Finland vs San Marino Prediction

Finland
-
15/11/2026
18:00
San Marino
Bolt Arena, Helsinki·Georgi Nikolov Kabakov
FinlandFinland
15/11/202618:00
San MarinoSan Marino

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
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Finland Rest
2 days
San Marino Rest
2 days

Finland vs San Marino in numbers

Finland have won 2 of their last five, while San Marino are still looking for a first win in that run. The match is played in the UEFA Nations League on 15 Nov 2026.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 3 previous meetings averaged 5.3 goals, and both sides scored in 1 of them. Referee Georgi Nikolov Kabakov averages 5.46 cards a game, 0.70 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
1.03
X
15.50
2
51.00
Double Chance
1X
-
X2
11.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
3.75
No
1.22
Goals
Over 1.5
1.04
Over 2.5
1.20
Over 3.5
1.56
Under 1.5
8.50
Under 2.5
4.00
Under 3.5
2.27
Corners
Over 8.5
1.99
Over 9.5
2.60
Over 10.5
3.48
Under 8.5
1.74
Under 9.5
1.41
Under 10.5
1.21
Cards
Over 3.5
-
Over 4.5
-
Under 3.5
-
Under 4.5
-
Predictions for this match are lockedA free account opens the match result market. Pro opens every goal market.

Team Comparison

FinlandFinland
San MarinoSan Marino
1458Elo Rating 1059
1.62Attack 0.41
2.36Defense 0.00
39%Hit Rate 0%
14.1Shots per Game 6.2
4.6Shots on Target 2.1
6.4Corners per Game 2.2
1.5Cards per Game 3.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+398 Elo
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

FinlandFinland
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
San MarinoSan Marino
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

FinlandFinland3Wins · 100%
Draws00%
San MarinoSan Marino0Wins · 0%
5.3Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored1 of 3
100%3+ goals3 of 3

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League26/09/2026
San MarinoFinland
07
Euro Championship - Qualification20/11/2023
San MarinoFinland
12
Euro Championship - Qualification19/06/2023
FinlandSan Marino
60

Recent Form

FinlandFinland
3W1D6L
12/11/2026
AlbaniaFinland
20
L
06/10/2026
BelarusFinland
10
L
03/10/2026
FinlandAlbania
21
W
29/09/2026
FinlandBelarus
00
D
26/09/2026
San MarinoFinland
07
W
05/06/2026
HungaryFinland
21
L
31/05/2026
GermanyFinland
40
L
14/11/2025
FinlandMalta
01
L
12/10/2025
NetherlandsFinland
40
L
09/10/2025
FinlandLithuania
21
W
San MarinoSan Marino
0W0D10L
12/11/2026
San MarinoBelarus
02
L
06/10/2026
AlbaniaSan Marino
21
L
03/10/2026
BelarusSan Marino
40
L
29/09/2026
San MarinoAlbania
03
L
26/09/2026
San MarinoFinland
07
L
09/06/2026
AzerbaijanSan Marino
21
L
05/06/2026
San MarinoBangladesh
12
L
18/11/2025
RomaniaSan Marino
71
L
12/10/2025
San MarinoCyprus
04
L
09/10/2025
AustriaSan Marino
100
L

Referee Profile

Georgi Nikolov Kabakov226 matches

5.46Cards per match
5.20Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
24.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Georgi Nikolov Kabakov5.46
Other referees4.76

5.46 cards a match, 0.70 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.76).

Cards come from 157 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1AlbaniaAlbania540110:3+712WWLWW
2BelarusBelarus53117:2+510WWWDL
3FinlandFinland52129:4+57LLWDW
4San MarinoSan Marino50051:18-170LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1AlbaniaAlbania510:312
2BelarusBelarus57:210
3FinlandFinland59:47
4San MarinoSan Marino51:180
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About the Finland vs San Marino forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Finland and San Marino in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Finland are 3rd in the UEFA Nations League, 7 points ahead of San Marino in 4th. League goal record so far: Finland 9-4, San Marino 1-18. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.