Finished
FC LuganoFC Lugano

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.33
SignalGOODModel57%SurpriseMediumGap-0.7%
FC Thun Rest
2 days
FC Lugano Rest
2 days

FC Thun vs FC Lugano: the result in context

FC Lugano beat FC Thun 3-2 in the Super League on 25 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: FC Lugano had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for FC Thun.

FC Lugano have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.6 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
22%3.77
X
21%4.13
2
57%1.77
Double Chance
1X
43%1.98
X2
79%1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%1.36
No
35%2.88
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.12 + 2.17 = 3.29
Over 1.5
86%1.07
Over 2.5
70%1.33
Over 3.5
49%1.90
Under 1.5
14%6.93
Under 2.5
30%3.00
Under 3.5
51%1.83
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.2 + 6 = 10.2
Over 8.5
67%1.43
Over 9.5
55%1.73
Over 10.5
44%2.15
Under 8.5
33%2.57
Under 9.5
45%1.98
Under 10.5
56%1.59
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 1.7 = 4.1
Over 3.5
58%-
Over 4.5
39%-
Under 3.5
42%-
Under 4.5
61%-

Match Events

34'Dereck MoncadaAssist: Hannes Delcroix
34'Goal confirmedDereck Moncada
37'Nassim Zoukit
38'Elias PihlstromFoul
44'Damian KelvinFoul
45'Louis Immanuel Passavant INMattias Käit out
45'Damian Kelvin INDaniel Dos Santos Correia out
45'Elias Pihlstrom INMattia Zanotti out
49'Uran BislimiAssist: Daniel Dos Santos Correia
52'Nico MaierFoul
60'Dereck Moncada INMartim Marques out
65'Furkan Dursun INNoah Christoffersson out
73'Kevin Behrens INAlbian Ajeti out
74'Nico Maier INPatrik Kristal out
76'Albian AjetiAssist: Lars Lukas Mai
81'Nils·Reichmuth INA. Ilic out
81'Brighton Labeau INRiccardo Braschi out
84'Uran Bislimi INAhmed Kendouci out
85'Fabio FehrFoul
88'Riccardo Braschi(Penalty)

Lineups

FC Thun
4-4-2Coach: Gian Luca Privitelli
FC Lugano
3-4-1-2Coach: M. Croci-Torti
Avg rating6.29
Avg rating6.59
N. Steffen5.71N. Steffen
F. Fehr6.247F. Fehr
L. Passavant6.354L. Passavant
N. Bürgy6.05N. Bürgy
T. Strannegård5.918T. Strannegård
N. Reichmuth6.770N. Reichmuth
J. Roth6.116J. Roth
N. Zoukit7.413N. Zoukit
N. Maier5.330N. Maier
F. Dursun6.39F. Dursun
B. Labeau6.496B. Labeau
D. von Ballmoos7.616D. von Ballmoos
D. Kelvin5.54D. Kelvin
L. Mai6.717L. Mai
H. Delcroix6.23H. Delcroix
B. Karimov6.92B. Karimov
U. Bislimi7.925U. Bislimi
A. Grgić6.38A. Grgić
Y. Cimignani6.021Y. Cimignani
D. Moncada8.230D. Moncada
K. Behrens6.591K. Behrens
E. Pihlström5.824E. Pihlström

FC Thun Substitutes

26N. Christoffersson65'for Furkan Dursun6.5
20R. Braschi81'for Brighton Labeau88'7.8
17A. Balaruban
37L. Dähler
52Adam Ilic81'for Nils·Reichmuth5.8
15P. Kristal74'for Nico Maier5.9
14M. Käit45'for Louis Immanuel Passavant6.4
80S. Lengen
25T. Spycher

FC Lugano Substitutes

9A. Ajeti73'for Kevin Behrens76'7.5
7E. Alioski
18J. Bichsel
22B. Castro
26Martim Marques60'for Dereck Moncada6.1
27Daniel Dos Santos45'for Damian Kelvin6.2
28F. Gebhardt
14A. Kendouci84'for Uran Bislimi6.1
46M. Zanotti45'for Elias Pihlstrom6.3

Match Stats

FC ThunFC Lugano
52%Ball Possession48%
6Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards2
17Total Shots19
9Shots on Goal6
5Shots off Goal7
14Shots Inside Box11
3Shots Outside Box8
3Blocked Shots6
15Fouls15
6Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves7
395Total Passes375
313Passes Accurate290
79%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

FC ThunFC Thun
FC LuganoFC Lugano
1541Elo Rating 1870
0.84Attack 4.07
1.50Defense 2.07
14%Hit Rate 100%
11.2Shots per Game 16.0
3.6Shots on Target 6.1
3.5Corners per Game 4.8
2.6Cards per Game 3.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.29 goals
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

FC ThunFC Thun
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FC LuganoFC Lugano
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

FC ThunFC Thun1Wins · 20%
Draws00%
FC LuganoFC Lugano4Wins · 80%
2.6Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Super League25/04/2026
FC ThunFC Lugano
01
Super League04/04/2026
FC LuganoFC Thun
10
Super League22/11/2025
FC ThunFC Lugano
01
Super League27/07/2025
FC LuganoFC Thun
12
Schweizer Cup10/02/2022
FC ThunFC Lugano
34

League Table

Super League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC LuganoFC Lugano11101034:9+2531WWWWD
2BSC Young BoysBSC Young Boys1174035:18+1725WWWDD
3FC SionFC Sion1171324:17+722WLDWW
4FC ZurichFC Zurich1152420:23-317WWDWD
5Servette FCServette FC1151516:14+216WWLWW
6FC ST. GallenFC ST. Gallen1151517:21-416LWWLL
7FC Basel 1893FC Basel 18931142517:20-314DLLWL
8FC LuzernFC Luzern1133518:24-612LLWLD
9FC ThunFC Thun1131719:30-1110LLWLL
10FC VaduzFC Vaduz1130822:23-19LWLLW
11GrasshoppersGrasshoppers1123613:26-139DLLLW
12LausanneLausanne111377:17-106LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FC LuganoFC Lugano1134:931
2BSC Young BoysBSC Young Boys1135:1825
3FC SionFC Sion1124:1722
4FC ZurichFC Zurich1120:2317
5Servette FCServette FC1116:1416
6FC ST. GallenFC ST. Gallen1117:2116
7FC Basel 1893FC Basel 18931117:2014
8FC LuzernFC Luzern1118:2412
9FC ThunFC Thun1119:3010
10FC VaduzFC Vaduz1122:239
11GrasshoppersGrasshoppers1113:269
12LausanneLausanne117:176
Relegation

About the FC Thun vs FC Lugano forecast

The forecasts for this Super League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

FC Thun and FC Lugano in the Super League table

The table shows a wide gap: FC Lugano are 1st in the Super League, while FC Thun sit 9th, 21 points behind. League goal record so far: FC Thun 19-30, FC Lugano 34-9. The full standings are on the Super League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

FC Lugano have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.