Belgium vs Italy Prediction, H2H & Stats - 15 Nov 2026

UEFA Nations League

World · League A - 6

Cup

Belgium

-

15/11/2026

20:45

Italy

Roi Baudouin, Brussels·Espen Eskas

15/11/202620:45

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality

Complete

Match Importance

5.0 / 10

AI Best Pick

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Signal Model Surprise Gap

Belgium Rest

3 days

Italy Rest

3 days

Belgium vs Italy: what the numbers say

Both sides arrive in good form: Belgium have won 3 of their last five and Italy 3. The match is played in the UEFA Nations League on 15 Nov 2026.

Italy have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 2.5 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result

1

2.11

X

3.75

2

3.10

Double Chance

1X

1.35

X2

1.71

Both Teams to Score

Yes

1.57

No

2.33

Goals

Over 1.5

1.19

Over 2.5

1.65

Over 3.5

2.62

Under 1.5

4.47

Under 2.5

2.25

Under 3.5

1.47

Corners

Over 8.5

1.51

Over 9.5

1.89

Over 10.5

2.45

Under 8.5

2.32

Under 9.5

1.82

Under 10.5

1.47

Cards

Projected Cards: + =

Over 3.5

-1.33

Over 4.5

-1.91

Under 3.5

-3.15

Under 4.5

-1.80

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Belgium

Italy

1788Elo Rating 1742

1.43Attack 1.96

1.45Defense 1.83

39%Hit Rate 46%

11.4Shots per Game 14.7

4.8Shots on Target 5.1

2.9Corners per Game 3.3

3.0Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Belgium

Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Italy

Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

Belgium1Wins · 17%

Draws117%

Italy

4Wins · 66%

2.5Avg Goals

50%Both teams scored3 of 6

50%3+ goals3 of 6

Previous meetings

14/11/2024

Belgium

Italy

01

10/10/2024

Italy

Belgium

22

10/10/2021

Italy

Belgium

21

02/07/2021

Belgium

Italy

12

13/06/2016

Belgium

Italy

02

Recent Form

28/09/2026

Türkiye

Italy

14

W

07/06/2026

Greece

Italy

01

W

03/06/2026

Luxembourg

Italy

01

W

31/03/2026

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Italy

4111

L

26/03/2026

Italy

Northern Ireland

20

W

16/11/2025

Italy

Norway

14

L

Referee Profile

Espen Eskas168 matches

3.58Cards per match

3.50Yellow cards per match

0.08Red cards per match

21.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Espen Eskas3.58

Other referees3.68

3.58 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.68).

Cards come from 152 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	Pts	Form
1	Italy	5	3	1	1	11:6	+5	10	WWDWL
2	France	5	3	1	1	8:5	+3	10	LWDWW
3	Belgium	5	3	0	2	8:6	+2	9	WLWLW
4	Türkiye	5	0	0	5	3:13	-10	0	LLLLL

#	Team	MP	G	Pts
1	Italy	5	11:6	10
2	France	5	8:5	10
3	Belgium	5	8:6	9
4	Türkiye	5	3:13	0

Relegation

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About the Belgium vs Italy forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Belgium and Italy in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Italy are 1st in the UEFA Nations League, 1 point ahead of Belgium in 3rd. League goal record so far: Belgium 8-6, Italy 11-6. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Belgium have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Italy have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.